2013 Season Summary/What I Learned

My 2013 season was full of ups and downs. I learned many valuable lessons from both my leagues. I learned to not buy in on over hyped players, to value consistency, and to draft players who produce above average fantasy points at their position. A key to fantasy drafting is getting players when they slide down in draft position, and not reaching to get average players. My ten man league (no flex, 3 WR, with individual defensive players) saw me repeat as champion. I only lost once all season. I finished 15-1 including the playoffs. 12-1 was my regular season record.

I knew my season was going to be successful immediately after the draft. My first pick was Doug Martin. Doug Martin did not even end up being that great of a pick. My stellar drafting allowed that fact to not matter.  Doug Martin only played six games, had 456 yards, and scored one touchdown. His season ending injury did not even hurt my team. It would have crippled some teams if their first pick sustained a monstrous injury, not mine. My running backs included: Doug Martin, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson, and Giovanni Bernard (at the time of Martin's injury). My receiving corps consisted of Dez Bryant, AJ Green, and Jordy Nelson. All of the players I mentioned in the past two paragraphs were draft picks except Knowshon, who I snagged off the waiver wire. Drafting is the key to any fantasy season. Picking the "wrong" player in the first few rounds can be devastating. The second, third, and fourth rounds are incredibly important. To be honest every round is important, but the early rounds more so. It is also important to keep your eyes out for players who slide. I drafted Jordy Nelson with the ninth pick in the 10th round! 

My twelve team league has shown me that it is never a good idea to draft a player who you are unsure of in the early rounds. I drafted Lamar Miller based entirely off the fact that "experts" were saying he was going to be a number one running back. People were claiming that he was the go to guy in Miami. He did show some flashes of brilliance, but did not produce solid numbers most of the year. It could have had to do with the Dolphins disastrous offensive line situation. The Johnathan Martin and Richie Incognito saga. I was attempting to draft three remarkable running backs. I wanted a strong running back in my flex spot. While my ten man league is a 3 wide receiver league, this league utilizes a flex. I know hind sight is twenty/twenty, but if I had not bought into the hype I could have drafted  Eddie Lacy or Demarco Murray. Lacy was a player who I had extreme confidence in going into the season, but as I sad I bought into Miller hype. My own personal belief was that Lacy was a strong runner and was going to be on a power house offense. I should have picked him and trusted my beliefs instead of taking a running back for the Dolphins. A running back for the Dolphins who I really knew nothing about.  I could have even drafted Eric Decker, or Wes Welker. I ended up finishing 7-7 this year. 9-7 if you count my wins in the consolation playoff. My whole season came down to my errant Miller pick. I almost has a trade deadline trade where I would have sent Tony Gonzalez and Miller for Julius Thomas. The trade did not end up going through, but it would not have saved me and bumped me into the playoffs.

I can not emphasize enough that the majority of your fantasy football success hinges on the draft. Acquiring players who find themselves in starting roles off waivers is important, it could be one of the vital points to your season, But you can not win an entire year off waivers, you need a good draft.

Update

I have many big plans for this website. I plan to learn elements of computer programming in  order to utilize my calculations to project stats for next season. I want to analyze teams, trends, scoring, and other elements of fantasy football.  I also plan to launch a weekly fantasy show next year, and will have a partner contributing to this site.

My fantasy football season has had many ups and downs. I gambled and drafted Lamar Miller in my 12 man league. I bought into his hype being spewed out by other fantasy football writers. I have no regrets. If he had panned out I would have had three starting running backs. In my twelve man league I am 7-7. Playing in the consolation playoffs (4 teams made the playoffs, 4 teams made the consolation playoffs) to attempt to win the prize of not paying a league fee.

My ten man league has seen me completely dominate. I finished the season 12-1. The league is absurd. 8 make the playoffs out of ten. I have advanced onto the finals and hope to repeat as season and playoff champion. My defensive players (IDP league)  have performed well. My first three picks of Doug Martin, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant worked out even with Martin getting a season ending injury.

I am 108-110 in picking against the spread for the year. I sit in 5th place, I am six wins away from first place with two weeks left in the season. I will have to pick very well in order to land in first place.

I hope that the fantasy year was kind to anyone who checked out this blog. I plan to have an improved draft strategy, and some really amazing content for everyone next year.

First Round Drafting: 2013

Are you unsure of who to draft in the first round? Do you seek guidance in your Fantasy Football quest? Do you yearn to know which gridiron warrior can lead you to glory? The answers to these questions follow. I outline who I believe you should pick from each draft spot in the first round. I am using a 12 team league for this analysis. I believe most owners should take a running back in the first round. Running backs are the position that have the least amount of depth. It does not matter whether you are playing in a standard league with three wide receivers, or a league with a flex. The difference between having a Top 12 Running Back and a lower tier running back is enormous. I use this example from last year.

12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson	24th Ranked RB: Willis McGahee	Point Difference
182.9	119.2	63.7

If you compare Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson the jump from the best running back in the league to the 12th is even greater.

1st Ranked RB: Adrian Peterson	12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson	Point Difference
309.4	182.9	126.5

I attempt to draft without personal bias and to get the best draft results you should as well. The example above displays the importance of drafting an elite running back. As the draft continues on I believe it is important to draft elite players. You do not necessarily have to draft back to back running backs. All you have to do is draft the player who will out perform his peers. My draft strategy is assembled after doing some number crunching, examining previous year stats, and examining the upcoming years projections. This guide however is not a thesis on my fantasy football beliefs but a quick guide on who I believe should be taken in the first round.

1^st PICK

Adrian Peterson

Adrian Peterson is an amazing running back. Many players who had an early draft pick last year opted for another running back. His draft stock dropped last year due to his recovery from a ACL and MCL tear. A.P showed the entire football world that he was back and better then ever. He fell just nine yards shy of breaking the single season rushing record rushing with 2,097 yards. He put up an amazing 309.40 fantasy points. The next best running back was short of A.P's fantasy point production by 44.8 points. The running back position has the highest fall off from elite to average. One key element of my draft strategy is to have an elite running back. Running backs are a commodity that flies off the draft board. I believe Peterson is the best running back or player you can take in the first draft spot. He has emerged as the best running back in football. He has not let a serious injury hamper his career, lead the NFL in rushing last year, led all RBs in fantasy points, and should have another amazing year. He is aptly nicknames all day, and if you pick him first he may lead you all the way to a championship.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
269.91	279	272.4	309.4

Above Sites

2^ND PICK

Doug Martin

Doug Martin had an impressive rookie campaign. He amassed 264.6 fantasy points. Arian Foster edged him by a very small margin of fantasy points. Foster beat him by .2 of a point. Martin made a huge impact last year, and is clearly the number one running back in the Tampa Bay offense. He has Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks healthy which will help the Buccaneers offensive line. Martin should be able to put up great numbers this year, and the sites I have referenced have him ranked in the Top 5 for projected running back fantasy points. While Peterson was my definite number one pick, I had more difficulty deciding who should be taken with the 2nd pick. Doug Martin and the Buccaneers have the 3rd easiest schedule for running backs, while Arian Foster and the Texans have the 4th. What puts Martin ahead of Arian Foster on my draft board is the lack of any injuries clouding his potential output for the season.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
237.08	226	247.2	264.6

Above Sites

3^rd PICK

C.J. Spiller

Spiller has cemented himself as the number on back in Buffalo. Spiller managed to put up 218.3 fantasy points last year. He did this with only 250 touches. His touches should go up this year, which will result in even more fantasy points for the 4th year back. As a team, Buffalo is in weird spot. They have not enjoyed success in recent years. E.J. Manuel, Kevin Kolb, and Jeff Tuel are the three quarterbacks taking snaps for the Bills. E.J. Manuel just hurt his knee, Kolb has been a bust in years past, Tuel is an undrafted rookie. Buffalo will have to rely on Spiller in order to win games.  Expect big things from Spiller this year.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
234.85	227	237.6	218.3

Above Sites

4^th PICK

Arian Foster

Arian Foster has scored over 250 fantasy points yearly, for the past three seasons. He is currently dealing with a back problem, and he will be missing all of the preseason. He claims he will be ready for the regular season. I would believe the man, and not let the injuries deter you from drafting Arian Foster. He has consistently performed over the past few seasons, and has made big impacts for the fantasy owners lucky enough to draft him. Foster get the ball constantly. In 2010 he had 393 touches, in 2011 he had 331, last year he had 391. A player getting the ball frequently gives him more opportunities to amass fantasy points. He is similar to Adrian Peterson in respect to the fact that he is one of the few elite running backs who can exceed 230 fantasy points, and has done so for the past three years.I would take Arian Foster higher but his current injury dropped him two spots. With your first pick in the draft you ideally want a player who is going into the season healthy, and who you believe will be playing all year. While Foster is not playing in the preseason, I believe he will have a great season. I would rather take a chance on Foster producing big numbers then draft any of the other running backs slotted after him on my draft board.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
255.82	261	221.9	264.8

Above Sites

5^th PICK

Marshawn Lynch

Lynch had an excellent year in 2012. He had 250.6 fantasy points. I believe that this kind of performance is repeatable. Some people are projecting Lynch to not repeat these numbers, I believe he will. The Seahawks finished 3rd in Rushing Yards, and 9th in total points. Russel Wilson's success at quarterback will not hinder Lynch, it will help him. The more Seattle's offense clicks the more yards and touchdowns Lynch can gain. In 2012 the Seahawks had two games where they absolutely annihilated their opponents. In those two games Lynch still put up remarkable numbers with limited opportunities. When they beat the Cardinals 58-0, he had 11 attempts, 30.8 fantasy points. When they beat the Bills 50-17 he had 10 attempts, 18.7 fantasy points. Lynch gets his numbers in blow outs, close games, any game. I believe his success will continue. 

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
212.33	233	224.3	250.6

Above Sites

6^th PICK

Ray Rice

Ray Rice is sliding in many fantasy football Mock Drafts. I believe he still has what it takes to be a Top 5 running back. Rice scored 296.8 fantasy points two years ago, 222.1 last year. Analysts are curious if the emergence of Bernard Pierce will damage Rice's output. I do not think it will be significant enough to stop me from picking him. Baltimore has lost Dennis Pita to injury, Anquan Boldin to the 49ers, and do not have the most amazing WRs in the league. Ray Rice could see more receptions this year, and I believe will exceed the 222 fantasy points he put up last year. Hey, diddle diddle, Ray Rice up the middle!

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
203.58	232	225.0	221.1

Above Sites

7^th PICK

Alfred Morris

Alfred Morris had an amazing rookie year. He entered the season as a sixth round draft pick and emerged as the NFL's second leading rusher. He finished 5th in fantasy points for a running back with 246.3. His main knock would be he only had eleven receptions for 77 yards with zero touchdowns. Although he is not a receiving threat, he is an amazing running back to have on your fantasy squad. He rushed for 1606 yards. He is a vicious runner and plays in an dynamic offense with RG III. Draft him if you have the chance!

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
206.16	219	232.2	246.3

Above Sites

8^th PICK

Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson is coming off a record breaking season. He hauled in 122 catches for 1,964 yards. He only scored five touchdowns and still managed to put up 226.4 fantasy points. My philosophy is to make sure I have an elite running back while drafting. Calvin Johnson is the only wide receiver who I would take in the first round. I believe taking Calvin Johnson in the 8th spot is worth doing. He will pull in numbers that warrant his drafting. Having Calvin Johnson is the safest bet you can have for production at the wide receiver position. If you draft him here you must make sure you shore up your running game in the upcoming rounds.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
211.10	236	234.5	220.4

Above Sites

9^th PICK

LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy has had some huge fantasy years. In 2011 he had 1,309 rushing yards, 17 rushing touchdowns, 315 receive yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. He gained 282.4 fantasy yards. He missed games last year due to a concussion, and the Eagles had a dreadful year. The Eagles now have a new coach, and McCoy could deliver an excellent fantasy year. He managed 151.3 points in 12 games, that equates to 12.58 fantasy points a game. The Eagles will utilize McCoy under Chip Kelly and if you can draft him as late as ninth do it!

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
218.38	200	223.1	151.3

Above Sites

10^th PICK

Trent Richardson

Richardson had a solid rookie campaign. He rushed for 957 yards, 11 touchdowns, and earned 203 fantasy points. He is clearly the number one running back for the Browns. He should get plenty of touches this year, he is a threat running and catching the ball. Last year he rushed 267 times, and hauled in 51 catches on 70 targets. Richardson battled injuries and saw limited touches early last year, he also missed the entire preseason. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. If the Browns can stay in games and muster any sort of offense he should exceed his numbers from last year by a large amount.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
223.03	226	213.5	203.7

Above Sites

11^th PICK

Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles finished with 210.9 fantasy points last year, finishing eighth in fatasy points for running backs. Two years ago he suffered an ACL tear in week two and missed the remainder of the season. Charles was able to return strong, and although he was distant from his 241.5 fantasy points he achieved in 2010, he still had a productive year. His issue holding back his fantasy point scoring is a lack of touchdowns. He is a threat both rushing and catching the ball, and could have a very productive year. Andy Reid is the new coach in KC, and Alex Smith is the new quarterback. Both of these factors could lead in an increase in Charles' numbers.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
229.06	228	222.1	210.9

Above Sites

12^th PICK

Matt Forte

Matt Forte's forte is not scoring touchdowns. However he does put up a respectable amount of fantasy points. Forte put up five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown last year. If he scored more touchdowns he could be a true fantasy beast. He 1,094 yards rushing and 340 yards receiving. Hopefully new Bears Co-Ordinator Marc Tressman utilizes Forte, and he amasses more fantasy points. Forte is a solid pick at the end of the first round. He could deliver over 200 fantasy points and at the low end should deliver 170.

Yahoo Projected Points	ESPN Projected Points	FF Today Projected Points	2012 Points
209.67	182	196.8	179.4

Above Sites

Fantasy Football 2013

READ MY UPDATED 2014 GUIDE

The draft in this years Fantasy Football season is shaping up to be significantly different then last years. It is important to note the differences in order to have a successful fantasy year. I have had to analyze numbers and change elements of my draft strategy.

Quarterbacks were being drafted much earlier last year. The chart below shows the difference in what positions were drafted early in the draft, comparing this years mocks and last years drafts. We use 12 team drafts for this example. (Using ADP Data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com )

In 2011 the passing yards and Fantasy Points produced by Quarterbacks were very high. The Top 5 QB's averaged 383.68 Fantasy Points. This resulted in last year (the 2012 season) having high projections for QB's, and people drafting QB's fairly early in the draft.

Quarterbacks ended up not doing as spectacular during the 2012 season. Only averaging 344.5 points. The important thing to note is that the projections and 2011 season numbers influenced how the draft in 2012 panned out. It is very important to adjust your strategy based on the numbers and draft trends. The draft you participate in may be completely different then the tendencies listed for 2013. However it is very important to be prepared.Many people draft off of the rankings on the draft board or have little preparation leading up to the draft. Do your homework!

I believe it is important to have elite players at multiple positions. You can not afford to neglect team needs. Is your league a using flex? Or do you play 3 WR's and 2 RB's? Is it a PPR? Standard scoring? Do you use Team Defense or IDP? Look at those elements of your league and plan your draft.

My 12 team league uses a flex.

1 QB

2 RB

2 WR

1 RB/WR

1 TE

1 DEF

1 K

Knowing your league structure is important. If you have a flex you have the ability to either play three running backs, or three wide receivers. Standard leagues make you play three wide receivers and two running backs. Either way I believe it is extremely important to draft a high point producing running back.

It is obviously ideal to have great point producing players at every position. I have conducted several mock drafts. I have found that it is necessary (especially in a 12 team league) to draft a high point producing running back. You need at least one back to try to bring you elite numbers.

It is important to draft positions that do not have a surplus of talent. It is important to draft a Top 10 Running Back. The drop off from the top 10 RB's to the 11-20 RB's is enormous.  All the charts below deal in averages. I take the players fantasy points and average them out. The chart below shows the importance of having an elite running back.

The difference between the Top 5 players at a given position and the 6 to 10 ranked players at a given position are listed above.

 The difference between the Top 12 players at a given position and the 12-24 ranked players are given above. Quarterbacks were not included since you only need one starter on your team. (Unless in a 2 QB league, but this article is not discussing those) The charts above should give you a good idea as to why I believe it is essential to draft a quality running back. The difference between the top 12 running backs and the 12th to 24th ranked running backs is enormous.  There are more wide receivers that can produce similar numbers then running backs.


I believe a key to fantasy football drafting is to draft the best player available. Draft the player who excels the most compared to his peers.Last year I snagged Andre Johnson really late in a 10 man draft, it really helped my team. Draft the best players available. If Brandon Marshall is around in the 2nd round, take him. Don't take a running back who you do not have faith in just to have two running backs off the bat. Some players do produce truly exceptional numbers. One thing I have noticed in drafts is teams filling "needs". You do not need to draft a Tight End in the sixth round just to hit your requirements. If there is a great Tight End on the board take him! But if you are just drafting to "fill a hole" see if there is something else on the board.


The following is a list of players who are projected to put up exceptional numbers. These players would be a valuable additions to your team, and you should attempt to draft them if you can. (Projections based off Fftoday.com on August 11th)

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees 357
Aaron Rodgers  349.7

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson 268.4
Doug Martin 243.2
Arian Foster 241.9
C.J. Spiller 231.6
Alfred Morris 226.2
 Ray Rice 223.0
Marshawn Lynch 218.3
Jamal Charles 216.1
Lesean McCoy 215.1

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson 230.5
Dez Bryant 205.4
A.J. Green 194
Brandon Marshall 190
Demaryius Thomas 189.9
Julio Jones 187

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham 164.4
Rob Gronkowski 154

The key to my draft strategy is to draft players who have exceptional point production. Point production beyond their peers. I have listed elements of this years draft such as the need to get a running back.  Drafting a good quarterback is important but not as important as drafting a talented running back. You need at least two running backs, and two wide receivers. (1 RB/WR more in a flex, or 1 more WR in "standard" leagues) 

Here is a telling comparison from last years season.

12th Ranked RB

Chris Johnson 182.9 

24th  Ranked RB 

Willis McGahee 119.2

Point Difference 

63.7

12th Ranked WR 

Wes Welker 173.4

24th Ranked WR 

Mike Wallace 132.5

Point Difference 

40.9

Much more depth is found at wide receiver. The drop off from the high level RB's to 2nd Tier and 3rd Tier is enormous. More receivers can provide a similar amount of points. Quarterbacks have an interesting distribution of points as well. The projections state that Brees and Rodgers will have exceptional performances, but believe that Manning, Newton, Stafford, Capernick, and Romo will all be within 20 points of each other.

Good luck to everyone drafting! If you have read this and have any questions feel free to leave a comment. I have posted more links below that could aide you in your draft!

Fantasy Football 2013: Mike Wallace

Mike Wallace has left the Pittsburgh Steelers and will not be catching passes in Miami.  His quarterback is young Ryan Tannehill.To predict how Wallace will perform in 2013 it is necessary to analyze both Wallace, and Tannehill.

Mike Wallace had his best year in 2010. He had 1257 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns and 190 fantasy points. He ranked fifth in fantasy points for a wide receiver. His upside is certainly high. Last year saw a more meagre performance from Wallace. He only put up 133 fantasy points. His career averages are not bad, but not spectacular. Over his four years in the NFL he averages 1053 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 153 fantasy points a season. He averages 9.71 fantasy points a game. He is certainly a receiver you would want on your team, but will he be the Mike Wallace who places in the top 10 wide receivers? Two seasons of rankings in the 20-30 ranked wide receivers, and two seasons of top 10 rankings, what will it be this year?

Ryan Tannehill's rookie year was not amazing, but he cemented himself as the clear starter in
Miami. He threw for 3294 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He was the 24th ranked
QB amassing 230 fantasy points. Brian Hartline (Dolphins Receiver and Tannehill's favourite target last year)
said Tannehill's improvement has been amazing. His coaches are very high on his abilities.

Reggie Bush is gone from the Dolphins, Lamar Miller will reportedly be the starting runningback.
It is important for the Dolphins to have an efficient offense in order for Wallace and Tannehill
to have good seasons. I believe that Wallace will have a good year. He should be able to amass the point total that Hartline did last year. He will most likely be Tannehill's number one receiver. It is important for Tannehill to throw more then 12 touchdowns. That number from last year was very low.

Some people are projecting Wallace to be a top five receiver. On the high end he could be, on the low end he will be in the top 20.Wallace is a receiver worth drafting, but I will not be picking him early. I feel like he could be picked too high. Wallace has never had a season in which he caught over 75 balls. Wallace will have at least 160 fantasy points. He could be in the Top 5 and have an amazing season, but I like to think of the low end, not just the high. Depending on how mock drafts over the next few months, I will adjust this article based on his draft position.

Fantasy Football 2013: Danny Amendola

Danny Amendola going to the Patriots is a very interesting off season move. Amendola has shown promise as a receiver, but has faced injury problems in his four NFL seasons. Amendola's number with the Rams are not spectacular, but neither was his quarterback (Sam Bradford).

Amendola averaged 60.54 yards a game last season, and about 6 catches a game. I am not very high on Sam Bradford, the Rams were only ranked 20th in the passing game. I believe a change in teams and quarterback will help Amendola. Amendola will now be with the Patriots, who posses the first ranked passing offense, as well as the first ranked total offense in the NFL. The Patriots have lost Wes Welker, this will certainly leave a gap in the offense that must be filled.

Wes Welker had 118 catches, 1354 yards, and 6 touchdowns. His departure leaves plenty of touches in the offense that must be replaced. Some are speculating that Rob Gronkowski's injuries are numerous and will delay his season start time. Aaron Hernandez is not going to absorb all the touches Welker leaves behind, so Amendola should be able to get the ball a healthy amount of times. If Gronkowski does see less field time. Amendola's touches could increase.

Amendola should be good for at least 1,000 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns, and 100 receptions. That is on the low end. He will be a top twenty receiver this year. There is also a chance he has an amazing year and is a top 5 receiver. He could put up over 180 fantasy points. This all hinges on his health, and how the Patriots offense chooses to distribute the ball this year. I will add to this article closer to the draft. Much of drafting Danny Amendola will depend on where people are drafting him in mock drafts, and how he is ranked and then perceived by drafters. If Amendola stays healthy he could definetly be an impressive piece of your fantasy team, and a number one receiver. 

Fantasy Football 2013: Wes Welker

Wes Welker has went from being a New England Patriot, to being a Denver Bronco. He has left Tom Brady, and will now be catching throws from Peyton Manning. Welker changing teams is one of the interesting moves from the off season.

In the last five years Wes Welker had only had one year with under 1,000 receiving yards. His averages over the last five years are nothing short of amazing. Welker averages 14.30 fantasy points a game. He has never missed more then 2 games in a season. He averages 111 yards a game, and scored a touchdown about every 2 games with an average of .49 touchdowns a game. Clearly Wes Welker is a dominant fantasy force. How will he effect the Denver Broncos and how will his own numbers be affected?


The Denver Broncos had an interesting offense last year. They had a powerful offense. Peyton Manning distributed the ball effectively. He had two favorite targets. Demaryius Thomas who had 28% of the receptions for WR/TE, and 203.8 fantasy points (33% of WR/TE). His other favorite target was Eric Decker who accounted for 25% of WR/TE receptions as well as 29% of the fantasy points with 184.4.  The other significant receivers and tight ends we're Brandon Stokely who had 13% of receptions and 84.4 fantasy points, Jacob Tamme who had 16% of receptions with 67.5 fantasy points, as well as Joel Dreessen who had 12% with 65.6 fantasy points.

Clearly Thomas and Decker are the core of the Denver attack. How will Welker fit in?  I did some number crunching and tried to come up with an estimation of his effect on the teams receiving numbers. Some people have been saying that Welker will hurt Decker's numbers more then Thomas'.  I am not one hundred percent certain who will have the more severe number drop. I am fairly certain that Thomas will amass over 200 fantasy points again.  I believe the maximum any of the trio would be able to produce would be around 185 fantasy points. I believe one of the receivers will be around 180 points, another around 170, and another around 150. These numbers we're found by shaving receptions from Tamme, Dressen, Decker, and Thomas to account for Welker replacing and having a heightened impact compared to Stokely. If Welker had 82 receptions, 916 yards, and 9 touchdowns he would produce 146 fantasy points.

It is hard to predict exactly what Welker's impact will be on the Broncos. However it is clear to me that he will take away some receptions that would have went to Decker, and Thomas. Welker should be able to get at least 140 fantasy points at the low end of the spectrum, 180 points at the high end. Welker getting 140-150 points would see Decker and Thomas achieving 160+ fantasy point years respectively, Welker getting above 170 points would see a serious drop in stats to Decker and/or Thomas. I would draft Wes Welker as one of my fantasy football receivers, I would not draft him in the first two rounds. I will update this post closer to draft time, when mock draft data is available, and his draft position is more defined.

Fantasy Football 2013: Greg Jennings

Greg Jennings is no longer a Green Bay Packer. He has left the Green and Yellow, to don the Purple of the Minnesota Vikings. How will this impact Jennings fantasy value in 2013?

Greg Jennings could have a very productive year in Minnesota. Jennings has always been a favorable target in the red zone. Over the past five years Jennings had been thrown to in the Redzone 71 times, hauled in 41 catches, with 21 of them being touchdowns. Half the time he gets a Redzone reception it is for a touchdown. Jennings can provide the Vikings another option besides Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph.Percy Harvin is no longer a Viking, hopefully Jennings can fill the void.

An important indicator of a receivers skill is yardage. A receiver who consistently puts up yardage will benefit you in fantasy football. He is less likely to blank the board for you. Greg Jennings has impressive career averages. Over the last five years Jennings has averaged 72 yards a game, a touchdown every two games, and an impressive 10.53 fantasy points a game.

I believe Christian Ponder is a decent quarterback. He has a premier running back in Adrian Peterson,  and will benefit from the addition of Jennings. Ponder played well when Harvin was healthy last year, and should return to form with Jennings. My biggest concern is Greg Jennings health. In 2012 he played only 8 games, 2011 he played 13. If Jennings can remain healthy he will be a welcomed addition to your fantasy team. The only drawback is his injuries from the past two seasons. I would still draft him, but not over reach and take him early. I would not draft many wide receivers in the first two rounds, but is covered in my old articles, and will be covered in my 2013 draft strategy.

Rashard Mendenhall To Arizona Cardinals (Fantasy Football 2013)

Rashard Mendenhall has followed former Offensive Co-Ordinator Bruce Arians to the desert. Last season Mendenhall only played in six games.  The two enjoyed success when Arians was in Pittsburgh. How will this signing impact Mendenhall's fantasy value? If you strike out 2008 (4 games, under 100 yards) and 2012 (only 60 total touches) you have three years of healthy Mendenhall data.

Many interesting numbers can be found regarding Rashard Mendenhall based on the 2009,2010, and 2011 seasons. When Mendenhall is healthy he averages 12.1 fantasy points a game, and 189.73 fantasy points for the year. Those are very respectable numbers. Mendenhall could be a viable number two fantasy back, or an excellent flex player if he can replicate those numbers.

The variable in this equation is the team he has arrived on. The Cardinals are my favorite NFL team, but I examine them with no bias. They had a terrible offensive year. The running game was especially poor. All of the Cardinals running backs amassed 169.75 fantasy points for the 2012 season. They averaged out to 9.98 points a game last year. That is ever single running back on the team combined. The Cardinals had a very bad year on offense, facing issues both passing and running the ball.

I believe Mendenhall will be good for 179.74 fantasy points this season. I determined this by averaging Mendenhall's healthy numbers and the Cardinals 2012 rushing statistics. 179.4 fantasy points would rank 13th for the 2012 season. This would place Mendenhall's as the best 2nd level RB in football. 179.74.   Some people may find the 180 point number to be ambitious, but I can guarantee that he will hit 150 points if healthy.  Would I take Mendenhall in the 2nd round of a twelve man draft? No. If I need a 2nd running back or a flex option I would snag him at value. If the Cardinals can shore up their offensive line through the draft or free agency I would consider snagging him at value. He may have a great season.