Fantasy Football Strategy 2012

 UPDATED 2014 GUIDE

I have been analyzing and writing about fantasy football since June. I had written about my fantasy team last year, however I was not as into the analytical and strategy side as I currently am. The fantasy draft season is almost over and I have decided to compile links to my various articles on one page.

These numbers are based off of fantasy points from last year. I obtained the stats I used to make my calculations from fftoolbox.com .

• Top 5 QB's =386.66 QB's 5-10=288.24
• Point difference of 98.42
• Top 12=323.05 13-24=203.225
• Point Difference 119.82
  

• Top 5 RB's= 264.58 RB's 5-10=195.08
• Point difference of 69.5 
• Top 12=221.88 13-24=163.1
• Point Difference of 58.78
  

• Top 5 WR=218.48 5-10=178.44
• Point Difference=40.04
• Top 12=192.15 Next 12=145.57
• Point Difference= 46.57
  

• Top 5 TE=165.92 5-10=116.26
• Point Difference=49.66
• Top 12=134.65 13-24=81.76
• Point Difference=52.89
  

These numbers could be replicated using Yahoo's Points, ESPN's Points, really any point system unless it was horribly balanced. These numbers are the foundation of how I draft. The key to these numbers is the point differences. It is important to have a solid all around team. Ideally you would have the best player at every position. That is simply not possible. Point differences give us plenty of essential information that can help with forming strategies. These numbers are why I will personally not draft a WR in the second round of a fantasy draft, the only exception for me is Calvin Johnson. These numbers are why I believe it is key to have a elite quarterback. These numbers are why I believe you need two solid running backs, with the hopes of having one in the top 10. These numbers are why I believe Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham warrant early round selections.

2012 Fantasy Football Strategy Articles

Quarterback Importance: Why Aaron Rodgers is worth a high pick 

Tight End Drafting and Value: Gronk and Jimmy

Importance of Running Backs

The Calvin Johnson Rule: Wide Receiver Drafting

My 10 Person Live Draft with Max PPG

General Fantasy Football Tips

10th Pick.10 Person League: Various Strategies (Mock Drafts)

General Strategy Mock Drafts (From June some picks I would no longer make, strategy still solid)

Gronk and Jimmy: Elite Tight Ends

Tight End Strategy Fantasy Football 2012

Rob Gronkowski had 17 receiving touchdowns last year, and 1327 yards receiving. Jimmy Graham had 11 touchdowns and 1310 yard receiving. They both had exceptional years. This year Gronkowski is predicted to put up 195 points. That would put him 1 point ahead of Julio Jones. This would make him the second best non QB or non RB option. The other interesting aspect of the Tight End position is there are only so many who produce many points. We will examine this soon. Before that we will look at how strong Graham and Gronkowski performed last year.

2011 Fantasy Points from Yahoo

Top 5 WR

1. Calvin Johnson 263.20
2. Jordy Nelson 216.30
3. Wes Welker 213.90
4. Victor Cruz 205.90
5. Larry Fitzgerald 189.10

Top 5 TE

1. Rob Gronkowski 240.90
2. Jimmy Graham 195
3. Aaron Hernandez 135.50
4. Tony Gonzalez 129.50
5. Jermichael Finley 124.70

As you can see Gronkowski put up tons of fantasy points. He was second to Calvin Johnson in terms of non RB/QB players. In 2011, Rob Gronkowski had a better fantasy year then EVERY SINGLE WR besides Calvin Johnson.  Below are the predictions for this year, all courtesy of Yahoo.

 2012 Predictions from Yahoo

Top 5 WR

1. Calvin Johnson 252
2. Julio Jones 194
3. Hakeem Nicks 181
4. Greg Jennings 180
5. Larry Fitzgerald 177

Top 5 TE

1. Rob Gronkowski 195
2. Antonio Gates 174
3. Jimmy Graham 173
4. Aaron Hernandez 141
5. Jason Witten 126

I am unsure if Gates will put up 174 points this year. Even if he does, the Tight End position has a steep drop off once it goes beyond the top three. Elite tight ends are worth a second round pick. Gronkowski and Graham can give you points that the high end receivers do, the other players in your league will not have the same kind of production from the Tight Ends they draft. The point difference between the elite tight ends and the rest is large. If you see Rob Gronkowski in the second round and believe he will help your team draft him. In a ten man league I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers in the first, Gronkowski in the second, and Marshawn Lynch in the third. That was an extremely successful draft. If you can draft Gronkowski or Graham in the second round do it. You can find 150-170 point wide receivers to meet your needs, there is not an abundance of Tight Ends.  Gronkowski could put up well over 195 fantasy points, Graham and Gates also have the potential for big years. Aaron Hernandez is also a good later round option. Tight Ends are an interesting position in fantasy. There are only so many decent ones. It is an important position to have a decent player, but it is an incredible advantage if you can get an elite one.

The Importance Of Running Backs

Averages!

• Top 5 RB's= 264.58 RB's 5-10=195.08
• Point difference of 69.5 
• Top 12=221.88 13-24=163.1
• Point Difference of 58.78
  

• Top 5 WR=218.48 5-10=178.44
• Point Difference=40.04
• Top 12=192.15 Next 12=145.57
• Point Difference= 46.57
  

The numbers above display the bigger gap in talent at the RB postion compared to WR. There are many mid range wide receivers who can get you a healthy amount of points. Running backs are a more limited commodity. The 20^th ranked RB by predicted points is BenJarvus Green-Ellis at 171 fantasy points. The 1^st ranked runningback is Arian Foster at 305 points, 2^nd is Lesean McCoy at 266 points. If you are in a league with a flex I would recommend attempting to draft three starting runningbacks. Runningbacks who get a lot of carries and touchdowns put up more consistent numbers from week to week then secondary receivers. It is important to draft a runningback in the first two rounds. This is especially true in a 12 man league. In 12 men leagues runningbacks go extremely fast. I participated in three mock drafts recently. These are the runningbacks who were drafted in the first two rounds of twelve team mock drafts.

Running Backs Drafted In 1st and 2nd Round

Arian Foster

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy

Darren Mcfadden

Chris Johnson

Matt Forte

Marshawn Lynch

DeMarco Murray

Adrian Peterson

Steven Jackson

Maurice Jones Drew

Jamal Charles

Fred Jackson

Ryan Mathews

You want atleast one of these runningbacks on your team. Even if you plan to use a WR in your flex spot, it is still of great importance to have atleast one good runningback. Matt Forte is predicted to put up 218 points. Shonn Greene is predicted to put up 171. The difference in having Matt Forte to Shonn Greene is much more significant then having Brandon Marshall 155 points compared to Wes Welker 136 points. It is much easier to find receivers who can fulfill your needs later in the draft then it is to find running backs.

Quarterback Importance: Why Aaron Rodgers is worth a 1st round pick

The traditional view in fantasy football has been to grab a high point producing runningback in the first round. I recently grabbed Aaron Rodgers as the fifth pick in a ten man league. The league rewards 6 points for TD's, some leagues only reward 4 points. Regardless of the points given for touchdowns, an elite quarterback is a serious asset to your fantasy team. I pulled the numbers from the fftoolbox.com with their 2011 fantasy points. I was able to generate these numbers.

Averages!

• Top 5 QB's =386.66
• QB's 5-10=288.24
• Point difference of 98.42

The average of the Top 5 QB's is 386.66, the average for the 5^th to 10^th fantasy point producers is 288.24. It is clearly a big difference in having a top 5 QB on your team versus someone from the 6 to 10 range.

I believe Aaron Rodgers is going to have a great year. On Yahoo he is predicted to put up 425 points, the next best quarterback is 361 points (Drew Brees). Rodgers is definitely worth a first round pick. I also believe Brady, and possibly Brees warrant an early pick. Brady and Brees have different projections depending on which website you reference, I personally believe Brady will have the better year. Drafting a QB in the first depends on how many teams are in your league. In a 10 man league I would definitely take Rodgers or Brady in the first. In a 12 man league I would take Rodgers or Brady but be worried about my running game due to the two extra people picking in the first round. In a ten man league there will be opportunities to take a RB in the second round. In a 12 man league the options might be a bit more sparse. Aaron Rodgers is a good draft pick. The difference between having him and a guy like Matt Ryan is over 100 projected points. Taking a quarterback in the first round is fine, you just have to be prepared to draft very intelligently. You have to have several potential picks each round, and you CAN NOT ignore your runningback situation. Here are the Top 10 Quarterbacks for this year based off Yahoo projections. I personally believe Tom Brady is projected to low.  To summarize; it is a good thing to draft an elite quarterback, just be prepared to draft smart, and look for valuable players in every round.

Top 10 Quarterbacks based off Yahoo Predictions

1. Aaron Rodgers 426
2. Drew Brees 361
3. Matt Stafford 337
4. Cam Newton 335
5. Tom Brady 332
6. Peyton Manning 310
7. Matt Ryan 309
8. Tony Romo 304
9. Phillip Rivers 282
10. Eli Manning 276

The Calvin Johnson Rule and Wide Receiver Drafting

The Calvin Johnson Rule

And it was written... I will not draft a wide receiver in the first two rounds... Unless he bears the nickname MEGATRON. 

If Calvin Johnson does what he is predicted to do this year, he will put up the 20^th most fantasy points. Who is in front of him? 17 quarterbacks and 2 runningbacks. Yahoo believes he will put up 249 fantasy points. The next closest WR is over 50 points behind him, it's Julio Jones. Calvin Johnson is the only wide receiver who I believe warrants a draft pick in the first two rounds. I have seen Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall go in the second round. The problem with grabbing receivers in the second round is you are missing out on other more important commodities. The point difference amongst the average of the Top 5 WR vs the 6-10 WR is the smallest. Whether or not you think Marshall and Julio Jones will have big years, it is only really worth taking either of those WR's if you think they will put up Calvin Johnson like numbers. I would much rather grab a runningback or elite quarterback in the first and second rounds and then rely on receivers like Percy Harvin, Wes Welker, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker. There are plenty of great receivers who can be had in the third and fourth rounds. Don't waste a pick in the first two, unless it's Calvin Johnson. You will see from the numbers below that Calvin is truly an exceptional point producer and far exceeds other wide receivers.

Last Years Top 5 WR (Yahoo Fantasy Points)

• Calvin Johnson 263.20
• Jordy Nelson 216.30
• Wes Welker 213.90
• Victor Cruz 205.90
• Larry Fitzgerald 189.10

Top 5 WR Predicted Points 2012 (Yahoo Fantasy Points)

• Calvin Johnson 252
• Julio Jones 194
• Hakeem Nicks 181
• Greg Jennings 180
• Larry Fitzgerald 177

Waiver Pick Up, Upcoming Draft

After my draft I realized I did not have a strong back up CB. A person in my league dropped Jason McCourty so I picked him up. Tamba Hali is facing a one game suspension and my general defensive players are strong. McCourty was a great pick up for me. If you see a player in free agency who you believe will aide your team pick him up! The league I just picked up McCourty in has no waiver limit, so there is no risk. However even if you have a limit, as long as it is not ridiculously low, pick up players. If you see a great guy in the free agency pool add him to your team! Don't be attached to the late round guy you drafted who turns out to not fit on your team. Upgrade if you can.  I am predicted to go 11-2, best in my league. My team for that league can be seen in my previous post. I am drafting a team on September 3rd. It will be in a 12 man league with a flex. It will be a much more difficult draft then my last one. I will post about it as soon as the draft is done! Good luck everybody!

10 Man Live Draft. IDP. Max PPG.

I used Max PPG when I drafted my fantasy team. It was a live draft, ten man league with the following positions required:

• 1 Quarterback
• 2 Running Backs
• 3 Wide Receivers
• 1 Tight End
• 3 Defensive Players any position
• 2 Defensive Backs
• 1 Kicker
• 6 Bench spots

 The host typed the names into a notepad document which was displayed on the TV. Using a laptop and Max PPG I had everything conveniently right in front of me. Most people resorted to printed lists with projections, or notes on players they had stored on laptops. I found Max PPG was an excellent tool to have on my side. Me and two other draftees near me referenced it quite frequently. It is great have the ability to see the predicted points positionally whenever you want. You also have the tool of seeing other teams drafted players and can try to guess what they might do next. Here is the team I drated.

Starting QB: Aaron  Rodgers
Starting Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch , Ryan Mathews
Starting Wide Receivers: Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Eric Decker
Starting Tight End: Rob Gronkowski

Starting Defense: Chad Greenway, Brian Cushing, Jared Allen
Starting Defensive Backs: Roman Harper, Greg Toler
Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski
Bench: Titus Young, Isaac Redman, Carson Palmer, Denarius Moore, James Harrison, Tamba Hali

I had the fifth pick of the draft. I initially took Aaron Rodgers. My second pick was Rob Gronkowski. My third pick was Marshawn Lynch. After that I was able to snag my receivers, my second running back and my other players in great positions. Max PPG and my own drafting strategy allowed me to obtain players that should not have been around when I was able to draft them. I was able to draft Ryan Matthews in the third round, Andre Johnson in the fourth, Wes Welker in the fifth. I drafted Eric Decker absurdly late. Jared Allan was almost my last pick. I had my eyes on players who were not being drafted, hoping they would fall to me and they frequently did. Max PPG gives you an amazing draft advantage compared to the pen and paper method. I was able to fill my team, and while other people were fixated on fulfilling certain positional needs, I was able to snag players who should not have been around.  I have written about my own philosophies on drafting in other posts. Combining those with the great tool allowed me to draft an excellent team. While people were drafting the best defensive players absurdly high I was able to sit back and analyze the situation. I did not draft players when there were many similar point producing players available.  My emphasis has never been wide receivers. However I was able to draft a stellar receiving core without taking a receiver in the first three rounds.  I highly advise checking out http://www.maxppg.com It will be a great addition to your fantasy football drafting.

General Fantasy Football Tips

I have decided to provide some tips that I feel can assist anyone in any fantasy football league. These tips are essential to success regardless of the format of your league.

Understand The Scoring System/Mandatory Positions

It is important to know your leagues scoring system. Does your league give points per receptions? Do you use individual defensive players? Both of these things are example of elements that can change the value of the players being drafted, and how many fantasy points they will score.

Don't Play With Personal Bias

I am a huge Arizona Cardinals fan. I have loved them since I was about six years old. Fortunately I don't play with personal bias. Therefore I will not take Larry Fitzgerald in the second round when it makes more sense for me to draft someone at another position. Is he my favorite player? Yes. Will I go out of the way to draft him? No.  Attempting to fill your fantasy team with your favorite players might be fun, but it will not allow you to win. I can think of someone in my league who is going to draft without really examining the stats and going off his own personal biases and opinions with little research. I would bet on him not winning the league.

Don't Over Think Bye Weeks

Try to draft a good team. Don't worry about when your bye weeks occur. The following article explains why.
http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/bye_weeks.htm
If you read the article you will see that the impact bye weeks has on your overall season record is negligible.  The site tested:

•  All starters are off on the same week.

• All starters are off on different weeks.

•   No starters from the same position are off on the same week; top QB, RB, WR and TE are off on the same week.

• No more than two starters are off at the same time and none at the same position.

•   Four starters are off one week and three are off on another week.

Every single combination finished within 0.02 points of eight wins. Just draft players who will succeed, forget about the bye week.

Draft A Runningback In The First Two Rounds

Runningbacks are a commodity that quickly vanish from fantasy drafts. It is extremely important to not have a hole at runningback. Whether you are in a flex league or a strict three wide receiver league you can not completely ignore the running game. http://www.mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/06/fantasy-football-strategy-2012-general.html This article I have written explains the various advantages to drafting the different positions and which to emphasize. To summarize there are not many elite halfbacks, so try to get one.

Be Flexible/Pay Attention To The Draft Board

It is good to go into a draft with a plan of action. However it is important to have the ability to adapt and change your course of action during the draft. If you plan on getting a wideout in a certain round but see that all the Runningbacks are being taken it might be time to draft a runningback.

Do A Mock Draft

 Mock Drafts are a great practice run through of the actual draft. I have done plenty of them this year. They have really given me an excellent idea of when players typically get drafted and some of the trends that happen during drafts.

Try To Find Players Who Can Fulfill Your Needs In Later Rounds

I constantly see people drafting wide receivers to early in the draft. Examine mock drafts or at least do some planning as to where you can fufill your needs. An example of a player I have examined who can help my team from a later draft place is Donald Brown. I also believe Reggie Wayne is a decent late draft wide receiver. It is important to figure out who you can or would want to draft in later rounds.

Don't Draft Tandems

Tandem receiver and quarterback pairings are not an effective way to go. More information about this can be found here. http://www.footballguys.com/callas_qbwr.cfm I do think there are some situations where a tandem is okay. Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford. Having both of those guys on your team could lead you to some amazing points. However having a guy like a Vick and Desean Jackson could be problematic.

Do Some Research

If you are reading this article you have put in at least a little bit of work into your fantasy team. Follow the general tips above, do some reading, start to form some ideas for what you want to do with your team this year. Good luck!

10th Pick. 10 Man League. Quarterbacks? Running Backs? Draft Strategy.

I have conducted several mock drafts from the 10^th spot in a 10 team league. I draft with the notion that the league will have the following format.

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 2WR
• 1 WR/RB (Flex)
• 1 TE
• 1 K
• 1 DEF

In a flex league I believe it is key to have three solid running backs. I have written about my draft strategy in other posts on this site. I recommend reading http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/06/fantasy-football-strategy-2012-general.html to understand many of my notions and reasoning for drafting how I do. In a flex league it is useful to go with three running backs. Three starting running backs can generally put up solid numbers week by week. The hope is that they will have steady performance and not put up extremely low fantasy points numbers week by week.

The tenth spot is an interesting spot to draft from. You get the advantage of drafting two players in a row. This is useful, it is nice to double up at the end of the first round. The draw back is you have to wait a long time for your next pick. I experimented with drafting an elite quarterback with my first set of picks, or choosing to draft two runningbacks. In leagues with a flex, I believe these are the players that you need to pick early. There is plenty of receiving depth that can be found in later rounds of the draft. The best example can be found between the following players in a situation from one of my mock drafts. (All predicted fantasy points courtesy of ESPN)

1st Round Pick

Matt Forte
10^th pick of the draft I take Matt Forte (199) (The top six point producers are gone, he is tied for seventh with Trent Richardson. I also personally think he will have a great year.)

2nd Round Pick

Drew Brees

11^th pick of the draft I take Drew Brees (345) (Rodgers and Brady are gone, Brees ranks third in predicted points)

3rd Round Pick

Fred Jackson

30^th pick I draft Fred Jackson (185) I believe he will get plenty of carries in Buffalo and should have a solid year. They did fairly well when he was healthy last year.

4th Round Pick

Darren Sproles

31^st pick I draft Darren Sproles (164) He is a weapon, and has the potential to put up some decent fantasy points again.

These are the players I could draft at quarterback if I waited until round three to draft a quarterback.

Mike Vick 271

Peyton Manning 279

Both Vick and Manning are great quarterbacks, they can also be a good addition in fantasy football. However, I am happy with taking Brees in the first as my alternative. Brees put up 345 points, that is 66 more points then Manning, and 74 points more then Vick. Drew Brees brings you points that make the difference between winning and losing fantasy games.

The two best remaining halfbacks in round three are Michael Turner (182) and Ahmad Bradshaw (167). I am happy with having Fred Jackson and Sproles instead of those two, both combinations of players yield 349 points. Turner and Bradshaw combined equal to 349 points, as do Sproles and Jackson. Therefore it is clear that Brees is the difference maker in this equation, and having a strong quarterback could lead to those extra 70 points that mean the world in fantasy football. The only thing I would have done differently in this scenario is take Maurice Jones-Drew. I maybe would have several weeks ago, however with his holdout still on going I had a better feeling about Forte putting up consistent numbers. I could be wrong however, and I would not necessarily stay away from MJD, but bear mind what happened with Chris Johnson last year.

Here are four teams I drafted with point totals excluding kickers, backups, and defense.

Quarterback in First Set of Picks
Draft 1

Matt Forte 199

Drew Brees 345

Fred Jackson 185

Darren Sproles 164

Demaryius Thomas 138

Aaron Hernandez 121

Kenny Britt 134

Torrey Smith 123

Total of 1409 Fantasy Points

Draft 2

Matt Forte 199

Matthew Stafford 338

Reggie Bush 150

Wes Welker 176

Donald Brown 134

Percy Harvin 150

Tamme 107

Stevie Johnson 134

Total of 1378 Fantasy Points

No Quarterback in First Set of Picks

Draft 3

Chris Johnson 215

Matt Forte 199

Darren Sproles 164

Jordy Nelson 149

Percy Harvin 150

Peyton Manning 263

Jacob Tamme 107

Kenny Britt 134

Total of 1381 Fantasy Points

Draft 4

Maurice Jones-Drew 299

Matt Forte 199

Jordy Nelson 149

Mike Vick 271

Reggie Bush 150

Aaron Hernandez 121

Reggie Wayne 101

Titus Young 107

Total of 1327 Fantasy Points

I was able to draft good teams by taking a quarterback with my first set of picks, or taking one later on in the draft as I display in my other two teams displayed above. I never use my first two picks on receivers. It is important to use your first two picks on positions that can't be easily filled in later rounds. It is impossible to get a guy like Matt Forte in later rounds. Reggie Bush is a good third runningback, and he is only slated for 150 fantasy points. That is 49 points less than Forte. By comparison Wes Welker is slated for 176 fantasy points, while Percy Harvin is slated for 150. A 26 point difference, you can also get Harvin two rounds later. It is those point differences at various positions that should impact your draft decisions. I covered those in the article linked at the top of this page.

The important thing is to monitor what is going on in the draft you take part in. You should always be willing to adapt to what is happening on the draft board. It is important to establish a running game, which is why I ensure I take a runningback in the first, however if Calvin Johnson were available at the tenth spot I may have taken him and a runningback in the first round. Then again it is tough to say what I would do.  Would I take Calvin Johnson and an elite quarterback? Or Calvin Johnson and a star runningback? Every draft is different. Maximize the value of your picks wherever you can. I was able to land Reggie Bush in numerous mock drafts. If I have Reggie Bush as my third runningback, playing in my flex spot, I feel good about the draft. It is much easier to fill needs at wideout later in the draft then it is to fill needs at halfback.

Update:
Here is an actual team I drafted in a 10 person league with a live draft. The league also makes use of individual defensive players. http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/08/10-man-live-draft-idp-max-ppg.html

Here is my 2014 Fantasy Football Guide! I have changed elements of my strategy. The information on the link below is more up to date. It will give you insight of the 2014 draft.
http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.com/2014/08/2014-positions-value-draft-strategy.html

Upcoming Analysis

I have been conducting live mock drafts at fantasyfootballcalculator.com  I am going to take my teams from there and crunch some numbers and post my results in a few days. I have been picking out of the tenth spot. I need too pick from the tenth spot two more times to have four mock drafts and have some good information. I also plan on drafting from the middle of the draft to have some different data. I am a strong believer in needing an elite quarterback, however not as the cost of hindering your running game. Through my mock drafts I have found some interesting ideas about how to achieve the most success from the tenth spot. I will be testing the earlier spot to see if getting an upper echelon quarterback in the second round is a possibility. The trend seems to be Brees, Rodgers, and Brady going early in the first round. However I believe taking someone like Stafford or Newton in the second round can be advantageous if from an earlier position in the draft. It will all be evident in my next post.