NFL Draft Thoughts

Luck and Griffin III went as the first and second pick. I am extremely happy that the Arizona Cardinals took Michael Floyd. After hearing that Fitzgerald wanted him on the team I was disappointed when I saw an offensive tackle as their first pick in most mock drafts. The Cardinals definitely could have used a tackle, however I feel a strong wide receiver like Floyd brings many things to the table offensively. Anything that allows Fitzgerald to have more space is a good thing. Any little bit of coverage not used on Larry is a benefit. Every year Boldin was with the Arizona Cardinals, and played more then 12 games, both receivers broke the 1000 yard mark. Any wide receiver benefits from having other talented wide receivers around him. Aside from the Cards taking a great receiver; the other thing that interested me greatly was the amount of trades during the draft. Not just the quantity which saw over 5 trades, but some of the actual content of the trades.

The first trade saw the Vikings trade the 3rd pick of the drafts for the Browns' first (4th pick), fourth(118), fifth(139), and seventh round picks(211) . The Browns took running back Trent Richardson, the Vikings took offensive tackle Matt Kalil. I hope Richardson works out for the Browns. It shocks me that their general manager would give up so many draft picks. A fourth, fifth, and seventh round pick to move up one pick. What were they thinking? The Viking must have been laughing. How fortunate for Minnesota. They received four picks so the Browns could move up one spot in the draft. For Cleveland's sake I hope that Richardson delivers. They need to exceed 4-12 this year to satisfy the masses.
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NFL Draft

The draft is in three days. It is pretty much guaranteed that Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are going to go as the first and second pick. Many fans are excited about who could potentially be on their team in the upcoming year. The interesting thing many people don't think about is what can happen after the first round. Numerous talented players were either drafted late or came onto teams undrafted. Arian Foster is arguably the best running back in the NFL, he was undrafted.  Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, and John Randle also all went undrafted. Tom Brady is arguably the best quarterback in the last 10 years, he was the 199th pick of the draft, taken in the six round. The first round will be interesting. The draft will have studs, duds, and undrafted stars who don't get drafted. No one truly knows what will happen. Who will be the next Pro Bowler from the first round? Who will be the next undrafted Pro Bowler? I can't wait to see. 2012-2013 will be an extremely interesting year.

Who is the best running back in the NFL?

Who is the best running back in the NFL?

I looked at statistics from 2011 to try and determine who was/is the best running back in the NFL. I first took the 32 running backs I defined as starting running backs. These running backs are the backs who had the majority of their teams rushing action. Some were leaders in split running back systems while others received the majority of carries due to injuries (Bush in Oakland).  Other running backs were extremely valuable in teams passing attacks (Sproles in New Orleans). I believe the best way to evaluate running backs is to look at total yardage. By examining rushing yardage and receiving yardage you can truly see how far a running back progressed his team up the field. I find that this is a truly valuable number. You want a running back to be able to give your team an optimal chance of gaining yardage on offense.

 Initial 32

I took all the running backs who I defined as starting running backs for the 2011 year. The average amount of carries for these running backs was 246. For the next process of my evaluation I cut out running backs who did not have 246 total touches.  Any running back who did not have 246 carries did not match the average number of carries among his 32 starting running back peers. The chart is displayed below. Anyone who did not meet 246 total touches did not provide a large enough sample of data to move on to the next step of my evaluation. The players who were cut were  Adrian Peterson, Fred Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Roy Helu, LeGarette Blount, DeMarco Murray, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Peyton Hillis,  Darren Sproles, DeAngelo Williams, James Starks, Jackie Battle, Donald Brown, and Jahvid Best.

Remaining 18

After narrowing the field down to 18 running backs I saw the new average amount of touches was 298.  Some great running backs did not make my final cut. Ryan Matthews had a very impressive year and so did Matt Forte. However my analysis is based on who was the true workhorse back for their team/ who with adjusted stats would have the best contribution for their team. Eliminating those under 298 touches helped me examine backs who had an exceptional rushing load. The backs with more touches have more data that can make the Total Yards Adjusted calculation more legitimate. If a running back only had 50 touches and great yardage, is his information as accurate as a back who had 102 touches? It is clear that the more touches through receptions and carries provides more accurate data to analyze. Matt Forte only played 12 games last year. He was just shy of reaching 1000 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving. Those are extremely impressive numbers. However he did not handle the ball enough to truly be considered a workhorse back, or a top five running back. He did not have as many carries as his peers. Therefore he was not the best running back of 2011.  The backs I cut out at this stage were Willis McGahee, Ryan Matthews, Reggie Bush, Cedric Benson, Shonn Greene, Beanie Wells, Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Rashard Mendenhall.  Several of these backs had great years, however they did not have enough touches to contribute to their teams offense as much as the other remaining running backs.

Final 9

After narrowing the backs down even further the next backs to be eliminated were Frank Gore,

Marshawn Lynch, Stephen Jackson, and Chris Johnson. All of the backs had over 1000 rushing yards for the season and contributed over 1300 total yards, with Jackson, Lynch and Johnson putting up over 1400 yards.  To be fair to all the backs, I attempted to see what they would produce with the average amount of rushes and receptions among the remaining players.  At this point I cut players who did not total up to 1600 adjusted total yards. Even with adjusting the yards with attempts the Gore, Lynch, Jackson, and Johnson did not have quite the impressive seasons as some other running backs did. At this point in time it was fair to cut by adjusted yardage due to these players all have over 250 rushing attempts, and over 290 total touches.

Final 5

 The final running backs to make it past the cuts were Maurice Jones Drew, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, LeSean McCoy and Arian Foster. The average amount of touches amongst these backs equaled to 297 rushing attempts and 47 receptions. This all totals out to 344 total attempts. I then took these numbers and multiplied in the average for receiving and rushing with the attempt numbers. All of these backs had over 250 runs and Turner is the only back who had under 40 receptions.  The below displays the actual total yards and my yards adjusted stat which takes averages and puts them against the average number of runs and receptions to attempt to measure everyone's production on the same level.
 The average salary of these five players is 8116875 if you take out McCoy's ludicrous contract of under 1 million dollars.  The averages among these five indicate that to be a top five running back you should be producing around 297 attempts, over 1350 rushing yards, 47 receptions, over 400 receiving yards, and producing around 1800 total yards. The numbers above are based off the production of the five backs averaged out. Each back had enough of a sample size to take their rushing and receiving averages and put it towards the projected yards stat.
 

 Total Yards is the left column, while the right column is Adjusted Total Yards.

Yards adjusted is rushing average times 297 and receiving average times 47. The following displays the rankings of the Top Five NFL Running Backs based on my Adjusted Total Yards Stat.

5-LeSean McCoy

McCoy produced 1624 total yards. His adjusted yardage was 1733.  His low receiving average impacted his number when it came to the adjusted stat. He fell victim to having an incredibly low receiving average compared to the others backs which negatively impacted his numbers.   He had a great year. He collected many touchdowns. However this was about determining who can aide their team in gaining as much yardage as possible. Although he totals out to 5th on this list, 1624 total yards is a great year, and so is the adjusted stat of 1733. Lesean McCoy is definitely a top five running back in the NFL.

4- Michael Turner

Turner produced 1508 total yards. His adjusted yardage was 1786. He did not produce nearly as many receiving yards as the other backs. 17 receptions for 168 yards. His inflated receiving most likely lead to him being 4th in terms of total yards adjusted and ahead of McCoy. Turner is a dependable back and would be an asset to any teams rushing attack. The guy has legs like tree trunks, pure power.

3- Maurice Jones-Drew

MJD produced 1980 yards, but his adjusted yardage was 1800. He had 46 more rushes then the 297 used for the stat, which is why his production dropped when it came to the adjusted yards stat. MJD is clearly an incredible running back. He can handle a large workload, and was one of the shining points on a fairly poor Jacksonville Jaguars team. He had a 4.7 yard rushing average which is quite impressive. Any team in the NFL would be fortunate to have MJD on their team.

2-Ray Rice

Ray Rice produced the most yards in the NFL with 2068.  When you adjust his total touches from 367 to 344 his production drops to 1827.  Rice was 2nd in Adjusted Total Yards. He had an incredible year last year. He can clearly handle alot of touches, and still puts up good numbers even when handling the ball many times. I personally found the Baltimore Ravens let some games slip away from them because they under utilized Ray Rice. They need to utilize Rice as frequently as possible. He is clearly the largest offensive weapon on the team, and by my calculations a top five, if not top two running back in the league.

1-Arian Foster

His adjusted yards totaled out to 1855. His total yards during the actual season were 1841. Foster can carry a large work load as a running back. He averaged almost 12 yards a reception and had a solid 4.4 yard average on rushing attempts. He also put up his stellar season number of 1841 total yards while missing three games! His adjusted yardage is very close to his actual yardage.Arian Foster is the definition of a workhorse running back. Any team would be fortunate to have Arian Foster. He is a threat both receiving and rushing, he can get your team up the field. He also put up over 100 yards rushing in both of the Texans playoff games last year.

Conclusion

My Adjusted Total Yards Stat has Arian Foster being the best running back in the NFL.  These running backs essentially define what you are looking for in a top five  NFL running back. They can aide your team in not only rushing carries, but with receptions. All of these backs maintained decent rushing and receiving averages. They all broke 1500 total yards, and with the adjusted stat they all broke 1700 yards.  Any of these five running backs would be an asset to have on your team. Any running back making over seven million dollars should also be able to put numbers in the range of what these five did for their real total yards and adjusted total yards.The final four backs to be cut were before the top five were Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, and Steven Jackson. These backs are incredible running backs as well. They provide you with a top ten rushing performance. However what really differentiated them from the top five backs I came to with my Yards Adjusted calculation was workload. The fact that the top five had over 250 rushing attempts and 290 total touches show they not only can deal with a large workload, but their averages are based on large amounts of data.

Tebow to Jets/Manning to Broncos

With Peyton Manning signing to the Denver Broncos, the Broncos have sent Tim Tebow to the New York Jets. Elway must have really made an impression on Peyton. The Broncos did make the playoffs last  year, but so did the 49ers. The Titans and 49ers were allegedly the other front runners for Manning. It is kind of puzzling that he did not go to the 13-3 Niners, or even the 9-7 Titans. Manning is especially loved in Tennessee! He played college ball at the University of Tennessee. Whatever the reasoning, it should be interesting to see how he fares in Denver. Tebow going to the Jets is very surprising. They do have Tony Sparano who loves the Wildcat offense and will most likely utilize Tebow. However, it is weird due to the recent contract extension of Mark Sanchez. It should be a very interesting season!

Where would Peyton Manning be most beneficial?

The main suitors of Peyton Manning are currently Arizona, Denver, Tennessee and Miami. I have recently read the book Mathletics by Wayne Winston. I highly recommend it as it has a been great read thus far. Using the information he provided on predicting winning percentage, I tried to use the information to see what an average year of Peyton Manning's performance could offer to all 32 NFL teams. This was done by substituting Peyton Manning's average passing production for that of the teams passing attack for the year. This was done projecting Manning to throw 31 touchdowns, or accumulating 186 points. Extra points were also changed to reflect the new passing totals. Examining the information (all from last season) I came to several conclusions. By my calculations Manning would have improved any team he played on except for the Packers, Lions, Patriots, Cowboys and Saints. This is due to the exceptional numbers put up by those respective teams passing attacks. 

1- Horrible Passing Teams could use Manning

The Rams, Chief, Colts, and Browns all had under 20 passing touchdowns. Manning helped raise these teams predicted winning percentage by the highest amount.  Manning increased the Rams chances of winning by 21%, the Browns by 19%, Colts 16%, and the Chiefs by 16%.  Manning playing would result in severe increases to these teams predicted winning percentage. This is due to the anemic passing offenses the mentioned teams displayed.

The chart above shows how many additional wins Peyton Manning could have contributed to the previously mentioned teams.  However even with the addition of Manning and his amazing contribution to the passing offense, these teams would be better then before, but still not superb.  In fact the Browns would likely finish 8-8, with the Chiefs finishing 7-9 or 8-8, while the Rams and Colt's would both end up at 6-10. Although Manning would be a great asset to these teams, the Chiefs and Browns would benefit from him more then Rams or Colts. The Rams and Colts both gave up over 400 points of offense to opponents. The Rams giving up 407 points,  and the Colts 430 points. While the Chiefs gave up 338 points , and the Browns 337 points. The Browns and Chiefs have better defense, and therefore could win more games by not solely having to rely on Peyton Manning and the offense putting up huge amounts of points to win games.

2-The teams in the hunt for Manning are contenders

There are many similarities when examining the teams that have been in the hunt for Peyton Manning.  The teams who have been the most legitimate in interest and possibly being able to sign him have been the Cardinals, Dolphins, Titans, and Broncos. Examining last years actual win totals, the Cardinals, Titans, Broncos, and Dolphins all have similar records,  Cardinals and Broncos at 8-8, Dolphins at 6-10, and the Titans at 9-7. None of these teams are the worst in the league, but none are exceptionally dominant.  The teams had different levels of defense with the Cardinals giving up 348 points, Broncos 390 points, Titans 317 points, and Dolphins 314 points. Clearly the teams can play defense better then the Rams and Colts.  Below is the impact Peyton Manning could have on these teams through predicted winning percentage.

 

All of the teams were within 1% of each other when it came to how much Manning could improve their winning percentage. Each team would receive around a 10 percent increase in winning percentage with the inclusion of Peyton Manning.  Every team except the Bronco's would be .500% in predicted winning for the year based on the addition of Manning. Every team obviously received an increase in points scored from the inclusion of Manning. Is it wrong to visualize Manning completing passes to Larry Fitzgerald having a significant impact on the Cardinals likelihood to win?  Would the Bronco's make a bigger impact in their division with Manning then Tebow? How would Manning utilize Reggie Bush? Would Ken Britt and Manning be a dynamic combination?

3- The addition of Peyton Manning results in possible playoff berths

Manning offers the teams in contention a chance at achieving wins they otherwise would not have achieved.  Below is a chart illustrating how many extra games Manning would allow the teams seriously in contention for him to win.

 Manning would allow each of these teams at least 1 extra win on the year.

It is very possible he could lead any of the teams to 2 wins. In my data I found that Manning would bring the most wins to other teams. This data is display below.

 Manning would bring the most wins to the Steelers, Browns, Chiefs and Rams. Manning would bring at least three extra wins to these teams. However, none of these teams are in the hunt for him. The Steelers are the only team on the list who has a predicted winning percentage high enough to likely make the playoffs, while the other teams even with the additional wins from Manning would still be struggling teams. The Steelers would in theory go up from a .540% predicted winning percentage without Manning to a .780 percentage with him. While none of the other teams would break the .500% mark. 

The charts above show the difference in wins Manning could bring to a team. While the amount of wins gained for the teams contending for him  is smaller there are also in some ways worth more. 

With the addition of Manning to the offense, the Cardinals would have a 9-7 record, the Broncos would go 8-8, Titans would go 10-6, and the Dolphins would go 10-6. Peyton Manning increases these teams winning percentages by a small amount. He would raise there percentage by around .10 points, and adds around 2 predicted wins for the year. However football is an extremely short season. Only sixteen regular seasons games. The games he could help these teams wins are the difference between making the playoffs and not playing football come January.As summarized above, the teams after Manning are teams trying to contend. The Dolphins, Broncos, Cardinals and Dolphins all have some seriously good pieces to their respective football teams. However, they believe that having Peyton Manning could be a solution to a quarterbacking issue, I like to believe their right. As a Cards fan I hope he ends up in the desert and saves us like Warner did, however I really just hope he can play and be healthy wherever he goes.