Team Defense Total Points

In the year 2012 the average NFL team gave up 364 points or 22.75 points a game. If you take all 32 NFL teams and take the median you have the San Diego Chargers giving up 350 points or 21.87 points a game. For my example we will use the average instead of the median. Using the mean instead of the median causes the inclusion of 2 more teams being above the “line” of not finishing below average in points allowed.

The above chart displays that the following teams had below average defense in terms of points allowed: Cleveland Brown, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans.

I was interested to see how much these teams points allowed stat would change from 2012 to 2013. Below is a chart displaying that information.

The average for 2013 changed to 23.4 (more scoring throughout the NFL) and the median to the Tennessee Titans giving up 23.81. I once again use the mean instead of the median to calculate below average teams. The below average teams are as follows: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings.

Of the 15 teams who finished below average defensively, 13 returned as below average teams the following year. The exceptions to this trend were the Saints and the Chiefs. The Saints and the Chiefs both improve their total points by over 100 points. The Saints improved by 150 points or 9.37 points a game, while the Chiefs improved by 120 or 7.39 points a game.

The average change in a defense from 2009-2013 was 3.83 points a game, or 61.28 points over a season. The average from 2012 to 2013 was 3.67 points a game or 58.72 points over a season. The Chiefs and Saints we're clearly anomalies in the way they improved their defense to a such a large degree.

The Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago Bears all had drastic changes in their point totals. 

These teams illustrate that it is possible for defenses who finish in the upper tier of the league to have a drop off in point total that exceed the norm. Out of the 32 NFL teams 11 of them had a change in terms of moving either up or down below the league average for points given up. I have listed the teams that had the most drastic changes.

Playoff Pool Picks

This week I picked the Colts to beat the Chiefs, the Saints to beat the Eagles, the 49ers to beat the Packers, and the Bengals to beat the Chargers.

Update

I have many big plans for this website. I plan to learn elements of computer programming in  order to utilize my calculations to project stats for next season. I want to analyze teams, trends, scoring, and other elements of fantasy football.  I also plan to launch a weekly fantasy show next year, and will have a partner contributing to this site.

My fantasy football season has had many ups and downs. I gambled and drafted Lamar Miller in my 12 man league. I bought into his hype being spewed out by other fantasy football writers. I have no regrets. If he had panned out I would have had three starting running backs. In my twelve man league I am 7-7. Playing in the consolation playoffs (4 teams made the playoffs, 4 teams made the consolation playoffs) to attempt to win the prize of not paying a league fee.

My ten man league has seen me completely dominate. I finished the season 12-1. The league is absurd. 8 make the playoffs out of ten. I have advanced onto the finals and hope to repeat as season and playoff champion. My defensive players (IDP league)  have performed well. My first three picks of Doug Martin, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant worked out even with Martin getting a season ending injury.

I am 108-110 in picking against the spread for the year. I sit in 5th place, I am six wins away from first place with two weeks left in the season. I will have to pick very well in order to land in first place.

I hope that the fantasy year was kind to anyone who checked out this blog. I plan to have an improved draft strategy, and some really amazing content for everyone next year.

Week 11 Waiver Pick Up

November is flying by! The eleventh week of the NFL season is upon us. The pool of players available for waiver pick is barren (unless you are in a sub 10 team league). If you are looking for a player off waivers, you will have few quality options. Most of the stellar players not drafted have either already been picked up, or ended up fizzling out (yes I was on the Edelman band wagon early in the year).

Riley Cooper

He is currently owned in 51% of Yahoo! leagues, he should be owned in all. It is quite possible he is already owned in twelve team leagues and higher.  Last week I advised fantasy owners to pick up Riley Cooper off waivers. Those who followed the advice we're rewarded with a huge performance against the Packers. Cooper scored two touchdowns, and had a total of 102 receiving yards. Nick Foles and Riley Cooper have amazing chemistry, and the duo has proved they we're not one week wonders. He has amassed 55.90 fantasy points over the last two weeks, and has cemented himself as a legitimate fantasy receiver for the remainder of the year. I like that the numbers we're attained in games where the Eagles we're not playing catch up. The success came in a 27-13 win over Green Bay, and Nick Foles record tying day, a seven touchdown performance in a 49-20 win over the Raiders. This proves that Foles throws to Cooper even when the Eagles have a lead, which is a good sign.

 Jerricho Cotchery
 If you are looking for a fill in for Dallas' bye week, I would suggest Jerricho Cotchery.  He is only owned in 14% of Yahoo! leagues.  He has a respectable 82 fantasy points on the year.  He has reached the endzone six times this year, four times in the last two weeks. Some would call his surge of touchdowns flukey, I say it shows that Ben Roethlisberger throws him the ball in the red zone. There are worse players to take a chance on then Jericho Cotchery in Week 1. He has had 36.7 points over the past two weeks, if he stays hot he could benefit your team.  The Steelers will be playing Detroit, who do give up a fair amount of points to wide receivers. Hopefully Big Ben continues to get him the ball in the red zone.

Week 10 Pool Picks

I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are picking, it should be interesting.
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Spread Pool Picks

Last week I went 6 for 13. I currently sit in 5th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 66-65. Here are my picks for Week 10.