Quarterbacks were being drafted much earlier last year. The chart below shows the difference in what positions were drafted early in the draft, comparing this years mocks and last years drafts. We use 12 team drafts for this example. (Using ADP Data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com )
In 2011 the passing yards and Fantasy Points produced by Quarterbacks were very high. The Top 5 QB's averaged 383.68 Fantasy Points. This resulted in last year (the 2012 season) having high projections for QB's, and people drafting QB's fairly early in the draft.
Quarterbacks ended up not doing as spectacular during the 2012 season. Only averaging 344.5 points. The important thing to note is that the projections and 2011 season numbers influenced how the draft in 2012 panned out. It is very important to adjust your strategy based on the numbers and draft trends. The draft you participate in may be completely different then the tendencies listed for 2013. However it is very important to be prepared.Many people draft off of the rankings on the draft board or have little preparation leading up to the draft. Do your homework!
Quarterbacks ended up not doing as spectacular during the 2012 season. Only averaging 344.5 points. The important thing to note is that the projections and 2011 season numbers influenced how the draft in 2012 panned out. It is very important to adjust your strategy based on the numbers and draft trends. The draft you participate in may be completely different then the tendencies listed for 2013. However it is very important to be prepared.Many people draft off of the rankings on the draft board or have little preparation leading up to the draft. Do your homework!
I believe it is important to have elite players at multiple positions. You can not afford to neglect team needs. Is your league a using flex? Or do you play 3 WR's and 2 RB's? Is it a PPR? Standard scoring? Do you use Team Defense or IDP? Look at those elements of your league and plan your draft.
My 12 team league uses a flex.
1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 RB/WR
1 TE
1 DEF
1 K
Knowing your league structure is important. If you have a flex you have the ability to either play three running backs, or three wide receivers. Standard leagues make you play three wide receivers and two running backs. Either way I believe it is extremely important to draft a high point producing running back.
It is obviously ideal to have great point producing players at every position. I have conducted several mock drafts. I have found that it is necessary (especially in a 12 team league) to draft a high point producing running back. You need at least one back to try to bring you elite numbers.
It is obviously ideal to have great point producing players at every position. I have conducted several mock drafts. I have found that it is necessary (especially in a 12 team league) to draft a high point producing running back. You need at least one back to try to bring you elite numbers.
It is important to draft positions that do not have a surplus of talent. It is important to draft a Top 10 Running Back. The drop off from the top 10 RB's to the 11-20 RB's is enormous. All the charts below deal in averages. I take the players fantasy points and average them out. The chart below shows the importance of having an elite running back.
The difference between the Top 5 players at a given position and the 6 to 10 ranked players at a given position are listed above.
The difference between the Top 12 players at a given position and the 12-24 ranked players are given above. Quarterbacks were not included since you only need one starter on your team. (Unless in a 2 QB league, but this article is not discussing those) The charts above should give you a good idea as to why I believe it is essential to draft a quality running back. The difference between the top 12 running backs and the 12th to 24th ranked running backs is enormous. There are more wide receivers that can produce similar numbers then running backs.
I believe a key to fantasy football drafting is to draft the best player available. Draft the player who excels the most compared to his peers.Last year I snagged Andre Johnson really late in a 10 man draft, it really helped my team. Draft the best players available. If Brandon Marshall is around in the 2nd round, take him. Don't take a running back who you do not have faith in just to have two running backs off the bat. Some players do produce truly exceptional numbers. One thing I have noticed in drafts is teams filling "needs". You do not need to draft a Tight End in the sixth round just to hit your requirements. If there is a great Tight End on the board take him! But if you are just drafting to "fill a hole" see if there is something else on the board.
The following is a list of players who are projected to put up exceptional numbers. These players would be a valuable additions to your team, and you should attempt to draft them if you can. (Projections based off Fftoday.com on August 11th)
Aaron Rodgers 349.7
Doug Martin 243.2
Arian Foster 241.9
C.J. Spiller 231.6
Alfred Morris 226.2
Ray Rice 223.0
Marshawn Lynch 218.3
Jamal Charles 216.1
Lesean McCoy 215.1
Dez Bryant 205.4
A.J. Green 194
Brandon Marshall 190
Demaryius Thomas 189.9
Julio Jones 187
I believe a key to fantasy football drafting is to draft the best player available. Draft the player who excels the most compared to his peers.Last year I snagged Andre Johnson really late in a 10 man draft, it really helped my team. Draft the best players available. If Brandon Marshall is around in the 2nd round, take him. Don't take a running back who you do not have faith in just to have two running backs off the bat. Some players do produce truly exceptional numbers. One thing I have noticed in drafts is teams filling "needs". You do not need to draft a Tight End in the sixth round just to hit your requirements. If there is a great Tight End on the board take him! But if you are just drafting to "fill a hole" see if there is something else on the board.
The following is a list of players who are projected to put up exceptional numbers. These players would be a valuable additions to your team, and you should attempt to draft them if you can. (Projections based off Fftoday.com on August 11th)
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees 357Aaron Rodgers 349.7
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson 268.4Doug Martin 243.2
Arian Foster 241.9
C.J. Spiller 231.6
Alfred Morris 226.2
Ray Rice 223.0
Marshawn Lynch 218.3
Jamal Charles 216.1
Lesean McCoy 215.1
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson 230.5Dez Bryant 205.4
A.J. Green 194
Brandon Marshall 190
Demaryius Thomas 189.9
Julio Jones 187
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham 164.4Rob Gronkowski 154
The key to my draft strategy is to draft players who have exceptional point production. Point production beyond their peers. I have listed elements of this years draft such as the need to get a running back. Drafting a good quarterback is important but not as important as drafting a talented running back. You need at least two running backs, and two wide receivers. (1 RB/WR more in a flex, or 1 more WR in "standard" leagues)
Here is a telling comparison from last years season.
12th Ranked RB
Chris Johnson 182.9
24th Ranked RB
Willis McGahee 119.2
Point Difference
63.7
12th Ranked WR
Wes Welker 173.4
24th Ranked WR
Mike Wallace 132.5
Point Difference
40.9
Much more depth is found at wide receiver. The drop off from the high level RB's to 2nd Tier and 3rd Tier is enormous. More receivers can provide a similar amount of points. Quarterbacks have an interesting distribution of points as well. The projections state that Brees and Rodgers will have exceptional performances, but believe that Manning, Newton, Stafford, Capernick, and Romo will all be within 20 points of each other.
Good luck to everyone drafting! If you have read this and have any questions feel free to leave a comment. I have posted more links below that could aide you in your draft!
2 comments:
Nice read. Fairly consistent with other analysts. Glad to see you doing it since you're not paid. A man who does it and isn't paid is a passionate man.
Thank you very much! I just try to crunch some numbers and gain knowledge that will aide in winning my league. :)
Post a Comment