Offseason

Every fantasy football off season I say the same same thing; that the upcoming season is going to be vastly different than the last. I feel this is especially true this year. LeSean McCoy has went to the Bills, Nick Foles has went to the Rams, Julius Thomas went to Oakland, Torrey Smith to San Francisco, Shane Vereen to the Giants, Jimmy Graham to Seattle and Demarco Murray to Philadelphia.

The best fantasy running back of 2014 has left the Cowboys to go to divisional rival Philadelphia. If Demarco Murray moving to the Eagles doesn't show you there was plenty of change this off season I don't know what will. Many first, second, and third round fantasy players have changed teams.  How will these players number be effected? That is a question I will seek to solve closer to fantasy season.

The snow is melting where I live, the NFL draft is almost upon us, my friends are arguing about last years fantasy season, fantasy football will be upon us in less than six months. I forgot to mention the defensive players who have suddenly retired. Poor 49ers fans. The retirement of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland will no doubt impact IDP leagues. It will be interesting to see how everything pans out. I will be conducting tons of research this off season. I will be posting a draft guide and draft strategies as I have the last few seasons. I hope everyone has been enjoying the fantasy football off season.

2014 Fantasy Season Review

This fantasy football season was full of ups and downs.  I accomplished something that few people have done in competitive fantasy leagues; I won my third Playoff Championship in a row. I did not have remarkable success in all of my leagues.  Both leagues where I possessed the first overall pick saw me not making the playoffs.  I learned many important lessons this fantasy football season. Here is a quick recap of how I performed in each league.

12 Team IDP League

10-3 Regular Season  (13-3 including playoffs)

I finished second in the regular season and won my third playoff championship in a row. I draft incredibly well in this league. The draft is conducted in person. I picked twelfth in the draft.  I come to every draft prepared. I create an Excel Spreadsheet, study scoring systems, then make my picks based off Value Based Drafting principles.  I also benefit from understanding how and when to draft defensive players.  The way in which I draft defensive players is one of the factors that allows me to be so successful.  I understand the scoring system in the league. 5 IDP players are required each week. 3 of any defensive position you want, with 2 players having to be Defensive Back’s.  JJ Watt had 239.96, 1^st among defensive players and 68 points ahead of the 2^nd ranked player. I drafted JJ in the fifth round. Harrison Smith was the best defensive back in terms of fantasy points with 142.50, I took him in the eighth round.

The most important time of the fantasy football season is the draft. If you are in a fantasy league with IDP you need to figure out the leagues scoring system and figure out where to draft defensive players. Plenty of player don’t understand where to draft IDP’s. Only my two quarterbacks, Le'Veon Bell , and Demaryius Thomas scored more points than JJ Watt.  That example should show you the importance of IDP’s. My all time record in this league is 31-8, 40-8 if you include the playoffs. I will admit that other factors played into my success this year. I traded Ahmad Bradshaw for Kelvin Benjamin to shore up my receiving corps while Megatron was hurt, I also chose to abandon Colin Kapernick and picked up Ryan Tannehill off waivers late in the season. My back to back picks of Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas were also extremely important.  I’m hoping to make it four championships in a row next year!

12 Team Flex

5-9 No Playoffs

I had the first pick of the draft and selected LeSean McCoy.  His slow start to the season lost me many games. I had an excellent pick in Le’Veon Bell, he was the second best running back in terms of fantasy points. Multiple things hurt me in this league. My third round pick was Drew Brees who only ended up as the sixth best quarterback. I had hoped for more from Brees. McCoy had an abysmal start to the season. I had a horrible receiving corps. Larry Fitzgerald and Cordarelle Patterson were my starters on opening day…  I did not have good performances from my receivers this year.  It was not my year in this league. If you pick first in the draft and your first pick of the draft does not perform well you are doomed. After picking McCoy I had to wait 23 picks to pick again. Those 23 picks are why I would rather have a later pick. You can get guys who slide in draft position late in the first round.

12 Team Standard

3-10 No Playoffs

I picked first in the draft for the 12 team Standard league.  I once again selected LeSean McCoy.  My other running back was Giovanni Bernard, who I handcuffed by selecting Jeremy Hill.  My biggest mistake was selecting Matthew Stafford in the 5^th round. Stafford ranked as the 15^th best quarterback and was a horrible pick. Selecting Stafford in the 5^th also hindered my receiving corps. My draft day receiving corps was made up of Michael Crabtree, Terrance Williams, and Marques Colston. I lost some close games early in the year. I could have had a few more wins with some luck, but in the end I just did not have a very good team. I told myself never to over draft a marginal fantasy quarterback then I did. This leagues draft was my final draft of the year. I feel as if I made some of my picks in this league based off picks I made in my other leagues. I felt like I wanted a different team than I had in my other leagues. I had the chance to draft Le'Veon Bell but picked Bernard so I would have variety and not have the same back in three leagues. I will not make a mistake like that ever again. You should never have your team in another league influence your decision for a team in a separate league.

I hope everyone enjoyed their respective fantasy football seasons. I will once again be doing a draft guide and posting my draft spreadsheets. I plan to do a ton of research this off season and am hoping to have my best fantasy football year yet. I plan to have a ton of important and useful information on this site to help with next seasons draft. Enjoy the off season everyone! Come here when you start prepping for next seasons draft!

Update

The season has not been very kind to me. My records are as follows:
12 Man IDP Standard- 4-2
12 Man Flex- 3-3
12 Man Standard 1-5

I have not been posting much as I am adjusting to now being a contributing writer for http://www.senshot.com It was an opportunity to write for the Fansided network which has been a blast thus far.

I can not seem to catch a break this year. LeSean McCoy underperformed during some of the early weeks. Matt Stafford has been extremely inconsistent. Many weeks have just simply seen two or more key players fail at the same time. I will not go on to break down my bad luck by displaying my weekly results, scores etc; All I can say is that it has been hard to catch a break in my 12 Man Flex/12 Man Standard league. Hopefully I can sneak into the playoffs in the flex league.

My 12 Man IDP team has seen success. My all time record in this league is actually ridiculous. Including playoffs I am 31-7 all time as of week six of this season. I have a very good roster. I have a plethora of running backs. I have LeVeon Bell, Chris Ivory, Fred Jackson, Trent Richardson, Andre Williams. I had Ahmad Bradshaw but made a trade that greatly benefits my team. I moved Ahmad Bradshaw to acquire Kelvin Benjamin. My receivers are Kelvin Benjamin, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, and Terrance Williams. Benjamin has allowed me to remain strong even after Johnson's injury. I hope to win my third regular season and playoff championship in this league.

I have learned many things throughout this fantasy season. I will use the information I have learned to prepare for next year. Every fantasy season offers new information, new challenges, new trends, new stars. I am going to keep periodically posting on this blog. The information I have learned this year is going to allow me to formulate an excellent draft strategy for next year.

Week 1 Results and Misc Thoughts

I went 3-0 in my leagues Week 1. I am looking to continue rolling Week 2. I will need strong play from my quarterbacks. In my IDP league my defensive players were spectacular.

2014 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet 12 Team Draft Flex

Do you want to win your fantasy football league? Obviously. If you are reading this right now your leagues draft is very close to the beginning of the NFL season. This article will give you the logic behind my cheat sheet, and the actual cheat sheet format I used during my last draft, and plan to use for my next two. My upcoming draft is in a 12 man league which features a flex. The positional requirements are as follows:

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 2 WR
• 1 WR/RB Flex
• 1 TE
• 1 K
• 1 DEF
• 5 Bench

Some features of the leagues scoring system and positional options are:

• Quarterback passing touchdowns are only worth four points instead of six. 

• You can play either an RB or WR in the flex spot. 

I have assembled a cheat sheet that you can use for 12 team drafts featuring a flex. The quarterback scoring on this cheat sheet is based on passing touchdowns being worth four points. I have already drafted in my league which does not have a flex and features IDP for defense. My strategy in non IDP drafts is fairly similar. The only downside for me is that in non IDP drafts less opportunities exist to draft players at ridiculous value. People do not understand IDP as well as team defense, which allows for some ridiculously high value picks.  I am a huge believer in value based drafting (VBD).  I am not sure where I am drafting in this league. Two of my leagues give draft position away before the draft, this one does not. Regardless of my draft spot, I will always attempt to draft players who exceed their peers by the largest margin.

I believe it is ideal to target the best players available. You will most likely see some wild picks in your draft. Capitalize on these mistakes by other managers. Be flexible during your draft, play what the board gives you. Drafting with rigid rules may prevent you from getting players who have high value. Take the players who slide to you in the draft. My top twelve in terms of player value is as follows:

Name	Team	Position	FPP/Week	FPP	Value
Jamaal Charles	KC	RB	16.2375	259.8	138.60
LeSean McCoy	PHI	RB	15.9	254.4	133.20
Matt Forte	CHI	RB	15.10625	241.7	120.50
Adrian Peterson	MIN	RB	14.81875	237.1	115.90
Calvin Johnson	DET	WR	14.35625	229.7	109.00
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	WR	13.7125	219.4	98.70
Eddie Lacy	GB	RB	13.63125	218.1	96.90
Jimmy Graham	NO	TE	12.2125	195.4	94.10
Montee Ball	DEN	RB	12.98125	207.7	86.50
DeMarco Murray	DAL	RB	12.9125	206.6	85.40
Peyton Manning	DEN	QB	22.7125	363.4	82.60
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	RB	12.6625	202.6	81.40

The first twelve picks in my last draft went as follows:

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Matt Forte
5. Eddie Lacy
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. Peyton Manning 
8. Drew Brees
9. Montee Ball
10. Aaron Rodgers
11. Jimmy Graham
12. Calvin Johnson

Did I want to establish a strong running back for my team? Yes. Every fantasy owner does. With the twelfth pick I drafted Calvin Johnson. I sat hoping he would slide to me. Is he a wide receiver? Yes. Is he the 5th best player based off value? Yes. I drafted a wide receiver in the first round, Megatron was a steal. I picked immediately after and I picked another wide receiver. Demaryius Thomas. The sixth best player based off value. After those back to back picks I had to wait a long time to draft again. With my next set of picks (36 and 37) I took Le'Veon Bell and Rob Gronkowski. Le'Veon Bell was my 18th ranked player based on value, Gronk my 33rd. I fleshed out my running game later in the draft. Was I concerned about my running game throughout the draft? Yes. I addressed that need by drafting plenty of running backs: Le'Veon Bell, Bishop Sankey, Trent Richardson, Fred Jackson, and long shot Khiry Robinson. I will play the waiver wire throughout they year to find a diamond in the rough. Not taking a RB in the first allowed me to draft the two best WR's in the draft. I didn't anticipate Calvin Johnson to fall to twelfth, and I certainly did not expect Thomas to fall as well. Playing the board payed off. I was flexible and went with what the board gave me.

My cheat sheet is posted below, and I have also provided a download link. The sheet only includes 112 players. Examine projections, get a list of sleepers, do some additional research. The sheet should give you a a fairly thorough list in which you can base your draft off. You obviously need to draft to fill your positional requirements, but don't feel obligated to fill a position if better players exist elsewhere. Just because one manager takes a mid round tight end does not mean you have to. Take the best player available and get a Tight End later in the draft. Always take the best player available. Good luck!

Name	Team	Position	FPP/Week	FPP	Value
Jamaal Charles	KC	RB	16.2375	259.8	138.60
LeSean McCoy	PHI	RB	15.9	254.4	133.20
Matt Forte	CHI	RB	15.10625	241.7	120.50
Adrian Peterson	MIN	RB	14.81875	237.1	115.90
Calvin Johnson	DET	WR	14.35625	229.7	109.00
Demaryius Thomas	DEN	WR	13.7125	219.4	98.70
Eddie Lacy	GB	RB	13.63125	218.1	96.90
Jimmy Graham	NO	TE	12.2125	195.4	94.10
Montee Ball	DEN	RB	12.98125	207.7	86.50
DeMarco Murray	DAL	RB	12.9125	206.6	85.40
Peyton Manning	DEN	QB	22.7125	363.4	82.60
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	RB	12.6625	202.6	81.40
Julio Jones	ATL	WR	12.55625	200.9	80.20
Dez Bryant	DAL	WR	12.55625	200.9	80.20
Doug Martin	TB	RB	12.4875	199.8	78.60
Giovani Bernard	CIN	RB	12.475	199.6	78.40
A.J. Green	CIN	WR	12.15625	194.5	73.80
Le'Veon Bell	PIT	RB	12.0875	193.4	72.20
Zac Stacy	STL	RB	11.9625	191.4	70.20
Brandon Marshall	CHI	WR	11.85625	189.7	69.00
Alfred Morris	WAS	RB	11.80625	188.9	67.70
Arian Foster	HOU	RB	11.75625	188.1	66.90
Jordy Nelson	GB	WR	11.64375	186.3	65.60
Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	21.6	345.6	64.80
Alshon Jeffery	CHI	WR	11.55	184.8	64.10
Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	11.54375	184.7	64.00
Andre Ellington	ARI	RB	11.29375	180.7	59.50
Toby Gerhart	JAC	RB	11.20625	179.3	58.10
Julius Thomas	DEN	TE	9.8875	158.2	56.90
Seattle		DEF	10.905	174.48	55.50
Drew Brees	NO	QB	21	336	55.20
Randall Cobb	GB	WR	10.8375	173.4	52.70
Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	9.43125	150.9	49.60
Ryan Mathews	SD	RB	10.55	168.8	47.60
Reggie Bush	DET	RB	10.4625	167.4	46.20
Carolina		DEF	10.315	165.04	46.06
Vincent Jackson	TB	WR	10.40625	166.5	45.80
Joique Bell	DET	RB	10.4	166.4	45.20
Frank Gore	SF	RB	10.325	165.2	44.00
Andre Johnson	HOU	WR	10.15	162.4	41.70
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	10.14375	162.3	41.60
Ray Rice	BAL	RB	10.1375	162.2	41.00
Rashad Jennings	NYG	RB	10.08125	161.3	40.10
Shane Vereen	NE	RB	10.05625	160.9	39.70
C.J. Spiller	BUF	RB	10.025	160.4	39.20
Michael Crabtree	SF	WR	9.99375	159.9	39.20
Chris Johnson	NYJ	RB	9.925	158.8	37.60
Keenan Allen	SD	WR	9.71875	155.5	34.80
Ben Tate	CLE	RB	9.71875	155.5	34.30
Cordarrelle Patterson	MIN	WR	9.54375	152.7	32.00
Bishop Sankey	TEN	RB	9.56875	153.1	31.90
Roddy White	ATL	WR	9.50625	152.1	31.40
Michael Floyd	ARI	WR	9.44375	151.1	30.40
Trent Richardson	IND	RB	9.46875	151.5	30.30
Victor Cruz	NYG	WR	9.4375	151	30.30
Vernon Davis	SF	TE	8.20625	131.3	30.00
Pierre Garcon	WAS	WR	9.35625	149.7	29.00
Stevan Ridley	NE	RB	9.29375	148.7	27.50
St.Louis		DEF	9.1525	146.44	27.46
Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	WR	9.1625	146.6	25.90
KC		DEF	9.05	144.8	25.82
Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	19.1125	305.8	25.00
Percy Harvin	SEA	WR	8.98125	143.7	23.00
Torrey Smith	BAL	WR	8.98125	143.7	23.00
Jason Witten	DAL	TE	7.75625	124.1	22.80
Cincinnatti		DEF	8.83	141.28	22.30
Jordan Cameron	CLE	TE	7.6875	123	21.70
Andrew Luck	IND	QB	18.9	302.4	21.60
DeSean Jackson	WAS	WR	8.8125	141	20.30
Dennis Pitta	BAL	TE	7.5875	121.4	20.10
Nick Foles	PHI	QB	18.65	298.4	17.60
Marques Colston	NO	WR	8.61875	137.9	17.20
Julian Edelman	NE	WR	8.49375	135.9	15.20
Ty Hilton	IND	WR	8.4625	135.4	14.70
Maurice Jones-Drew	OAK	RB	8.4875	135.8	14.60
Golden Tate	DET	WR	8.45	135.2	14.50
Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	7.20625	115.3	14.00
Mike Wallace	MIA	WR	8.40625	134.5	13.80
Arizona		DEF	8.248125	131.97	12.99
Jeremy Maclin	PHI	WR	8.31875	133.1	12.40
Fred Jackson	BUF	RB	8.34375	133.5	12.30
Colin Kaepernick	SF	QB	18.3125	293	12.20
Kendall Wright	TEN	WR	8.2875	132.6	11.90
Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	7.05	112.8	11.50
Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	7.00625	112.1	10.80
New England		DEF	8.108125	129.73	10.75
TB		DEF	8.06125	128.98	10.00
Pierre Thomas	NO	RB	8.175	130.8	9.60
Steven Jackson	ATL	RB	8.14375	130.3	9.10
Terrance Williams	DAL	WR	8.1125	129.8	9.10
Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	18.11875	289.9	9.10
Cleveland		DEF	7.886875	126.19	7.21
Knowshon Moreno	MIA	RB	7.975	127.6	6.40
Eric Decker	NYJ	WR	7.86875	125.9	5.20
Tom Brady	NE	QB	17.8625	285.8	5.00
Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	6.60625	105.7	4.40
Denver		DEF	7.64625	122.34	3.36
Reggie Wayne	IND	WR	7.75	124	3.30
Chicago		DEF	7.528125	120.45	1.47
Danny Woodhead	SD	RB	7.64375	122.3	1.10
Sammy Watkins	BUF	WR	7.59375	121.5	0.80
Robert Griffin III	WAS	QB	17.59375	281.5	0.70
Tony Romo	DAL	QB	17.575	281.2	0.40
GB		DEF	7.43625	118.98	0.00
Cam Newton	CAR	QB	17.55	280.8	0.00
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	RB	7.575	121.2	0.00
Martellus Bennett	CHI	TE	6.33125	101.3	0.00
Terrance West	CLE	RB	7.51875	120.3	-0.90
Wes Welker	DEN	WR	7.35	117.6	-1.38
Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	WR	7.4	118.4	-2.30
Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	17.39375	278.3	-2.50
Jay Cutler	CHI	QB	17.025	272.4	-8.40

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