First Round Drafting: 2013

Are you unsure of who to draft in the first round? Do you seek guidance in your Fantasy Football quest? Do you yearn to know which gridiron warrior can lead you to glory? The answers to these questions follow. I outline who I believe you should pick from each draft spot in the first round. I am using a 12 team league for this analysis. I believe most owners should take a running back in the first round. Running backs are the position that have the least amount of depth. It does not matter whether you are playing in a standard league with three wide receivers, or a league with a flex. The difference between having a Top 12 Running Back and a lower tier running back is enormous. I use this example from last year.

12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson	24th Ranked RB: Willis McGahee	Point Difference
182.9	119.2	63.7

If you compare Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson the jump from the best running back in the league to the 12th is even greater.

1st Ranked RB: Adrian Peterson	12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson	Point Difference
309.4	182.9	126.5

I attempt to draft without personal bias and to get the best draft results you should as well. The example above displays the importance of drafting an elite running back. As the draft continues on I believe it is important to draft elite players. You do not necessarily have to draft back to back running backs. All you have to do is draft the player who will out perform his peers. My draft strategy is assembled after doing some number crunching, examining previous year stats, and examining the upcoming years projections. This guide however is not a thesis on my fantasy football beliefs but a quick guide on who I believe should be taken in the first round.

1^st PICK

Adrian Peterson

Adrian Peterson is an amazing running back. Many players who had an early draft pick last year opted for another running back. His draft stock dropped last year due to his recovery from a ACL and MCL tear. A.P showed the entire football world that he was back and better then ever. He fell just nine yards shy of breaking the single season rushing record rushing with 2,097 yards. He put up an amazing 309.40 fantasy points. The next best running back was short of A.P's fantasy point production by 44.8 points. The running back position has the highest fall off from elite to average. One key element of my draft strategy is to have an elite running back. Running backs are a commodity that flies off the draft board. I believe Peterson is the best running back or player you can take in the first draft spot. He has emerged as the best running back in football. He has not let a serious injury hamper his career, lead the NFL in rushing last year, led all RBs in fantasy points, and should have another amazing year. He is aptly nicknames all day, and if you pick him first he may lead you all the way to a championship.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
269.91	279	272.4	309.4

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2^ND PICK

Doug Martin

Doug Martin had an impressive rookie campaign. He amassed 264.6 fantasy points. Arian Foster edged him by a very small margin of fantasy points. Foster beat him by .2 of a point. Martin made a huge impact last year, and is clearly the number one running back in the Tampa Bay offense. He has Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks healthy which will help the Buccaneers offensive line. Martin should be able to put up great numbers this year, and the sites I have referenced have him ranked in the Top 5 for projected running back fantasy points. While Peterson was my definite number one pick, I had more difficulty deciding who should be taken with the 2nd pick. Doug Martin and the Buccaneers have the 3rd easiest schedule for running backs, while Arian Foster and the Texans have the 4th. What puts Martin ahead of Arian Foster on my draft board is the lack of any injuries clouding his potential output for the season.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
237.08	226	247.2	264.6

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3^rd PICK

C.J. Spiller

Spiller has cemented himself as the number on back in Buffalo. Spiller managed to put up 218.3 fantasy points last year. He did this with only 250 touches. His touches should go up this year, which will result in even more fantasy points for the 4th year back. As a team, Buffalo is in weird spot. They have not enjoyed success in recent years. E.J. Manuel, Kevin Kolb, and Jeff Tuel are the three quarterbacks taking snaps for the Bills. E.J. Manuel just hurt his knee, Kolb has been a bust in years past, Tuel is an undrafted rookie. Buffalo will have to rely on Spiller in order to win games.  Expect big things from Spiller this year.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
234.85	227	237.6	218.3

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4^th PICK

Arian Foster

Arian Foster has scored over 250 fantasy points yearly, for the past three seasons. He is currently dealing with a back problem, and he will be missing all of the preseason. He claims he will be ready for the regular season. I would believe the man, and not let the injuries deter you from drafting Arian Foster. He has consistently performed over the past few seasons, and has made big impacts for the fantasy owners lucky enough to draft him. Foster get the ball constantly. In 2010 he had 393 touches, in 2011 he had 331, last year he had 391. A player getting the ball frequently gives him more opportunities to amass fantasy points. He is similar to Adrian Peterson in respect to the fact that he is one of the few elite running backs who can exceed 230 fantasy points, and has done so for the past three years.I would take Arian Foster higher but his current injury dropped him two spots. With your first pick in the draft you ideally want a player who is going into the season healthy, and who you believe will be playing all year. While Foster is not playing in the preseason, I believe he will have a great season. I would rather take a chance on Foster producing big numbers then draft any of the other running backs slotted after him on my draft board.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
255.82	261	221.9	264.8

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5^th PICK

Marshawn Lynch

Lynch had an excellent year in 2012. He had 250.6 fantasy points. I believe that this kind of performance is repeatable. Some people are projecting Lynch to not repeat these numbers, I believe he will. The Seahawks finished 3rd in Rushing Yards, and 9th in total points. Russel Wilson's success at quarterback will not hinder Lynch, it will help him. The more Seattle's offense clicks the more yards and touchdowns Lynch can gain. In 2012 the Seahawks had two games where they absolutely annihilated their opponents. In those two games Lynch still put up remarkable numbers with limited opportunities. When they beat the Cardinals 58-0, he had 11 attempts, 30.8 fantasy points. When they beat the Bills 50-17 he had 10 attempts, 18.7 fantasy points. Lynch gets his numbers in blow outs, close games, any game. I believe his success will continue. 

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
212.33	233	224.3	250.6

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6^th PICK

Ray Rice

Ray Rice is sliding in many fantasy football Mock Drafts. I believe he still has what it takes to be a Top 5 running back. Rice scored 296.8 fantasy points two years ago, 222.1 last year. Analysts are curious if the emergence of Bernard Pierce will damage Rice's output. I do not think it will be significant enough to stop me from picking him. Baltimore has lost Dennis Pita to injury, Anquan Boldin to the 49ers, and do not have the most amazing WRs in the league. Ray Rice could see more receptions this year, and I believe will exceed the 222 fantasy points he put up last year. Hey, diddle diddle, Ray Rice up the middle!

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
203.58	232	225.0	221.1

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7^th PICK

Alfred Morris

Alfred Morris had an amazing rookie year. He entered the season as a sixth round draft pick and emerged as the NFL's second leading rusher. He finished 5th in fantasy points for a running back with 246.3. His main knock would be he only had eleven receptions for 77 yards with zero touchdowns. Although he is not a receiving threat, he is an amazing running back to have on your fantasy squad. He rushed for 1606 yards. He is a vicious runner and plays in an dynamic offense with RG III. Draft him if you have the chance!

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
206.16	219	232.2	246.3

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8^th PICK

Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson is coming off a record breaking season. He hauled in 122 catches for 1,964 yards. He only scored five touchdowns and still managed to put up 226.4 fantasy points. My philosophy is to make sure I have an elite running back while drafting. Calvin Johnson is the only wide receiver who I would take in the first round. I believe taking Calvin Johnson in the 8th spot is worth doing. He will pull in numbers that warrant his drafting. Having Calvin Johnson is the safest bet you can have for production at the wide receiver position. If you draft him here you must make sure you shore up your running game in the upcoming rounds.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
211.10	236	234.5	220.4

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9^th PICK

LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy has had some huge fantasy years. In 2011 he had 1,309 rushing yards, 17 rushing touchdowns, 315 receive yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. He gained 282.4 fantasy yards. He missed games last year due to a concussion, and the Eagles had a dreadful year. The Eagles now have a new coach, and McCoy could deliver an excellent fantasy year. He managed 151.3 points in 12 games, that equates to 12.58 fantasy points a game. The Eagles will utilize McCoy under Chip Kelly and if you can draft him as late as ninth do it!

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
218.38	200	223.1	151.3

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10^th PICK

Trent Richardson

Richardson had a solid rookie campaign. He rushed for 957 yards, 11 touchdowns, and earned 203 fantasy points. He is clearly the number one running back for the Browns. He should get plenty of touches this year, he is a threat running and catching the ball. Last year he rushed 267 times, and hauled in 51 catches on 70 targets. Richardson battled injuries and saw limited touches early last year, he also missed the entire preseason. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. If the Browns can stay in games and muster any sort of offense he should exceed his numbers from last year by a large amount.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
223.03	226	213.5	203.7

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11^th PICK

Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles finished with 210.9 fantasy points last year, finishing eighth in fatasy points for running backs. Two years ago he suffered an ACL tear in week two and missed the remainder of the season. Charles was able to return strong, and although he was distant from his 241.5 fantasy points he achieved in 2010, he still had a productive year. His issue holding back his fantasy point scoring is a lack of touchdowns. He is a threat both rushing and catching the ball, and could have a very productive year. Andy Reid is the new coach in KC, and Alex Smith is the new quarterback. Both of these factors could lead in an increase in Charles' numbers.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
229.06	228	222.1	210.9

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12^th PICK

Matt Forte

Matt Forte's forte is not scoring touchdowns. However he does put up a respectable amount of fantasy points. Forte put up five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown last year. If he scored more touchdowns he could be a true fantasy beast. He 1,094 yards rushing and 340 yards receiving. Hopefully new Bears Co-Ordinator Marc Tressman utilizes Forte, and he amasses more fantasy points. Forte is a solid pick at the end of the first round. He could deliver over 200 fantasy points and at the low end should deliver 170.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
209.67	182	196.8	179.4

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Why I Love Fantasy Football

I am not a gun slinging Quarterback, I am not a shut down Corner Back, I am not a sure handed Wide Receiver,  I am not a key piece on the Offensive Line, I am not a professional football player in any way shape or form. The only football player I bear any physical comparison to is Brandon Banks (5 foot 7, 155 pounds)

I am not happy at my current job, it is under whelming, it is not stimulating, the pay is terrible. Fantasy Football provides a welcoming distraction to the day to day grind. Not every football fan has the ability to go out and play football,  most people will never obtain the money to own a football team, and not every person you know happens to be a general manager or even an employee with a professional sports team.

Fantasy Football allows you to own and manage your own team. Fantasy Football leagues are fun! You can play for free, you can play in paid leagues on the internet, or you can have a league with  prizes with your friends. Last season I was in two leagues, I managed my team The Funs to a regular season championship, and post season title! My other team won the constellation playoffs and I did not end up having to pay a league fee (a great constellation prize). 

Fantasy Football can make you a bit crazy at times. It can make you cheer for players you never thought you would. Last year I ended up cheering on Ike Taylor. A corner back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I had a small lead on my opponent and needed Tory Smith to not produce points as he had in previous weeks. It was the Monday Night Football game. I watched the Steelers and Ravens duke it out and was overjoyed when Torrey Smith did not produce enough points for my opponent to win. Ike Taylor was my main man that night, shutting down Torrey Smith.

The Fantasy Football season is tough, just like the regular NFL season.Your team will battle injuries, you will often face key personnel decisions leading up to the game. "Do I start Joe Flacco, or Tony Romo?" You will be kicking yourself when you make a wrong decision, you will be over joyed when you make the right decision leading up to a game. Last year my friend picked up Danny Woodhead when he had one of his biggest weeks of the season!

Fantasy Football lets armchair Quarterbacks around the world have fun. It lets aspiring GM's, super fans, and dreamers the chance to manage their own squad. The draft is one of the most fun parts of the season. It is where you pick your squad. You can elect to pick your favorite players or players you like. Many people do this. I have many friends who pick with personal bias. If that is how you want to play that is fine! I choose to pick players based off their stats. I study the numbers, try to crunch them, I try to spot tendencies, trends, and find value every step through the draft. That is what this blog is dedicated towards. This blog is my attempt at formulating winning fantasy football strategy. My draft strategy is not based on hoping guys will have good years, or the fact that some guys play on teams I like. My strategies are based on where there is value in drafting, where you can pick guys who have dropped in the draft, the low end and the high end, and other elements based on the numbers.

Hopefully the articles on this site can aide you in some way, and hopefully you enjoy the 2013 Fantasy Football Season! Good luck!

-Travis

Fantasy Football 2013

READ MY UPDATED 2014 GUIDE

The draft in this years Fantasy Football season is shaping up to be significantly different then last years. It is important to note the differences in order to have a successful fantasy year. I have had to analyze numbers and change elements of my draft strategy.

Quarterbacks were being drafted much earlier last year. The chart below shows the difference in what positions were drafted early in the draft, comparing this years mocks and last years drafts. We use 12 team drafts for this example. (Using ADP Data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com )

In 2011 the passing yards and Fantasy Points produced by Quarterbacks were very high. The Top 5 QB's averaged 383.68 Fantasy Points. This resulted in last year (the 2012 season) having high projections for QB's, and people drafting QB's fairly early in the draft.

Quarterbacks ended up not doing as spectacular during the 2012 season. Only averaging 344.5 points. The important thing to note is that the projections and 2011 season numbers influenced how the draft in 2012 panned out. It is very important to adjust your strategy based on the numbers and draft trends. The draft you participate in may be completely different then the tendencies listed for 2013. However it is very important to be prepared.Many people draft off of the rankings on the draft board or have little preparation leading up to the draft. Do your homework!

I believe it is important to have elite players at multiple positions. You can not afford to neglect team needs. Is your league a using flex? Or do you play 3 WR's and 2 RB's? Is it a PPR? Standard scoring? Do you use Team Defense or IDP? Look at those elements of your league and plan your draft.

My 12 team league uses a flex.

1 QB

2 RB

2 WR

1 RB/WR

1 TE

1 DEF

1 K

Knowing your league structure is important. If you have a flex you have the ability to either play three running backs, or three wide receivers. Standard leagues make you play three wide receivers and two running backs. Either way I believe it is extremely important to draft a high point producing running back.

It is obviously ideal to have great point producing players at every position. I have conducted several mock drafts. I have found that it is necessary (especially in a 12 team league) to draft a high point producing running back. You need at least one back to try to bring you elite numbers.

It is important to draft positions that do not have a surplus of talent. It is important to draft a Top 10 Running Back. The drop off from the top 10 RB's to the 11-20 RB's is enormous.  All the charts below deal in averages. I take the players fantasy points and average them out. The chart below shows the importance of having an elite running back.

The difference between the Top 5 players at a given position and the 6 to 10 ranked players at a given position are listed above.

 The difference between the Top 12 players at a given position and the 12-24 ranked players are given above. Quarterbacks were not included since you only need one starter on your team. (Unless in a 2 QB league, but this article is not discussing those) The charts above should give you a good idea as to why I believe it is essential to draft a quality running back. The difference between the top 12 running backs and the 12th to 24th ranked running backs is enormous.  There are more wide receivers that can produce similar numbers then running backs.


I believe a key to fantasy football drafting is to draft the best player available. Draft the player who excels the most compared to his peers.Last year I snagged Andre Johnson really late in a 10 man draft, it really helped my team. Draft the best players available. If Brandon Marshall is around in the 2nd round, take him. Don't take a running back who you do not have faith in just to have two running backs off the bat. Some players do produce truly exceptional numbers. One thing I have noticed in drafts is teams filling "needs". You do not need to draft a Tight End in the sixth round just to hit your requirements. If there is a great Tight End on the board take him! But if you are just drafting to "fill a hole" see if there is something else on the board.


The following is a list of players who are projected to put up exceptional numbers. These players would be a valuable additions to your team, and you should attempt to draft them if you can. (Projections based off Fftoday.com on August 11th)

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees 357
Aaron Rodgers  349.7

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson 268.4
Doug Martin 243.2
Arian Foster 241.9
C.J. Spiller 231.6
Alfred Morris 226.2
 Ray Rice 223.0
Marshawn Lynch 218.3
Jamal Charles 216.1
Lesean McCoy 215.1

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson 230.5
Dez Bryant 205.4
A.J. Green 194
Brandon Marshall 190
Demaryius Thomas 189.9
Julio Jones 187

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham 164.4
Rob Gronkowski 154

The key to my draft strategy is to draft players who have exceptional point production. Point production beyond their peers. I have listed elements of this years draft such as the need to get a running back.  Drafting a good quarterback is important but not as important as drafting a talented running back. You need at least two running backs, and two wide receivers. (1 RB/WR more in a flex, or 1 more WR in "standard" leagues) 

Here is a telling comparison from last years season.

12th Ranked RB

Chris Johnson 182.9 

24th  Ranked RB 

Willis McGahee 119.2

Point Difference 

63.7

12th Ranked WR 

Wes Welker 173.4

24th Ranked WR 

Mike Wallace 132.5

Point Difference 

40.9

Much more depth is found at wide receiver. The drop off from the high level RB's to 2nd Tier and 3rd Tier is enormous. More receivers can provide a similar amount of points. Quarterbacks have an interesting distribution of points as well. The projections state that Brees and Rodgers will have exceptional performances, but believe that Manning, Newton, Stafford, Capernick, and Romo will all be within 20 points of each other.

Good luck to everyone drafting! If you have read this and have any questions feel free to leave a comment. I have posted more links below that could aide you in your draft!