I have used the concept of VBD in other articles on this site. I have decided to analyze where players are being drafted via ADP data, and cross referencing their "value". I am doing this in order to determine who is being drafted higher/lower in position than their value would indicate. It is ideal to find players, positions, and areas of the draft that are under/over valued. Gaining this information will help you immensely during the draft for your fantasy league.
QB
The table above displays various stats for quarterbacks. The data shows that many QB's exist who can provide you with similar numbers. The average of the eleven quarterbacks below the top three (Manning, Rodgers, Brees) is 289.6. You can look at the chart and see that there are eight quarterbacks who all have value numbers between 15 and 40. Eight quarterbacks across rounds 4 to 8. If the projections are correct, there will be numerous quarterbacks who are projected to get you between 280 and 310 fantasy points. This data shows that the quarterback position is one that you should not be drafting early. The exception would be if you are drafting Rodgers, Brees, or Manning. These three are projected to bring you so many points that they are actually in the Top 30 players for value. Manning coming in as the 8th most valuable player in the draft, Brees at 28th, Rodgers at 21. Those players can be worked into a draft strategy. What this tells me is that unless you truly believe that any of the players between Matthew Stafford to Colin Kaepernick are going to have a "Peyton Manningesque" season in terms of FPP's; you should not reach in a draft to get one of these players. Don't take Andrew Luck in the fifth (unless you think he will put up a +300 point fantasy year) as you can get RGIII in the seventh who will produce similar numbers.
RB
38 running backs will likely be drafted in the first 100 picks. That element of ADP data shows that most managers draft their 2 (3 if you play in a RB/WR flex league) "starting" running backs and another to back them up within 100 picks. I have seen other managers and even myself carried 4 RB's or more on a roster. Running backs are a needed element on your fantasy team. 16 of the top 30 players by value are running backs. 6 in the 1-10 range, 6 in the 11-20 range, and 4 in the 20-30 range.
If you end up with an high draft pick I would recommend taking Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Lesean McCoy or Matt Forte. There are many running backs who can give you between 190 and 210 fantasy points. My last two sentences may seem careless and rushed, but there is a larger point to be made. You need to draft a running back in the first two rounds. Regardless of if your pick is early, middle, or late in the draft order.
You do not have to draft two running backs right off the bat, in fact I am a proponent of drafting an elite WR and great running back when I have a late first round pick. However, it is clear that you can not wait until the 4th or 5th round to draft your first running back. In most leagues you have to play a minimum 2 running backs. It is evident that your best running back should not be a 160-170 fantasy point guy, you ideally want a player who will exceed 190 fantasy points. Draft an RB in the first two rounds, look for depth at RB in later rounds, find RB sleepers, you need to be researching and drafting running backs if you want a shot at a title this year.
WR
38 wide receivers will likely be drafted in the first 100 picks of the draft. Most leagues require either three WR or two WR with an option of an RB or WR as a flex. Wideout is a position that you must draft intelligently. I believe it is a good idea to draft a strong wide receiver. 10 wide receivers are in the top 30 for fantasy value; 2 in the top 10, 3 from 11 to 20, and 5 from 20 to 30.
Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Brandon Marshall are all players I would personally love to have on my fantasy team. I would draft any of these players in the later half of the first through to the end of the second round. I would give consideration to Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jefferey, and Antonio Brown as well (during the second round).
The third to the sixth round features wide receivers who hover between 130 and 160 fantasy points (based on projections). You have to go with your own personal thoughts and research when picking receivers. Plenty of WR exist between the 3rd to 6th round that give you similar production. You need to be drafting players who you believe have upside or will exceed projections. You also need to be drafting great players at other positions if they are still available. My ideal drafts from the 12th spot (I have been practicing picking 12th for an upcoming draft) see me landing Dez Bryant in the first, I then draft the best running back available to pair with him. This allows me to then draft my 2nd running back in the third. I then am able to draft the best available WR or RB in the fourth.
The biggest piece of advice I can give based on WR value stats is don't reach to get wide receivers not in the first or second round. Draft players who you believe will exceed projections, draft players who slide in draft position. If you can get Randall Cobb in the late third round go for it, but don't draft him if it leaves you neglecting your running game. Based on projections there are 12 players who will finish between 130 and 150 fantasy points, and 10 who will finish with between 150 and 170 fantasy points. Wide receiver drafting is all about drafting players who slide and not unnecessarily reaching for players.
TE
Tight ends are an interesting position in fantasy football. Jimmy Graham is projected to have the best season. He is the only tight end projected to break the 1,000 receiving yard mark this year. I have never had Graham on any of my fantasy teams, he is the 17th most valuable player in the draft. I personally would not take him in the first round. In this years draft I truly believe I will be waiting to draft a tight end. Far more valuable players can be drafted at most levels where managers are reaching for tight ends. Many more valuable players exist in the third round when Gronkowski and Thomas are typically being drafted. I would take the following players who are all rated higher then Gronk and Thomas and are projected for the third round: Doug Martin, Zac Stacey, Alshon Jeffrey, Andre Ellington, Randall Cobb, Vicent Jackson, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller. Several players projected to go in the fourth round are also better picks then Thomas and Gronk.
It is important to examine value before your fantasy football draft. The chart and projections from sites don't have to completely rule your draft strategy, but they should at least influence it. It is important to not draft players early who have similar point producing players who can be drafted later. Good luck everyone!
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