Tebow to Jets/Manning to Broncos

With Peyton Manning signing to the Denver Broncos, the Broncos have sent Tim Tebow to the New York Jets. Elway must have really made an impression on Peyton. The Broncos did make the playoffs last  year, but so did the 49ers. The Titans and 49ers were allegedly the other front runners for Manning. It is kind of puzzling that he did not go to the 13-3 Niners, or even the 9-7 Titans. Manning is especially loved in Tennessee! He played college ball at the University of Tennessee. Whatever the reasoning, it should be interesting to see how he fares in Denver. Tebow going to the Jets is very surprising. They do have Tony Sparano who loves the Wildcat offense and will most likely utilize Tebow. However, it is weird due to the recent contract extension of Mark Sanchez. It should be a very interesting season!

Where would Peyton Manning be most beneficial?

The main suitors of Peyton Manning are currently Arizona, Denver, Tennessee and Miami. I have recently read the book Mathletics by Wayne Winston. I highly recommend it as it has a been great read thus far. Using the information he provided on predicting winning percentage, I tried to use the information to see what an average year of Peyton Manning's performance could offer to all 32 NFL teams. This was done by substituting Peyton Manning's average passing production for that of the teams passing attack for the year. This was done projecting Manning to throw 31 touchdowns, or accumulating 186 points. Extra points were also changed to reflect the new passing totals. Examining the information (all from last season) I came to several conclusions. By my calculations Manning would have improved any team he played on except for the Packers, Lions, Patriots, Cowboys and Saints. This is due to the exceptional numbers put up by those respective teams passing attacks. 

1- Horrible Passing Teams could use Manning

The Rams, Chief, Colts, and Browns all had under 20 passing touchdowns. Manning helped raise these teams predicted winning percentage by the highest amount.  Manning increased the Rams chances of winning by 21%, the Browns by 19%, Colts 16%, and the Chiefs by 16%.  Manning playing would result in severe increases to these teams predicted winning percentage. This is due to the anemic passing offenses the mentioned teams displayed.

The chart above shows how many additional wins Peyton Manning could have contributed to the previously mentioned teams.  However even with the addition of Manning and his amazing contribution to the passing offense, these teams would be better then before, but still not superb.  In fact the Browns would likely finish 8-8, with the Chiefs finishing 7-9 or 8-8, while the Rams and Colt's would both end up at 6-10. Although Manning would be a great asset to these teams, the Chiefs and Browns would benefit from him more then Rams or Colts. The Rams and Colts both gave up over 400 points of offense to opponents. The Rams giving up 407 points,  and the Colts 430 points. While the Chiefs gave up 338 points , and the Browns 337 points. The Browns and Chiefs have better defense, and therefore could win more games by not solely having to rely on Peyton Manning and the offense putting up huge amounts of points to win games.

2-The teams in the hunt for Manning are contenders

There are many similarities when examining the teams that have been in the hunt for Peyton Manning.  The teams who have been the most legitimate in interest and possibly being able to sign him have been the Cardinals, Dolphins, Titans, and Broncos. Examining last years actual win totals, the Cardinals, Titans, Broncos, and Dolphins all have similar records,  Cardinals and Broncos at 8-8, Dolphins at 6-10, and the Titans at 9-7. None of these teams are the worst in the league, but none are exceptionally dominant.  The teams had different levels of defense with the Cardinals giving up 348 points, Broncos 390 points, Titans 317 points, and Dolphins 314 points. Clearly the teams can play defense better then the Rams and Colts.  Below is the impact Peyton Manning could have on these teams through predicted winning percentage.

 

All of the teams were within 1% of each other when it came to how much Manning could improve their winning percentage. Each team would receive around a 10 percent increase in winning percentage with the inclusion of Peyton Manning.  Every team except the Bronco's would be .500% in predicted winning for the year based on the addition of Manning. Every team obviously received an increase in points scored from the inclusion of Manning. Is it wrong to visualize Manning completing passes to Larry Fitzgerald having a significant impact on the Cardinals likelihood to win?  Would the Bronco's make a bigger impact in their division with Manning then Tebow? How would Manning utilize Reggie Bush? Would Ken Britt and Manning be a dynamic combination?

3- The addition of Peyton Manning results in possible playoff berths

Manning offers the teams in contention a chance at achieving wins they otherwise would not have achieved.  Below is a chart illustrating how many extra games Manning would allow the teams seriously in contention for him to win.

 Manning would allow each of these teams at least 1 extra win on the year.

It is very possible he could lead any of the teams to 2 wins. In my data I found that Manning would bring the most wins to other teams. This data is display below.

 Manning would bring the most wins to the Steelers, Browns, Chiefs and Rams. Manning would bring at least three extra wins to these teams. However, none of these teams are in the hunt for him. The Steelers are the only team on the list who has a predicted winning percentage high enough to likely make the playoffs, while the other teams even with the additional wins from Manning would still be struggling teams. The Steelers would in theory go up from a .540% predicted winning percentage without Manning to a .780 percentage with him. While none of the other teams would break the .500% mark. 

The charts above show the difference in wins Manning could bring to a team. While the amount of wins gained for the teams contending for him  is smaller there are also in some ways worth more. 

With the addition of Manning to the offense, the Cardinals would have a 9-7 record, the Broncos would go 8-8, Titans would go 10-6, and the Dolphins would go 10-6. Peyton Manning increases these teams winning percentages by a small amount. He would raise there percentage by around .10 points, and adds around 2 predicted wins for the year. However football is an extremely short season. Only sixteen regular seasons games. The games he could help these teams wins are the difference between making the playoffs and not playing football come January.As summarized above, the teams after Manning are teams trying to contend. The Dolphins, Broncos, Cardinals and Dolphins all have some seriously good pieces to their respective football teams. However, they believe that having Peyton Manning could be a solution to a quarterbacking issue, I like to believe their right. As a Cards fan I hope he ends up in the desert and saves us like Warner did, however I really just hope he can play and be healthy wherever he goes.