Thursday, August 07, 2014

2014 Drafting from the 12th Spot

I have been conducting research on drafting from the 12th spot in a 12 team draft. This includes analyzing stats, as well as conducting mock drafts. I have tried a few different draft strategies and drawn many conclusions. This article should be able to give you advice and a chance to draft a championship team from the 12th spot.

The league I am drafting for features QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR, TE, DEF, and K.

I have conducted many mock drafts in order to prepare for my actual fantasy drafts. I have seen a wide assortment of players get drafted in the eleven picks before mine (the 12th).  I would personally recommend drafting an elite WR and elite running back with your first two picks. The best part about picking 12th is you get two solid players at the end of the first round. This has typically lead me to drafting Dez Bryant and Arian Foster. The following list average draft position data, and shows where players have recently been getting drafted. This can give you an idea of who is available when you pick.



Rank Pick Name Pos Team
1 1.02 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
2 1.02 Jamaal Charles RB KC
3 1.04 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
4 1.04 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 1.05 Calvin Johnson WR DET
6 1.06 Eddie Lacy RB GB
7 1.08 Jimmy Graham TE NO
8 1.09 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
9 1.09 Peyton Manning QB DEN
10 1.1 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
11 1.1 Montee Ball RB DEN
12 1.11 Dez Bryant WR DAL
13 2.02 Arian Foster RB HOU
14 2.02 A.J. Green WR CIN
15 2.03 DeMarco Murray RB DAL
16 2.05 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
17 2.05 Julio Jones WR ATL
18 2.05 Brandon Marshall WR CHI
19 2.07 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
20 2.08 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
21 2.08 Drew Brees QB NO
Data accurate as of August 3rd,2014

I believe it is important to snag a running back as well as an elite wide receiver. I could take two running backs or two wide receivers. The reason I choose not to do this is that by doing so I would be losing out on point production at the position I do not choose.
Taking Dez Bryant is a good move. He is in a class of recieiver that provides your team a serious advantage. He resides in what I deem as the top tier of wide receiver. He is ranked fourth on the current Fantasy Pro projections for the year. I believe he has the ability to exceed the projections and possibly be the best wide receiver in the league. The value chart I made has Dez Bryant producing 64.8 points more then the 29th receiver being taken. This link can give you an explanation on Value Based Drafting.  He is a valuable draft pick. Technically Julio Jones is more valuable then Dez Bryant based off Fantasy Pros projections, but I go with Dez because I truly believe he will score more points.


Player FPTS
Calvin Johnson (DET)  228.5
Demaryius Thomas (DEN)  219.4
Julio Jones (ATL)  202.4
Dez Bryant (DAL)  198.2
A.J. Green (CIN)  194.5
Brandon Marshall (CHI)  190.6
Jordy Nelson (GB)  185.1
Alshon Jeffery (CHI)  184.8
Antonio Brown (PIT)  184.7
Randall Cobb (GB)  171.9

Picking Arian Foster (or the best running back available) is an extremely important move to make for your second pick. The alternative to drafting a running back would be drafting a second wide receiver. It is important to snag a quality WR, but grabbing two could be a very ill advised move. This would lead you to rely on lower point producing running backs to anchor your running game. The chart below show the difference in projected points if you were to draft two a WR/RB in the first vs WR/WR in the first.


Player Points
Player Points
Dez Bryant 198.2
Dez Bryant 198.2
Arian Foster 207.6
AJ Green 194.5
Vincent Jackson 166.5
Bishop Sankey 174.5
Bishop Sankey 174.5
Ryan Mathews 168.3
Total 746.8
Total 735.5


It is truly beneficial to draft a top wide receiver and running back with your first two picks. When the time comes for your next set of picks I advise taking a wide receiver and running back once more. My personal suggestion is to take Wes Welker at wide receiver if he is still available. His Average Draft Position has not been very high, although he has been quite a formidable fantasy receiver for many years. You can draft several other talented receivers such as Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin, and Victor Cruz. Take whichever receiver you believe will have the best year. Next I would draft the best running back available. In my recent mock drafts that can be anyone from Andre Ellington, Bishop Sankey, Ryan Mathews, Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, or Toby Gerhart. Evaluate who you think has the best chance of success this year and draft that player.

My next two picks I choose to take the best receiver available and possibly a QB or Tight End. Bear in mind you should always draft the best player possible. So if the draft you participate in somehow has a very good running back still around at this point draft him. I have been able to draft TY Hilton, Julian Edelman, and even Percy Harvin in the fifth round. If Vernon Davis is still around at this point I am tempted to take him. If Nick Foles is available I take him. Michael Floyd is another receiver I take if still available.There is QB depth in this draft. The core of this article and my advice from the 12th spot is to go WR/RB in the first.

This article provides a basic frame work for drafting from the 12th spot. I personally suggest taking a strong elite WR, as well as a top ten running back in the first round. The following rounds can see you pick your QB whenever you feel is right, however I personally believe it is best to grab another good RB and WR with your second set of picks. Remember to always attempt to draft the best and most valuable player possible, capitalize on the players who slide down to you. The 12th spot is not a bad spot to pick from, it can actually be very advantageous! Good luck!

Sunday, July 13, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Draft Part I



How are you going to win your fantasy football pool this year? That is certainly a good question. No guarantees exist in fantasy football. One of the things you can do is try and have the best draft possible. I have won two championships in a row in an IDP standard league. What was the key to my success?  Who I drafted and when I drafted them. The most important element of the draft is drafting players when they slide down in draft position. I believe in drafting players who offer more value than their peers.
To find my approach to the 2014 fantasy football draft I first analyze last year’s numbers. It is important to analyze the numbers to understand how to group players, and to see the distribution of points at the various positions.  
The easiest way to display this principle is by examining the top 12 quarterbacks. I base my calculations off groupings of twelve due to being in a twelve team league.  I also do calculations based off the top 6 at a position. It is also a good idea to group players into tiers, but we will get to that later. The average of the top twelve quarterbacks from last year came to 366, the top six came to 399. By those calculations Stafford, Dalton, Brees and Manning were the truly exceptional quarterbacks. Peyton Manning was the most valuable fantasy football player last season.  He exceeded the average of the top 12 quarterbacks by 131 points.  Peyton Manning provided production that far exceeded his peers.
Player
FFPts
Peyton Manning
496.8
Drew Brees
437.5
Andy Dalton
377.1
Matthew Stafford
367.8
Cam Newton
359.7
Philip Rivers
359.1
Andrew Luck
345.2
Ben Roethlisberger
341
Matt Ryan
335.3
Russell Wilson
331.8
 Ryan Tannehill
321.5
Colin Kaepernick
320

Here is a list of players who greatly exceeded their positional top 12 average.
Name
Points
Peyton Manning
130.73
 Jimmy Graham
86.24167
Jamaal Charles
84.48333
Drew Brees
71.43
LeSean McCoy
53.08333
Matt Forte
37.68333
Vernon Davis
31.74167
Josh Gordon
26.275
Demaryius Thomas
25.875
Calvin Johnson
19.775
Julius Thomas
19.54167
Marshawn Lynch
13.68333
Andy Dalton
11.033

Although Peyton Manning was the best fantasy player of 2013, I am still trying to decide where I will draft him in 2014. The reason being the amount of quarterbacks I start in my league. I can only start one running back a week, while I have to start two running backs, and three receivers.   Over the next few days I will be participating in mock drafts to attempt to find out the best draft strategy from the 12th spot. The 12th spot is where I will be drafting in one of my leagues, so it will be beneficial research for me and hopefully for you readers!  I will also have general draft tips, and lot of information pertaining to the 2014 fantasy football draft.