What is a bust? One definition from the dictionary is that a
bust is “to ruin financially”. The first two rounds of a fantasy football draft
can either make or break your season. These rounds are where you must pick
players who are projected to have great seasons. Last year saw a crazy amount
of busts at the running back position.
My definition of a bust may differ from others. I view the
Top 12 RB’s picked from last year’s season and see which of these running backs
finished in the Top 12 for points. It can be argued that a RB picked with the
first five picks of the draft should have higher expectations but for my
purposes I’m examining how many within the Top 12 for ADP finish in the Top 12
for Fantasy Points.
|
Name
|
Pick
|
Final Rank
|
Points
|
Difference
|
Result
|
|
Adrian Peterson
|
1.02
|
2
|
230.7
|
71.3
|
+
|
|
LeVeon Bell
|
1.03
|
47
|
87.2
|
-72.2
|
-
|
|
Eddie Lacy
|
1.03
|
25
|
120.6
|
-38.8
|
-
|
|
Jamaal Charles
|
1.04
|
49
|
84.1
|
-75.3
|
-
|
|
Marshawn Lynch
|
1.05
|
56
|
67.7
|
-91.7
|
-
|
|
CJ Anderson
|
1.08
|
30
|
116.3
|
-43.1
|
-
|
|
Jeremy Hill
|
1.09
|
14
|
153.3
|
-6.1
|
-
|
|
DeMarco Murray
|
2.01
|
18
|
140.1
|
-19.3
|
-
|
|
Matt Forte
|
2.03
|
9
|
170.7
|
11.3
|
+
|
|
LeSean McCoy
|
2.07
|
17
|
144.7
|
-14.7
|
-
|
|
Justin Forsett
|
2.09
|
43
|
91.4
|
-68
|
-
|
|
Lamar Miller
|
2.09
|
6
|
184.9
|
25.5
|
+
|
The benchmark for my study was 159.4 fantasy points, the
points for the 12th RB at the end of the year. Last year was a very
bad year for running backs. Adrian Peterson was the only RB drafted in the
first round who truly delivered. Matt Forte and Lamar Miler were backs drafted
in the second round who delivered solid fantasy points.
The elite running backs from the 2015 season could not get
healthy and thrive. LeVeon Bell and
Jamaal Charles tore their ACL’s. Eddie Lacy had an ankle injury and could never
really seem to get things going. Marshawn Lynch was injured and limited before
retiring at the end of the season. Demarco Murray suffered from... well from
playing for Chip Kelly’s Eagles. Various factors held back running backs in
2015.
This has lead many fantasy owners I have spoken with to have
a new WR heavy approach to drafting. I wanted to figure out if last year was an
anomaly or if RB’s bust that hard every year.
|
Year
|
Success
|
Bust
|
|
|
3
|
9
|
|
|
2014
|
8
|
4
|
|
|
2013
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
2012
|
7
|
5
|
|
|
2011
|
6
|
6
|
By my measurements last year was an exceptionally bad year
for RB’s. I believe this year will be more predictable than last year. I plan
to measure the other positions used in fantasy football and publish my findings
as soon as possible.