Rashard Mendenhall has followed former Offensive Co-Ordinator Bruce Arians to the desert. Last season Mendenhall only played in six games. The two enjoyed success when Arians was in Pittsburgh. How will this signing impact Mendenhall's fantasy value? If you strike out 2008 (4 games, under 100 yards) and 2012 (only 60 total touches) you have three years of healthy Mendenhall data.
Many interesting numbers can be found regarding Rashard Mendenhall based on the 2009,2010, and 2011 seasons. When Mendenhall is healthy he averages 12.1 fantasy points a game, and 189.73 fantasy points for the year. Those are very respectable numbers. Mendenhall could be a viable number two fantasy back, or an excellent flex player if he can replicate those numbers.
The variable in this equation is the team he has arrived on. The Cardinals are my favorite NFL team, but I examine them with no bias. They had a terrible offensive year. The running game was especially poor. All of the Cardinals running backs amassed 169.75 fantasy points for the 2012 season. They averaged out to 9.98 points a game last year. That is ever single running back on the team combined. The Cardinals had a very bad year on offense, facing issues both passing and running the ball.
I believe Mendenhall will be good for 179.74 fantasy points this season. I determined this by averaging Mendenhall's healthy numbers and the Cardinals 2012 rushing statistics. 179.4 fantasy points would rank 13th for the 2012 season. This would place Mendenhall's as the best 2nd level RB in football. 179.74. Some people may find the 180 point number to be ambitious, but I can guarantee that he will hit 150 points if healthy. Would I take Mendenhall in the 2nd round of a twelve man draft? No. If I need a 2nd running back or a flex option I would snag him at value. If the Cardinals can shore up their offensive line through the draft or free agency I would consider snagging him at value. He may have a great season.
