General Fantasy Football Tips

I have decided to provide some tips that I feel can assist anyone in any fantasy football league. These tips are essential to success regardless of the format of your league.

Understand The Scoring System/Mandatory Positions

It is important to know your leagues scoring system. Does your league give points per receptions? Do you use individual defensive players? Both of these things are example of elements that can change the value of the players being drafted, and how many fantasy points they will score.

Don't Play With Personal Bias

I am a huge Arizona Cardinals fan. I have loved them since I was about six years old. Fortunately I don't play with personal bias. Therefore I will not take Larry Fitzgerald in the second round when it makes more sense for me to draft someone at another position. Is he my favorite player? Yes. Will I go out of the way to draft him? No.  Attempting to fill your fantasy team with your favorite players might be fun, but it will not allow you to win. I can think of someone in my league who is going to draft without really examining the stats and going off his own personal biases and opinions with little research. I would bet on him not winning the league.

Don't Over Think Bye Weeks

Try to draft a good team. Don't worry about when your bye weeks occur. The following article explains why.
http://www.ultimateffstrategy.com/Strategy/bye_weeks.htm
If you read the article you will see that the impact bye weeks has on your overall season record is negligible.  The site tested:

•  All starters are off on the same week.

• All starters are off on different weeks.

•   No starters from the same position are off on the same week; top QB, RB, WR and TE are off on the same week.

• No more than two starters are off at the same time and none at the same position.

•   Four starters are off one week and three are off on another week.

Every single combination finished within 0.02 points of eight wins. Just draft players who will succeed, forget about the bye week.

Draft A Runningback In The First Two Rounds

Runningbacks are a commodity that quickly vanish from fantasy drafts. It is extremely important to not have a hole at runningback. Whether you are in a flex league or a strict three wide receiver league you can not completely ignore the running game. http://www.mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/06/fantasy-football-strategy-2012-general.html This article I have written explains the various advantages to drafting the different positions and which to emphasize. To summarize there are not many elite halfbacks, so try to get one.

Be Flexible/Pay Attention To The Draft Board

It is good to go into a draft with a plan of action. However it is important to have the ability to adapt and change your course of action during the draft. If you plan on getting a wideout in a certain round but see that all the Runningbacks are being taken it might be time to draft a runningback.

Do A Mock Draft

 Mock Drafts are a great practice run through of the actual draft. I have done plenty of them this year. They have really given me an excellent idea of when players typically get drafted and some of the trends that happen during drafts.

Try To Find Players Who Can Fulfill Your Needs In Later Rounds

I constantly see people drafting wide receivers to early in the draft. Examine mock drafts or at least do some planning as to where you can fufill your needs. An example of a player I have examined who can help my team from a later draft place is Donald Brown. I also believe Reggie Wayne is a decent late draft wide receiver. It is important to figure out who you can or would want to draft in later rounds.

Don't Draft Tandems

Tandem receiver and quarterback pairings are not an effective way to go. More information about this can be found here. http://www.footballguys.com/callas_qbwr.cfm I do think there are some situations where a tandem is okay. Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford. Having both of those guys on your team could lead you to some amazing points. However having a guy like a Vick and Desean Jackson could be problematic.

Do Some Research

If you are reading this article you have put in at least a little bit of work into your fantasy team. Follow the general tips above, do some reading, start to form some ideas for what you want to do with your team this year. Good luck!

10th Pick. 10 Man League. Quarterbacks? Running Backs? Draft Strategy.

I have conducted several mock drafts from the 10^th spot in a 10 team league. I draft with the notion that the league will have the following format.

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 2WR
• 1 WR/RB (Flex)
• 1 TE
• 1 K
• 1 DEF

In a flex league I believe it is key to have three solid running backs. I have written about my draft strategy in other posts on this site. I recommend reading http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/06/fantasy-football-strategy-2012-general.html to understand many of my notions and reasoning for drafting how I do. In a flex league it is useful to go with three running backs. Three starting running backs can generally put up solid numbers week by week. The hope is that they will have steady performance and not put up extremely low fantasy points numbers week by week.

The tenth spot is an interesting spot to draft from. You get the advantage of drafting two players in a row. This is useful, it is nice to double up at the end of the first round. The draw back is you have to wait a long time for your next pick. I experimented with drafting an elite quarterback with my first set of picks, or choosing to draft two runningbacks. In leagues with a flex, I believe these are the players that you need to pick early. There is plenty of receiving depth that can be found in later rounds of the draft. The best example can be found between the following players in a situation from one of my mock drafts. (All predicted fantasy points courtesy of ESPN)

1st Round Pick

Matt Forte
10^th pick of the draft I take Matt Forte (199) (The top six point producers are gone, he is tied for seventh with Trent Richardson. I also personally think he will have a great year.)

2nd Round Pick

Drew Brees

11^th pick of the draft I take Drew Brees (345) (Rodgers and Brady are gone, Brees ranks third in predicted points)

3rd Round Pick

Fred Jackson

30^th pick I draft Fred Jackson (185) I believe he will get plenty of carries in Buffalo and should have a solid year. They did fairly well when he was healthy last year.

4th Round Pick

Darren Sproles

31^st pick I draft Darren Sproles (164) He is a weapon, and has the potential to put up some decent fantasy points again.

These are the players I could draft at quarterback if I waited until round three to draft a quarterback.

Mike Vick 271

Peyton Manning 279

Both Vick and Manning are great quarterbacks, they can also be a good addition in fantasy football. However, I am happy with taking Brees in the first as my alternative. Brees put up 345 points, that is 66 more points then Manning, and 74 points more then Vick. Drew Brees brings you points that make the difference between winning and losing fantasy games.

The two best remaining halfbacks in round three are Michael Turner (182) and Ahmad Bradshaw (167). I am happy with having Fred Jackson and Sproles instead of those two, both combinations of players yield 349 points. Turner and Bradshaw combined equal to 349 points, as do Sproles and Jackson. Therefore it is clear that Brees is the difference maker in this equation, and having a strong quarterback could lead to those extra 70 points that mean the world in fantasy football. The only thing I would have done differently in this scenario is take Maurice Jones-Drew. I maybe would have several weeks ago, however with his holdout still on going I had a better feeling about Forte putting up consistent numbers. I could be wrong however, and I would not necessarily stay away from MJD, but bear mind what happened with Chris Johnson last year.

Here are four teams I drafted with point totals excluding kickers, backups, and defense.

Quarterback in First Set of Picks
Draft 1

Matt Forte 199

Drew Brees 345

Fred Jackson 185

Darren Sproles 164

Demaryius Thomas 138

Aaron Hernandez 121

Kenny Britt 134

Torrey Smith 123

Total of 1409 Fantasy Points

Draft 2

Matt Forte 199

Matthew Stafford 338

Reggie Bush 150

Wes Welker 176

Donald Brown 134

Percy Harvin 150

Tamme 107

Stevie Johnson 134

Total of 1378 Fantasy Points

No Quarterback in First Set of Picks

Draft 3

Chris Johnson 215

Matt Forte 199

Darren Sproles 164

Jordy Nelson 149

Percy Harvin 150

Peyton Manning 263

Jacob Tamme 107

Kenny Britt 134

Total of 1381 Fantasy Points

Draft 4

Maurice Jones-Drew 299

Matt Forte 199

Jordy Nelson 149

Mike Vick 271

Reggie Bush 150

Aaron Hernandez 121

Reggie Wayne 101

Titus Young 107

Total of 1327 Fantasy Points

I was able to draft good teams by taking a quarterback with my first set of picks, or taking one later on in the draft as I display in my other two teams displayed above. I never use my first two picks on receivers. It is important to use your first two picks on positions that can't be easily filled in later rounds. It is impossible to get a guy like Matt Forte in later rounds. Reggie Bush is a good third runningback, and he is only slated for 150 fantasy points. That is 49 points less than Forte. By comparison Wes Welker is slated for 176 fantasy points, while Percy Harvin is slated for 150. A 26 point difference, you can also get Harvin two rounds later. It is those point differences at various positions that should impact your draft decisions. I covered those in the article linked at the top of this page.

The important thing is to monitor what is going on in the draft you take part in. You should always be willing to adapt to what is happening on the draft board. It is important to establish a running game, which is why I ensure I take a runningback in the first, however if Calvin Johnson were available at the tenth spot I may have taken him and a runningback in the first round. Then again it is tough to say what I would do.  Would I take Calvin Johnson and an elite quarterback? Or Calvin Johnson and a star runningback? Every draft is different. Maximize the value of your picks wherever you can. I was able to land Reggie Bush in numerous mock drafts. If I have Reggie Bush as my third runningback, playing in my flex spot, I feel good about the draft. It is much easier to fill needs at wideout later in the draft then it is to fill needs at halfback.

Update:
Here is an actual team I drafted in a 10 person league with a live draft. The league also makes use of individual defensive players. http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.ca/2012/08/10-man-live-draft-idp-max-ppg.html

Here is my 2014 Fantasy Football Guide! I have changed elements of my strategy. The information on the link below is more up to date. It will give you insight of the 2014 draft.
http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.com/2014/08/2014-positions-value-draft-strategy.html

Upcoming Analysis

I have been conducting live mock drafts at fantasyfootballcalculator.com  I am going to take my teams from there and crunch some numbers and post my results in a few days. I have been picking out of the tenth spot. I need too pick from the tenth spot two more times to have four mock drafts and have some good information. I also plan on drafting from the middle of the draft to have some different data. I am a strong believer in needing an elite quarterback, however not as the cost of hindering your running game. Through my mock drafts I have found some interesting ideas about how to achieve the most success from the tenth spot. I will be testing the earlier spot to see if getting an upper echelon quarterback in the second round is a possibility. The trend seems to be Brees, Rodgers, and Brady going early in the first round. However I believe taking someone like Stafford or Newton in the second round can be advantageous if from an earlier position in the draft. It will all be evident in my next post.

Quarterback in First Round: Aaron Rodgers as 1st Pick or Lesean McCoy

In recent mock drafts Aaron Rodgers has been going as the third pick. If I had the third pick I would take LeSean McCoy. I believe it is essential to not miss out on the points McCoy is predicted to bring you. The draft I examined and the situation I am writing for is in a twelve team league. My predicted points are from ESPN, and the mock draft is from http://www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com

If I take Aaron Rodgers with the third pick I have to wait 18 picks for my second pick to occur. That is quite unfortunate. In that time 10 running backs will be taken, which totals 12 if you count Foster and Rice. They went as the first and second pick. By the time my second pick happens statistically the best runningback is Jamal Charles. Rodgers will no doubt have a stellar year in Green Bay. Jamal Charles should also have a good year. However you  have to ask yourself what type of year Jamal Charles is going to have coming off an injury and how much time will he be splitting with the other backs in Kansas City.

Aaron Rodgers 381

Jamal Charles 186

Total Points: 567

The combination of Jamal Charles and Aaron Rodgers is 567 points. This is not terrible, however I am about to show you the benefit in taking a running back with your first pick.

If you take LeSean McCoy with the third pick you are grabbing yourself an elite runningback. McCoy is in the top 5 runningbacks for predicted points. He is going to have a good year. The Eagles have him as a key piece in their offense. By taking McCoy with the third pick your are filling an essential spot on your fantasy team. It is key to have a starting running back, McCoy being is the top 5 just sweetens the deal. I would take Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Lynch all later in the round. If LeSean McCoy is my first fantasy pick I'm happy. In the second round I then take Matt Stafford. Stafford goes 23^rd in the mock draft, I would be able to get him with the 22^nd pick. Matt Stafford plays in the pass happy Detroit Lions offense, and has a great weapon in Calvin Johnson. He has the leagues leading point producing wideout.

LeSean McCoy 245

Matt Stafford 338

Total Points:583

Matt Stafford and LeSean McCoy will net you 583 points. Aaron Rodgers and Jamal Charles net you 567 points. With the mock drafts standing how they do right now, not taking a running back with the third pick results in 12 running backs being off the draft board before you take your first. Aaron Rodgers is no doubt going to have a great year, however I would advise drafting a strong running back and trying to get a quarterback in the second round before burning up a top five draft pick on a quarterback in the first. The difference in points between the two duos is 16 points. Those points can be key in the long run. I truly believe the benefit of taking McCoy instead of Rodgers is ensuring yourself a decent running game. Jamal Charles may have a stellar year, he could prove all the predictions and calculations I just did to be wrong. Rodgers and Charles may out do McCoy and Stafford, however if I draft Stafford and McCoy instead of Rodgers and Charles I will feel like I made the more beneficial decision at the draft. I believe Stafford and McCoy will result in a higher point combination.

Fantasy Football Strategy 2012: General Strategy, The 8th Pick

Update: Read my 2013 guide!
http://mondaymorningowner.blogspot.com/2013/08/fantasy-football-2013.html

Many different websites offer various strategies and tips to aide in drafting a fantasy team.  People in my fantasy league keep boasting about how they are going to pick the best team in 2012, or how they are going to win a championship this year. Fantasy football success and failure is determined by more then the initial drafting of a team.  Success can be obtained through the waiver wire,  can be hindered by stars under performing,  and can emerge from new stars emerging from obscurity.  Although these other methods of team building can lead you to success, the only  aspect of Fantasy Football that can be truly planned; while also being essential to success throughout the year is the draft. You are never going to be able to get Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers, or any other Top 5 predicted players off waivers; unless they have some incredible injury. Several different things are needed for successful drafting. The first is finding out who to draft. What makes a great fantasy team? I know some leagues differ in point structures and format, the one I play in has the following format.

• 1 Quarterback
• 2 Runningbacks
• 2 Wide Receivers
• 1 Tight End
• 1 Wide Receivers or Runningback
• 1 Kicker
• 1 Team Defense
   

What I seek to find out is what is the most efficient and effective way to draft. What positions require Top 10 point producers? What positions require Top 5 point producers? Basically I seek to find out what positions produce points that differ greatly. I'm figuring out whether it is more beneficial to have Calvin Johnson or Aaron Rodgers. Those kind of scenarios. Everything changes during the draft but I seek to have some sort of basic strategy. Every position has players that produce points to an extent that they deserve to be drafted higher than others. The key to drafting is knowing when to take what position for maximum point production.

I analyzed the stats from last year. I went to http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2011/year-to-date-fantasy-points.cfm and I examined the Fantasy Points accumulated last year. I sought to see which positions Top 5 players average the most amount of Fantasy Points.

The average of the the Top 5 players at QB was 386.66, RB was 264.58, WR was 218.48

and TE was 165.92 Every position had a small number of over achievers. Rob Gronkowski was by far the best Tight End. He would have been second to only Calvin Johnson in FP if he was a Wide Receiver with his stellar 240.9. Calvin Johnson was exceptionally better then his 2^nd and close 3^rd in receiving Jordy Nelson and Wes Welker. He had around 50 more points then them. Rice and McCoy seemed to have superior years for RB's although Jones-Drew and Arian Foster were within 50 points. Rodgers, Brees, Newton and Brady all had amazing years at QB.

The difference between the Top 5 players at a postions, versus the 6-10 ranked players at a position is very telling. When you break players down into tiers and examine the difference in point distribution, you gain  valuable information. All these numbers are based off last years fantasy points produced from fftoolbox.com. All the numbers are averages based on the groupings listed. For example Top 5 QB's equals the Top 5 QB's average out to one number.

• Top 5 QB's =386.66 QB's 5-10=288.24
• Point difference of 98.42
• Top 12=323.05 13-24=203.225
• Point Difference 119.82

• Top 5 RB's= 264.58 RB's 5-10=195.08
• Point difference of 69.5 
• Top 12=221.88 13-24=163.1
• Point Difference of 58.78

• Top 5 WR=218.48 5-10=178.44
• Point Difference=40.04
• Top 12=192.15 Next 12=145.57
• Point Difference= 46.57

• Top 5 TE=165.92 5-10=116.26
• Point Difference=49.66
• Top 12=134.65 13-24=81.76
• Point Difference=52.89

These numbers show us many interesting things. It is clearly beneficial and necessary to draft an elite quarterback. The point differences between QB's 1-5 and 6-10 displays this fact. The 98 point difference between the different groupings is clearly significant. It is also necessary to try and obtain a Top 5 HB. You must start two running backs in Fantasy Football, one of them should be stellar.  The point difference between the various groupings of wide receivers shows that although it is beneficial to obtain a good receiver, you can wait to draft receivers to fill out your roster. Basically, my draft emphasis is first to obtain a solid half back, then ideally a Top 5 Quarterback, after that I either snag an elite high point producing wide receiver or my second running back. It will all become  clear soon. This data will be used further below when I conduct a mock draft.

Examination of last years numbers. Lets look at this years predicted numbers, and a few mock drafts and see what happens. We will follow the principles of the Top 5's and 10's etc; and try to use what we saw from last years end of season stats and blend it with this years predictions.

Using the standard format used in a flex league, I have developed a draft strategy. I examined predicted points from ESPN, found at http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/tools/projections?display=alt for the 2012 season, I compared them with the points from 2011 and the conclusions I had made. There are certain players who have value that exceed the averages of even the average of the Top 5 at their position. These players can give you points that average or even good players most likely won't achieve.  It is important to have players like this on your team. However, drafting players who attribute contributions exceptional at their position may hurt you if you are missing out on getting solid production from another area. I have made a list of players who are truly exceptional on points last year, and predicted points this year. I will list them below. I compiled this before the mock draft.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers
Predicted:381 Last Year:385

 Tom Brady 

Predicted:354 Last Year:352

 Drew Brees 

Predicted:345 Last Year:380
 Matt Stafford

 Predicted:338 Last Year:333

 Cam Newton
Predicted:325 Last Year:352

Halfbacks

Arian Foster
Predicted:296 Last Year: 238
 Ray Rice 

Predicted:278 Last Year:283
 LeSean McCoy 

Predicted:245 Last Year:270

Maurice Jones-Drew
Predicted:229 Last Year:249

Chris Johnson
 Predicted:215 Last Year: 157

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson
 Predicted:224 Last Year:254

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski
Predicted:191 Last Year:233 

Jimmy Graham
Predicted:186 Last Year:187 

These players should get you points that exceed what others can do. I would take any of these players before I took any other player in the draft. I put all five of those running backs first in my draft list. If all of those running backs are gone I take an elite quarterback, if those guys are gone I take Johnson, Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. I believe people over value receivers. People will draft receivers extremely high. However you can wait a round or two and get a receiver of fairly equal value. 

The point differences between elite quarterbacks and average ones is greatest. So it is extremely important to get a great quarterback, but not ideal to cast aside having a great halfback. You need two good runningbacks in a flex league, one should be in the upper echelon of the league. In fact it is ideal if you have three good runningbacks!

To begin the mock draft process I used a random number generator and went with the first outcome.  The result was the number 8. Examining data from the mockdrafts on www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. If I have the eight pick I refer to my list. These players have been taken.

Taken

Arian Foster 1st

Ray Rice 2nd

LeSean McCoy 3rd

Aaron Rodgers 4^th
Calvin Johnson 5^th

Calvin Johnson 6th

Chris Johnson 7th

Remaining

Maurice Jones-Drew

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Matt Stafford

Cam Newton

Rob Gronkowski

Jimmy Graham

1st Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew

At that point I take Maurice Jones-Drew. He is a solid halfback, a top five running back. He will provide me with production that is hard to find in other spots. It may seem like a good idea to take a guy like Tom Brady at this point, however missing out on MJD's solid 200+ predicted fantasy points will seriously hurt me during the year. In fantasy football you need at least one solid running back. Your first pick should be a halfback.  I then have to wait eight picks for my next pick.

Taken

Tom Brady 9th

Drew Brees 16^th

Remaining

Matt Stafford

Cam Newton

Rob Gronkowski

Jimmy Graham

2nd Pick: Matt Stafford

At this point I take Matt Stafford. I was thinking of taking a running back like Matt Forte or Tight Ends Rob Gronkowski, or Jimmy Graham. However I then calculated the difference. If I take Stafford and a lesser halfback later on, a guy like Reggie Bush, I can make 734 points with the duo and MJD. If I take Matt Forte, and a lesser predicted QB like Mike Vick I will only have 707 points. Those points matter in the long run.It is also more important to me to have Matt Stafford then one of the remarkable TE's. Stafford plays with Calvin Johnson, barring an unfortunate injury he is going to put up stellar numbers this year.  Your 2nd pick being a quarterback is fine. I would rather have Stafford on my team then have Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Forte with an inferior quarterback.

Third Pick: Roddy White

By the time I reach my third pick many of the elite point producing halfbacks are gone. Luckily I have snagged MJD who will most likely put up solid production. My third round pick is Roddy White. He is a solid number one receiver. I believe that although halfbacks are of importance in fantasy Roddy White's 173 points put him into a position where it is worth drafting him. I will never use a 1st or 2nd pick on a wide out unless it is Calvin Johnson. There is just to much importance from the points an upper echelon quarterback and halfback can produce. In fact I probably would not even use a 1st round pick on Johnson. I think he is going to have the best year of any wideout in the league. I believe he is a remarkable player, however I can't risk not drafting a halfback to take him. Roddy White is a good third pick. He is extremely valuable, he is in the top five for projected points.

Calvin Johnson-224 points

Larry Fitzgerald-184 

Wes Welker-176

Roddy White-173 points
Andre Johnson-172

Greg Jennings-166

AJ Green -169

Mike Wallace-169

Therefore it is okay to grab one of these guys with your third pick to be your number one receiver. The interesting thing is all the receivers except Mike Wallace we're taken before I got White in the average mockdraft. We already have a good RB in MJD, and a good QB in Stafford, White is going to be the cornerstone of our receiving core.The fact that we're getting him in the third round is what is so great. In the mockdraft 8 TE/WR were taken before I was able to get Roddy. People will use 1st and 2nd round picks to get those receivers and tight ends. My belief is get a great HB, great QB, then try to steal a guy like Roddy White when you can. Don't take a receiver if you are not strong else where.

Fourth Pick: Reggie Bush

My fourth round pick is Reggie Bush. He is a good halfback to have as my number two. Predicted low, but I believe he will have a big year. Bush rushed for over 1000 yards last year, and although I do not want him to be my number one back, he is a solid number two.I believe he will have some big games this year, which can ultimately help win you fantasy games.

Fifth Pick: Roy Helu

In the Mock Draft I examined Roy Helu was still around by the time my fifth pick occurred.

If so I draft Roy Helu. The Redskins do sort of run their halfbacks by committee, however Helu emerged as a number one guy last season. He has great value as my flex player.To be able to have 3 starting running backs on your team is incredibly helpful. I believe it is best to have a runningback as your flex player.

Sixth Pick: Aaron Hernandez

My sixth pick would then be Aaron Hernandez. He is my starting Tight End. He is going to put up solid numbers in the Patriots pass happy offense.

Seventh Pick:Denarius Moore

My seventh pick is Denarius Moore.He is my second wide receiver. I believe he has the potential to have a good year. He had some monstrous games last year, and Carson Palmer should hopefully get him the ball many times this year.

Eight Pick: San Francisco Defense

My eight pick will be the San Francisco defense. They did not produce the most fantasy points last year, however they we're consistent in keeping the score low last year, had arguably the best defense in the NFL, play the Rams twice a year, and are consistent.

Ninth Pick:Legarette Blount

My eight pick will be Legarette Blount. He is not projected to be the starter in Tampa, however he should be good for a bye week, and could emerge as the eventual starter. 

Tenth Pick: Stephen Gostkowski

My ninth pick is New England's kicker Gostkowski. The Patriots will be scoring this year, therefore Gostkowski will be as well.

I won't continue to list off who I will pick. At this point it is just rounding out my bench. What I have established is my basic fantasy strategy. It hinges on obtaining strength in the running game, an elite quarterback, obtaining a number one receiver past round two, and filling out my receiving corps in later rounds. I will continue to post more relating to my fantasy strategy and display it's benefits.