I have many big plans for this website. I plan to learn elements of computer programming in order to utilize my calculations to project stats for next season. I want to analyze teams, trends, scoring, and other elements of fantasy football. I also plan to launch a weekly fantasy show next year, and will have a partner contributing to this site.
My fantasy football season has had many ups and downs. I gambled and drafted Lamar Miller in my 12 man league. I bought into his hype being spewed out by other fantasy football writers. I have no regrets. If he had panned out I would have had three starting running backs. In my twelve man league I am 7-7. Playing in the consolation playoffs (4 teams made the playoffs, 4 teams made the consolation playoffs) to attempt to win the prize of not paying a league fee.
My ten man league has seen me completely dominate. I finished the season 12-1. The league is absurd. 8 make the playoffs out of ten. I have advanced onto the finals and hope to repeat as season and playoff champion. My defensive players (IDP league) have performed well. My first three picks of Doug Martin, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant worked out even with Martin getting a season ending injury.
I am 108-110 in picking against the spread for the year. I sit in 5th place, I am six wins away from first place with two weeks left in the season. I will have to pick very well in order to land in first place.
I hope that the fantasy year was kind to anyone who checked out this blog. I plan to have an improved draft strategy, and some really amazing content for everyone next year.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Week 11 Waiver Pick Up
November is flying by! The eleventh week of the NFL season is upon us. The pool of players available for
waiver pick is barren (unless you are in a sub 10 team league). If you are
looking for a player off waivers, you will have few quality
options. Most of the stellar players not drafted have either already been picked up, or ended up fizzling out (yes I was on the Edelman band wagon early in the year).
Riley Cooper
Riley Cooper
He is currently owned in 51% of Yahoo! leagues, he should be owned in all. It is quite possible he is already owned in twelve team leagues and higher. Last week I advised fantasy owners to
pick up Riley Cooper off waivers. Those who followed the advice
we're rewarded with a huge performance against the Packers. Cooper
scored two touchdowns, and had a total of 102 receiving yards. Nick
Foles and Riley Cooper have amazing chemistry, and the duo has proved
they we're not one week wonders. He has amassed 55.90 fantasy points
over the last two weeks, and has cemented himself as a legitimate
fantasy receiver for the remainder of the year. I like that the
numbers we're attained in games where the Eagles we're not playing catch up. The success came in a 27-13 win over Green
Bay, and Nick Foles record tying day, a seven touchdown performance
in a 49-20 win over the Raiders. This proves that Foles throws to Cooper even when the Eagles have a lead, which is a good sign.
Jerricho Cotchery
If you are looking for a fill in for Dallas' bye week, I would suggest Jerricho Cotchery. He is only owned in 14% of Yahoo! leagues. He has a respectable 82 fantasy points on the year. He has reached the endzone six times this year, four times in the last two weeks. Some would call his surge of touchdowns flukey, I say it shows that Ben Roethlisberger throws him the ball in the red zone. There are worse players to take a chance on then Jericho Cotchery in Week 1. He has had 36.7 points over the past two weeks, if he stays hot he could benefit your team. The Steelers will be playing Detroit, who do give up a fair amount of points to wide receivers. Hopefully Big Ben continues to get him the ball in the red zone.
Thursday, November 07, 2013
Week 10 Pool Picks
I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I
plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are
picking, it should be interesting.
.
.
Spread Pool Picks
Last
week I went 6 for 13. I
currently sit in 5th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em
League. My record is 66-65. Here are my picks for Week 10.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Week 8 Pool Picks
I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I
plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are
picking, it should be interesting.
.
.
Spread Pool Picks
Last
week I went 7 and 8. I
currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em
League. My record is 52-53. Here are my picks for Week 8. It looks weird that I am going all favorites, however I think those teams have the best chance of winning/covering the points .
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Week 7 Pool Picks
I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I
plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are
picking, it should be interesting.
.
.
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 5 for 10. I
currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em
League. My record is 45-45. Here are my picks for Week 7. It was a rough week. I am still close to the leader, but I hope to have a good week and make up some ground.
Wednesday, October 09, 2013
Week 6 Pool Picks
I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I
plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are
picking, it should be interesting.
Suicide Pool Pick
Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.
I won the 2nd week picking New England over the New York Jets
I won the 3rd week taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams
I won last week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
I lost last Week picking the Falcons to beat the Jets and am out of the Suicide Pool.
I won last week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
I lost last Week picking the Falcons to beat the Jets and am out of the Suicide Pool.
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 8 for 14. I
currently sit in 2nd place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em
League. My record is 40-35. (2 points behind the leader). Here are my picks for Week 6.
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
Week 5 Pool Picks
I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I
plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are
picking, it should be interesting. I am also in a suicide pool. The
suicide pool is straight up, no spread.
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 10 for 15. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 32-29. (1 point behind the leader). Here are my picks for Week 5.
Suicide Pool Pick
Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.
I won the 2nd week picking New England over the New York Jets
I won the 3rd week taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams
I last week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
This week I am taking the Atlanta Falcons over the New York Jets
I last week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
This week I am taking the Atlanta Falcons over the New York Jets
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 10 for 15. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 32-29. (1 point behind the leader). Here are my picks for Week 5.
*I changed my pick to Green Bay when I found out Calvin Johnson was injured, and switched to Jacksonville pre-game.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Week 4 Pool Picks
I am currently in a pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I
plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 33 other guys are
picking, it should be interesting. I am also in a suicide pool. The
suicide pool is straight up, no spread.
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 8 for 8. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 22-25. Here are my picks for Week 4.
Suicide Pool Pick
Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.
I won the 2nd week picking New England over the New York Jets
I won the 3rd week taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams
This week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
This week taking San Fransisco 49ers over the St.Louis Rams
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 8 for 8. I currently sit in 6th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 22-25. Here are my picks for Week 4.
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Week 3 Pool Picks
Suicide Pool Pick
Won 1st week picking the Colts over the Raiders.
I won the last week picking New England over the New York Jets
This week I am taking Dallas over the St.Louis Rams
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 7 for 9. I currently sit in 14th place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. My record is 14-17. I am looking for a huge week this week. Here are my picks for Week 3.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Week 2 Pool Picks
I am currently in a Pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I
plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 34 other guys are
picking, it should be interesting. I am also in a suicide pool. The
suicide pool is straight up, no spread.
Suicide Pool Pick
Won last week picking the Colts over the Raiders.
This week I pick New England over the New York Jets
This week I pick New England over the New York Jets
Spread Pool Picks
Last week I went 7 for 8. Some teams did not cover, and I had a push. I currently sit in sixth place out of thirty three teams in my Pick'Em League. Here are my picks for Week 2.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Week 2 Waiver Pick Ups Fantasy Football 2013
The first week of the NFL season was extremely exciting! Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards and 7 touchdowns, as the Broncos beat the Ravens. Reggie Bush had 191 total yards, in a victory over the Vikings (which also saw an eighty yard Adrian Peterson run). The Packers and 49ers faced off, the Patriots had a close game against the Bills, and a Lavonte David penalty cost the Buccaneers their game against the Jets. The NFL action from the weekend has given us our first week of actual statistics, we are no longer dealing with just projections. Offense and defenses have given us a taste of their potential and tendencies. The following are some suggestions as to who should be picked up on waivers. I believe these players can help your fantasy team.
RB:Joique Bell (If you own Reggie Bush)
After my fantasy leagues draft I dropped Johnathan Dwyer (who was cut by the Steelers). I immediately picked up Joique Bell. The Lions utilized him well last year. Last year saw Bell gain 899 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Week 1 saw the Lions utilize both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell effectively. They both produced over 20 fantasy points in week 1. If you are in a league with a flex and already own Bush, putting Bell in your flex spot is a great idea. In my twelve man league my options are Lance Moore, Michael Floyd, or Joique Bell in my flex spot. I'm going to use Bell until he gives me a reason not to. If the Lions offense continues to flourish, they should both see touches in both the running and passing game. I'm hoping Reggie Bush can stay healthy, but his injuries in the past give Bell and even larger upside. If you pick up Bell, and Bush goes down, you still have Bell.
TE:Julius Thomas (If you are lacking a decent Tight End)
He is Peyton Manning's tight end! If you do not have confidence in your tight end pick him up. I am not saying he will get 110 yards, and 2 touchdowns every week, however he has a ton of potential for big weeks. His week one numbers occurred during Manning's spectacular 7 touchdown game. Tight end's with good quarterbacks generally succeed, especially tight ends with the athleticism of Thomas, he is worth a pick up.
WR: Julian Edelman (If you need a Wide Receiver)
Edelman had a solid week one. He produced 19.90 fantasy points. Tom Brady has chemistry with Edelman, and Edelman was actually starting over Wes Welker last year, until he was injured. He is in a high power offense, with an amazing quarterback.
Waiver Pick Ups
RB:Joique Bell (If you own Reggie Bush)
After my fantasy leagues draft I dropped Johnathan Dwyer (who was cut by the Steelers). I immediately picked up Joique Bell. The Lions utilized him well last year. Last year saw Bell gain 899 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Week 1 saw the Lions utilize both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell effectively. They both produced over 20 fantasy points in week 1. If you are in a league with a flex and already own Bush, putting Bell in your flex spot is a great idea. In my twelve man league my options are Lance Moore, Michael Floyd, or Joique Bell in my flex spot. I'm going to use Bell until he gives me a reason not to. If the Lions offense continues to flourish, they should both see touches in both the running and passing game. I'm hoping Reggie Bush can stay healthy, but his injuries in the past give Bell and even larger upside. If you pick up Bell, and Bush goes down, you still have Bell.
TE:Julius Thomas (If you are lacking a decent Tight End)
He is Peyton Manning's tight end! If you do not have confidence in your tight end pick him up. I am not saying he will get 110 yards, and 2 touchdowns every week, however he has a ton of potential for big weeks. His week one numbers occurred during Manning's spectacular 7 touchdown game. Tight end's with good quarterbacks generally succeed, especially tight ends with the athleticism of Thomas, he is worth a pick up.
WR: Julian Edelman (If you need a Wide Receiver)
Edelman had a solid week one. He produced 19.90 fantasy points. Tom Brady has chemistry with Edelman, and Edelman was actually starting over Wes Welker last year, until he was injured. He is in a high power offense, with an amazing quarterback.
Friday, September 06, 2013
Week 1 Pool Picks
I am currently in a Pool where you pick winners based on the spread. I plan to post about my progress throughout the year. 34 other guys are picking, it should be interesting. I am also in a suicide pool. The suicide pool is straight up, no spread.
Suicide Pool Pick
Indianapolis Colts beating the Oakland Raiders
Spread Pool Picks
Denver over Baltimore by 7.5
New England over Buffalo by 9.5
Chicago over Cincinnati by 3
Miami over Cleveland
Detroit over Minnesota by 5
Indianapolis over Oakland by 9.5
Atlanta over New Orleans +3
Tampa over New York Jets by 3.5
Pittsburgh over Tennessee by 7
Seattle over Carolina by 3.5
Kansas City over Jacksonville by 4
Arizona over St.Louis +4.5
Green Bay over San Francisco +4.5
Dallas over New York Giants by 3.5
Washington over Philadelphia by 3.5
Houston over San Diego by 4
Thursday, August 22, 2013
First Round Drafting: 2013
Are you unsure of who to draft in the first round? Do you seek guidance in your Fantasy Football quest? Do you yearn to know which gridiron warrior can lead you to glory? The answers to these questions follow. I outline who I believe you should pick from each draft spot in the first round. I am using a 12 team league for this analysis. I believe most owners should take a running back in the first round. Running backs are the position that have the least amount of depth. It does not matter whether you are playing in a standard league with three wide receivers, or a league with a flex. The difference between having a Top 12 Running Back and a lower tier running back is enormous. I use this example from last year.
| 12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson | 24th Ranked RB: Willis McGahee | Point Difference |
| 182.9 | 119.2 | 63.7 |
If you compare Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson the jump from the best running back in the league to the 12th is even greater.
| 1st Ranked RB: Adrian Peterson | 12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson | Point Difference |
| 309.4 | 182.9 | 126.5 |
I attempt to draft without personal bias and to get the best draft results you should as well. The example above displays the importance of drafting an elite running back. As the draft continues on I believe it is important to draft elite players. You do not necessarily have to draft back to back running backs. All you have to do is draft the player who will out perform his peers. My draft strategy is assembled after doing some number crunching, examining previous year stats, and examining the upcoming years projections. This guide however is not a thesis on my fantasy football beliefs but a quick guide on who I believe should be taken in the first round.
1st PICK
Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson is an amazing running back. Many players who had an early draft pick last year opted for another running back. His draft stock dropped last year due to his recovery from a ACL and MCL tear. A.P showed the entire football world that he was back and better then ever. He fell just nine yards shy of breaking the single season rushing record rushing with 2,097 yards. He put up an amazing 309.40 fantasy points. The next best running back was short of A.P's fantasy point production by 44.8 points. The running back position has the highest fall off from elite to average. One key element of my draft strategy is to have an elite running back. Running backs are a commodity that flies off the draft board. I believe Peterson is the best running back or player you can take in the first draft spot. He has emerged as the best running back in football. He has not let a serious injury hamper his career, lead the NFL in rushing last year, led all RBs in fantasy points, and should have another amazing year. He is aptly nicknames all day, and if you pick him first he may lead you all the way to a championship.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 269.91 | 279 | 272.4 | 309.4 |
Above Sites
2ND PICK
Doug Martin
Doug Martin had an impressive rookie campaign. He amassed 264.6 fantasy points. Arian Foster edged him by a very small margin of fantasy points. Foster beat him by .2 of a point. Martin made a huge impact last year, and is clearly the number one running back in the Tampa Bay offense. He has Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks healthy which will help the Buccaneers offensive line. Martin should be able to put up great numbers this year, and the sites I have referenced have him ranked in the Top 5 for projected running back fantasy points. While Peterson was my definite number one pick, I had more difficulty deciding who should be taken with the 2nd pick. Doug Martin and the Buccaneers have the 3rd easiest schedule for running backs, while Arian Foster and the Texans have the 4th. What puts Martin ahead of Arian Foster on my draft board is the lack of any injuries clouding his potential output for the season.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 237.08 | 226 | 247.2 | 264.6 |
Above Sites
3rd PICK
C.J. Spiller
Spiller has cemented himself as the number on back in Buffalo. Spiller managed to put up 218.3 fantasy points last year. He did this with only 250 touches. His touches should go up this year, which will result in even more fantasy points for the 4th year back. As a team, Buffalo is in weird spot. They have not enjoyed success in recent years. E.J. Manuel, Kevin Kolb, and Jeff Tuel are the three quarterbacks taking snaps for the Bills. E.J. Manuel just hurt his knee, Kolb has been a bust in years past, Tuel is an undrafted rookie. Buffalo will have to rely on Spiller in order to win games. Expect big things from Spiller this year.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 234.85 | 227 | 237.6 | 218.3 |
Above Sites
4th PICK
Arian Foster
Arian Foster has scored over 250 fantasy points yearly, for the past three seasons. He is currently dealing with a back problem, and he will be missing all of the preseason. He claims he will be ready for the regular season. I would believe the man, and not let the injuries deter you from drafting Arian Foster. He has
consistently performed over the past few seasons, and has made big impacts for the fantasy owners lucky enough to draft him. Foster get the ball constantly. In 2010 he had 393 touches, in 2011 he had 331, last year he had 391. A player getting the ball frequently gives him more opportunities to amass fantasy points. He is similar to Adrian Peterson in respect to the fact that he is one of the few elite running backs who can exceed 230 fantasy points, and has done so for the past three years.I would take Arian Foster higher but his current injury dropped him two spots. With your first pick in the draft you ideally want a player who is going into the season healthy, and who you believe will be playing all year. While Foster is not playing in the preseason, I believe he will have a great season. I would rather take a chance on Foster producing big numbers then draft any of the other running backs slotted after him on my draft board.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 255.82 | 261 | 221.9 | 264.8 |
Above Sites
5th PICK
Marshawn Lynch
Lynch had an excellent year in 2012. He had 250.6 fantasy points. I believe that this kind of performance is repeatable. Some people are projecting Lynch to not repeat these numbers, I believe he will. The Seahawks finished 3rd in Rushing Yards, and 9th in total points. Russel Wilson's success at quarterback will not hinder Lynch, it will help him. The more Seattle's offense clicks the more yards and touchdowns Lynch can gain. In 2012 the Seahawks had two games where they absolutely annihilated their opponents. In those two games Lynch still put up remarkable numbers with limited opportunities. When they beat the Cardinals 58-0, he had 11 attempts, 30.8 fantasy points. When they beat the Bills 50-17 he had 10 attempts, 18.7 fantasy points. Lynch gets his numbers in blow outs, close games, any game. I believe his success will continue.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 212.33 | 233 | 224.3 | 250.6 |
Above Sites
6th PICK
Ray Rice
Ray Rice is sliding in many fantasy football Mock Drafts. I believe he still has what it takes to be a Top 5 running back. Rice scored 296.8 fantasy points two years ago, 222.1 last year. Analysts are curious if the emergence of Bernard Pierce will damage Rice's output. I do not think it will be significant enough to stop me from picking him. Baltimore has lost Dennis Pita to injury, Anquan Boldin to the 49ers, and do not have the most amazing WRs in the league. Ray Rice could see more receptions this year, and I believe will exceed the 222 fantasy points he put up last year. Hey, diddle diddle, Ray Rice up the middle!
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 203.58 | 232 | 225.0 | 221.1 |
Above Sites
7th PICK
Alfred Morris
Alfred Morris had an amazing rookie year. He entered the season as a sixth round draft pick and emerged as the NFL's second leading rusher. He finished 5th in fantasy points for a running back with 246.3. His main knock would be he only had eleven receptions for 77 yards with zero touchdowns. Although he is not a receiving threat, he is an amazing running back to have on your fantasy squad. He rushed for 1606 yards. He is a vicious runner and plays in an dynamic offense with RG III. Draft him if you have the chance!
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 206.16 | 219 | 232.2 | 246.3 |
Above Sites
8th PICK
Calvin Johnson
Calvin Johnson is coming off a record breaking season. He hauled in 122 catches for 1,964 yards. He only scored five touchdowns and still managed to put up 226.4 fantasy points. My philosophy is to make sure I have an elite running back while drafting. Calvin Johnson is the only wide receiver who I would take in the first round. I believe taking Calvin Johnson in the 8th spot is worth doing. He will pull in numbers that warrant his drafting. Having Calvin Johnson is the safest bet you can have for production at the wide receiver position. If you draft him here you must make sure you shore up your running game in the upcoming rounds.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 211.10 | 236 | 234.5 | 220.4 |
Above Sites
9th PICK
LeSean McCoy
LeSean McCoy has had some huge fantasy years. In 2011 he had 1,309 rushing yards, 17 rushing touchdowns, 315 receive yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. He gained 282.4 fantasy yards. He missed games last year due to a concussion, and the Eagles had a dreadful year. The Eagles now have a new coach, and McCoy could deliver an excellent fantasy year. He managed 151.3 points in 12 games, that equates to 12.58 fantasy points a game. The Eagles will utilize McCoy under Chip Kelly and if you can draft him as late as ninth do it!
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 218.38 | 200 | 223.1 | 151.3 |
Above Sites
10th PICK
Trent Richardson
Richardson had a solid rookie campaign. He rushed for 957 yards, 11 touchdowns, and earned 203 fantasy points. He is clearly the number one running back for the Browns. He should get plenty of touches this year, he is a threat running and catching the ball. Last year he rushed 267 times, and hauled in 51 catches on 70 targets. Richardson battled injuries and saw limited touches early last year, he also missed the entire preseason. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. If the Browns can stay in games and muster any sort of offense he should exceed his numbers from last year by a large amount.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 223.03 | 226 | 213.5 | 203.7 |
Above Sites
11th PICK
Jamaal Charles
Jamaal Charles finished with 210.9 fantasy points last year, finishing eighth in fatasy points for running backs. Two years ago he suffered an ACL tear in week two and missed the remainder of the season. Charles was able to return strong, and although he was distant from his 241.5 fantasy points he achieved in 2010, he still had a productive year. His issue holding back his fantasy point scoring is a lack of touchdowns. He is a threat both rushing and catching the ball, and could have a very productive year. Andy Reid is the new coach in KC, and Alex Smith is the new quarterback. Both of these factors could lead in an increase in Charles' numbers.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 229.06 | 228 | 222.1 | 210.9 |
Above Sites
12th PICK
Matt Forte
Matt Forte's forte is not scoring touchdowns. However he does put up a respectable amount of fantasy points. Forte put up five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown last year. If he scored more touchdowns he could be a true fantasy beast. He 1,094 yards rushing and 340 yards receiving. Hopefully new Bears Co-Ordinator Marc Tressman utilizes Forte, and he amasses more fantasy points. Forte is a solid pick at the end of the first round. He could deliver over 200 fantasy points and at the low end should deliver 170.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 209.67 | 182 | 196.8 | 179.4 |
Above Sites
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Why I Love Fantasy Football
I am not a gun slinging Quarterback, I am not a shut down Corner Back, I am not a sure handed Wide Receiver, I am not a key piece on the Offensive Line, I am not a professional football player in any way shape or form. The only football player I bear any physical comparison to is Brandon Banks (5 foot 7, 155 pounds)
I am not happy at my current job, it is under whelming, it is not stimulating, the pay is terrible. Fantasy Football provides a welcoming distraction to the day to day grind. Not every football fan has the ability to go out and play football, most people will never obtain the money to own a football team, and not every person you know happens to be a general manager or even an employee with a professional sports team.
Fantasy Football allows you to own and manage your own team. Fantasy Football leagues are fun! You can play for free, you can play in paid leagues on the internet, or you can have a league with prizes with your friends. Last season I was in two leagues, I managed my team The Funs to a regular season championship, and post season title! My other team won the constellation playoffs and I did not end up having to pay a league fee (a great constellation prize).
Fantasy Football can make you a bit crazy at times. It can make you cheer for players you never thought you would. Last year I ended up cheering on Ike Taylor. A corner back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I had a small lead on my opponent and needed Tory Smith to not produce points as he had in previous weeks. It was the Monday Night Football game. I watched the Steelers and Ravens duke it out and was overjoyed when Torrey Smith did not produce enough points for my opponent to win. Ike Taylor was my main man that night, shutting down Torrey Smith.
The Fantasy Football season is tough, just like the regular NFL season.Your team will battle injuries, you will often face key personnel decisions leading up to the game. "Do I start Joe Flacco, or Tony Romo?" You will be kicking yourself when you make a wrong decision, you will be over joyed when you make the right decision leading up to a game. Last year my friend picked up Danny Woodhead when he had one of his biggest weeks of the season!
Fantasy Football lets armchair Quarterbacks around the world have fun. It lets aspiring GM's, super fans, and dreamers the chance to manage their own squad. The draft is one of the most fun parts of the season. It is where you pick your squad. You can elect to pick your favorite players or players you like. Many people do this. I have many friends who pick with personal bias. If that is how you want to play that is fine! I choose to pick players based off their stats. I study the numbers, try to crunch them, I try to spot tendencies, trends, and find value every step through the draft. That is what this blog is dedicated towards. This blog is my attempt at formulating winning fantasy football strategy. My draft strategy is not based on hoping guys will have good years, or the fact that some guys play on teams I like. My strategies are based on where there is value in drafting, where you can pick guys who have dropped in the draft, the low end and the high end, and other elements based on the numbers.
Hopefully the articles on this site can aide you in some way, and hopefully you enjoy the 2013 Fantasy Football Season! Good luck!
-Travis
I am not happy at my current job, it is under whelming, it is not stimulating, the pay is terrible. Fantasy Football provides a welcoming distraction to the day to day grind. Not every football fan has the ability to go out and play football, most people will never obtain the money to own a football team, and not every person you know happens to be a general manager or even an employee with a professional sports team.
Fantasy Football allows you to own and manage your own team. Fantasy Football leagues are fun! You can play for free, you can play in paid leagues on the internet, or you can have a league with prizes with your friends. Last season I was in two leagues, I managed my team The Funs to a regular season championship, and post season title! My other team won the constellation playoffs and I did not end up having to pay a league fee (a great constellation prize).
Fantasy Football can make you a bit crazy at times. It can make you cheer for players you never thought you would. Last year I ended up cheering on Ike Taylor. A corner back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I had a small lead on my opponent and needed Tory Smith to not produce points as he had in previous weeks. It was the Monday Night Football game. I watched the Steelers and Ravens duke it out and was overjoyed when Torrey Smith did not produce enough points for my opponent to win. Ike Taylor was my main man that night, shutting down Torrey Smith.
The Fantasy Football season is tough, just like the regular NFL season.Your team will battle injuries, you will often face key personnel decisions leading up to the game. "Do I start Joe Flacco, or Tony Romo?" You will be kicking yourself when you make a wrong decision, you will be over joyed when you make the right decision leading up to a game. Last year my friend picked up Danny Woodhead when he had one of his biggest weeks of the season!
Fantasy Football lets armchair Quarterbacks around the world have fun. It lets aspiring GM's, super fans, and dreamers the chance to manage their own squad. The draft is one of the most fun parts of the season. It is where you pick your squad. You can elect to pick your favorite players or players you like. Many people do this. I have many friends who pick with personal bias. If that is how you want to play that is fine! I choose to pick players based off their stats. I study the numbers, try to crunch them, I try to spot tendencies, trends, and find value every step through the draft. That is what this blog is dedicated towards. This blog is my attempt at formulating winning fantasy football strategy. My draft strategy is not based on hoping guys will have good years, or the fact that some guys play on teams I like. My strategies are based on where there is value in drafting, where you can pick guys who have dropped in the draft, the low end and the high end, and other elements based on the numbers.
Hopefully the articles on this site can aide you in some way, and hopefully you enjoy the 2013 Fantasy Football Season! Good luck!
-Travis
Fantasy Football 2013
READ MY UPDATED 2014 GUIDE
The draft in this years Fantasy Football season is shaping up to be significantly different then last years. It is important to note the differences in order to have a successful fantasy year. I have had to analyze numbers and change elements of my draft strategy.
Quarterbacks were being drafted much earlier last year. The chart below shows the difference in what positions were drafted early in the draft, comparing this years mocks and last years drafts. We use 12 team drafts for this example. (Using ADP Data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com )
Rob Gronkowski 154
Quarterbacks were being drafted much earlier last year. The chart below shows the difference in what positions were drafted early in the draft, comparing this years mocks and last years drafts. We use 12 team drafts for this example. (Using ADP Data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com )
In 2011 the passing yards and Fantasy Points produced by Quarterbacks were very high. The Top 5 QB's averaged 383.68 Fantasy Points. This resulted in last year (the 2012 season) having high projections for QB's, and people drafting QB's fairly early in the draft.
Quarterbacks ended up not doing as spectacular during the 2012 season. Only averaging 344.5 points. The important thing to note is that the projections and 2011 season numbers influenced how the draft in 2012 panned out. It is very important to adjust your strategy based on the numbers and draft trends. The draft you participate in may be completely different then the tendencies listed for 2013. However it is very important to be prepared.Many people draft off of the rankings on the draft board or have little preparation leading up to the draft. Do your homework!
Quarterbacks ended up not doing as spectacular during the 2012 season. Only averaging 344.5 points. The important thing to note is that the projections and 2011 season numbers influenced how the draft in 2012 panned out. It is very important to adjust your strategy based on the numbers and draft trends. The draft you participate in may be completely different then the tendencies listed for 2013. However it is very important to be prepared.Many people draft off of the rankings on the draft board or have little preparation leading up to the draft. Do your homework!
I believe it is important to have elite players at multiple positions. You can not afford to neglect team needs. Is your league a using flex? Or do you play 3 WR's and 2 RB's? Is it a PPR? Standard scoring? Do you use Team Defense or IDP? Look at those elements of your league and plan your draft.
My 12 team league uses a flex.
1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 RB/WR
1 TE
1 DEF
1 K
Knowing your league structure is important. If you have a flex you have the ability to either play three running backs, or three wide receivers. Standard leagues make you play three wide receivers and two running backs. Either way I believe it is extremely important to draft a high point producing running back.
It is obviously ideal to have great point producing players at every position. I have conducted several mock drafts. I have found that it is necessary (especially in a 12 team league) to draft a high point producing running back. You need at least one back to try to bring you elite numbers.
It is obviously ideal to have great point producing players at every position. I have conducted several mock drafts. I have found that it is necessary (especially in a 12 team league) to draft a high point producing running back. You need at least one back to try to bring you elite numbers.
It is important to draft positions that do not have a surplus of talent. It is important to draft a Top 10 Running Back. The drop off from the top 10 RB's to the 11-20 RB's is enormous. All the charts below deal in averages. I take the players fantasy points and average them out. The chart below shows the importance of having an elite running back.
The difference between the Top 5 players at a given position and the 6 to 10 ranked players at a given position are listed above.
The difference between the Top 12 players at a given position and the 12-24 ranked players are given above. Quarterbacks were not included since you only need one starter on your team. (Unless in a 2 QB league, but this article is not discussing those) The charts above should give you a good idea as to why I believe it is essential to draft a quality running back. The difference between the top 12 running backs and the 12th to 24th ranked running backs is enormous. There are more wide receivers that can produce similar numbers then running backs.
I believe a key to fantasy football drafting is to draft the best player available. Draft the player who excels the most compared to his peers.Last year I snagged Andre Johnson really late in a 10 man draft, it really helped my team. Draft the best players available. If Brandon Marshall is around in the 2nd round, take him. Don't take a running back who you do not have faith in just to have two running backs off the bat. Some players do produce truly exceptional numbers. One thing I have noticed in drafts is teams filling "needs". You do not need to draft a Tight End in the sixth round just to hit your requirements. If there is a great Tight End on the board take him! But if you are just drafting to "fill a hole" see if there is something else on the board.
The following is a list of players who are projected to put up exceptional numbers. These players would be a valuable additions to your team, and you should attempt to draft them if you can. (Projections based off Fftoday.com on August 11th)
Aaron Rodgers 349.7
Doug Martin 243.2
Arian Foster 241.9
C.J. Spiller 231.6
Alfred Morris 226.2
Ray Rice 223.0
Marshawn Lynch 218.3
Jamal Charles 216.1
Lesean McCoy 215.1
Dez Bryant 205.4
A.J. Green 194
Brandon Marshall 190
Demaryius Thomas 189.9
Julio Jones 187
I believe a key to fantasy football drafting is to draft the best player available. Draft the player who excels the most compared to his peers.Last year I snagged Andre Johnson really late in a 10 man draft, it really helped my team. Draft the best players available. If Brandon Marshall is around in the 2nd round, take him. Don't take a running back who you do not have faith in just to have two running backs off the bat. Some players do produce truly exceptional numbers. One thing I have noticed in drafts is teams filling "needs". You do not need to draft a Tight End in the sixth round just to hit your requirements. If there is a great Tight End on the board take him! But if you are just drafting to "fill a hole" see if there is something else on the board.
The following is a list of players who are projected to put up exceptional numbers. These players would be a valuable additions to your team, and you should attempt to draft them if you can. (Projections based off Fftoday.com on August 11th)
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees 357Aaron Rodgers 349.7
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson 268.4Doug Martin 243.2
Arian Foster 241.9
C.J. Spiller 231.6
Alfred Morris 226.2
Ray Rice 223.0
Marshawn Lynch 218.3
Jamal Charles 216.1
Lesean McCoy 215.1
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson 230.5Dez Bryant 205.4
A.J. Green 194
Brandon Marshall 190
Demaryius Thomas 189.9
Julio Jones 187
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham 164.4Rob Gronkowski 154
The key to my draft strategy is to draft players who have exceptional point production. Point production beyond their peers. I have listed elements of this years draft such as the need to get a running back. Drafting a good quarterback is important but not as important as drafting a talented running back. You need at least two running backs, and two wide receivers. (1 RB/WR more in a flex, or 1 more WR in "standard" leagues)
Here is a telling comparison from last years season.
12th Ranked RB
Chris Johnson 182.9
24th Ranked RB
Willis McGahee 119.2
Point Difference
63.7
12th Ranked WR
Wes Welker 173.4
24th Ranked WR
Mike Wallace 132.5
Point Difference
40.9
Much more depth is found at wide receiver. The drop off from the high level RB's to 2nd Tier and 3rd Tier is enormous. More receivers can provide a similar amount of points. Quarterbacks have an interesting distribution of points as well. The projections state that Brees and Rodgers will have exceptional performances, but believe that Manning, Newton, Stafford, Capernick, and Romo will all be within 20 points of each other.
Good luck to everyone drafting! If you have read this and have any questions feel free to leave a comment. I have posted more links below that could aide you in your draft!
Monday, July 15, 2013
Fantasy Football 2013: Mike Wallace
Mike Wallace has left the Pittsburgh Steelers and will not be catching passes in Miami. His quarterback is young Ryan Tannehill.To predict how Wallace will perform in 2013 it is necessary to analyze both Wallace, and Tannehill.
Mike Wallace had his best year in 2010. He had 1257 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns and 190 fantasy points. He ranked fifth in fantasy points for a wide receiver. His upside is certainly high. Last year saw a more meagre performance from Wallace. He only put up 133 fantasy points. His career averages are not bad, but not spectacular. Over his four years in the NFL he averages 1053 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 153 fantasy points a season. He averages 9.71 fantasy points a game. He is certainly a receiver you would want on your team, but will he be the Mike Wallace who places in the top 10 wide receivers? Two seasons of rankings in the 20-30 ranked wide receivers, and two seasons of top 10 rankings, what will it be this year?
Ryan Tannehill's rookie year was not amazing, but he cemented himself as the clear starter in
Miami. He threw for 3294 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He was the 24th ranked
QB amassing 230 fantasy points. Brian Hartline (Dolphins Receiver and Tannehill's favourite target last year)
said Tannehill's improvement has been amazing. His coaches are very high on his abilities.
Reggie Bush is gone from the Dolphins, Lamar Miller will reportedly be the starting runningback.
It is important for the Dolphins to have an efficient offense in order for Wallace and Tannehill
to have good seasons. I believe that Wallace will have a good year. He should be able to amass the point total that Hartline did last year. He will most likely be Tannehill's number one receiver. It is important for Tannehill to throw more then 12 touchdowns. That number from last year was very low.
Some people are projecting Wallace to be a top five receiver. On the high end he could be, on the low end he will be in the top 20.Wallace is a receiver worth drafting, but I will not be picking him early. I feel like he could be picked too high. Wallace has never had a season in which he caught over 75 balls. Wallace will have at least 160 fantasy points. He could be in the Top 5 and have an amazing season, but I like to think of the low end, not just the high. Depending on how mock drafts over the next few months, I will adjust this article based on his draft position.
Mike Wallace had his best year in 2010. He had 1257 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns and 190 fantasy points. He ranked fifth in fantasy points for a wide receiver. His upside is certainly high. Last year saw a more meagre performance from Wallace. He only put up 133 fantasy points. His career averages are not bad, but not spectacular. Over his four years in the NFL he averages 1053 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 153 fantasy points a season. He averages 9.71 fantasy points a game. He is certainly a receiver you would want on your team, but will he be the Mike Wallace who places in the top 10 wide receivers? Two seasons of rankings in the 20-30 ranked wide receivers, and two seasons of top 10 rankings, what will it be this year?
Ryan Tannehill's rookie year was not amazing, but he cemented himself as the clear starter in
Miami. He threw for 3294 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He was the 24th ranked
QB amassing 230 fantasy points. Brian Hartline (Dolphins Receiver and Tannehill's favourite target last year)
said Tannehill's improvement has been amazing. His coaches are very high on his abilities.
Reggie Bush is gone from the Dolphins, Lamar Miller will reportedly be the starting runningback.
It is important for the Dolphins to have an efficient offense in order for Wallace and Tannehill
to have good seasons. I believe that Wallace will have a good year. He should be able to amass the point total that Hartline did last year. He will most likely be Tannehill's number one receiver. It is important for Tannehill to throw more then 12 touchdowns. That number from last year was very low.
Some people are projecting Wallace to be a top five receiver. On the high end he could be, on the low end he will be in the top 20.Wallace is a receiver worth drafting, but I will not be picking him early. I feel like he could be picked too high. Wallace has never had a season in which he caught over 75 balls. Wallace will have at least 160 fantasy points. He could be in the Top 5 and have an amazing season, but I like to think of the low end, not just the high. Depending on how mock drafts over the next few months, I will adjust this article based on his draft position.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Fantasy Football 2013: Danny Amendola
Danny Amendola going to the Patriots is a very interesting off season move. Amendola has shown promise as a receiver, but has faced injury problems in his four NFL seasons. Amendola's number with the Rams are not spectacular, but neither was his quarterback (Sam Bradford).
Amendola averaged 60.54 yards a game last season, and about 6 catches a game. I am not very high on Sam Bradford, the Rams were only ranked 20th in the passing game. I believe a change in teams and quarterback will help Amendola. Amendola will now be with the Patriots, who posses the first ranked passing offense, as well as the first ranked total offense in the NFL. The Patriots have lost Wes Welker, this will certainly leave a gap in the offense that must be filled.
Wes Welker had 118 catches, 1354 yards, and 6 touchdowns. His departure leaves plenty of touches in the offense that must be replaced. Some are speculating that Rob Gronkowski's injuries are numerous and will delay his season start time. Aaron Hernandez is not going to absorb all the touches Welker leaves behind, so Amendola should be able to get the ball a healthy amount of times. If Gronkowski does see less field time. Amendola's touches could increase.
Amendola should be good for at least 1,000 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns, and 100 receptions. That is on the low end. He will be a top twenty receiver this year. There is also a chance he has an amazing year and is a top 5 receiver. He could put up over 180 fantasy points. This all hinges on his health, and how the Patriots offense chooses to distribute the ball this year. I will add to this article closer to the draft. Much of drafting Danny Amendola will depend on where people are drafting him in mock drafts, and how he is ranked and then perceived by drafters. If Amendola stays healthy he could definetly be an impressive piece of your fantasy team, and a number one receiver.
Amendola averaged 60.54 yards a game last season, and about 6 catches a game. I am not very high on Sam Bradford, the Rams were only ranked 20th in the passing game. I believe a change in teams and quarterback will help Amendola. Amendola will now be with the Patriots, who posses the first ranked passing offense, as well as the first ranked total offense in the NFL. The Patriots have lost Wes Welker, this will certainly leave a gap in the offense that must be filled.
Wes Welker had 118 catches, 1354 yards, and 6 touchdowns. His departure leaves plenty of touches in the offense that must be replaced. Some are speculating that Rob Gronkowski's injuries are numerous and will delay his season start time. Aaron Hernandez is not going to absorb all the touches Welker leaves behind, so Amendola should be able to get the ball a healthy amount of times. If Gronkowski does see less field time. Amendola's touches could increase.
Amendola should be good for at least 1,000 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns, and 100 receptions. That is on the low end. He will be a top twenty receiver this year. There is also a chance he has an amazing year and is a top 5 receiver. He could put up over 180 fantasy points. This all hinges on his health, and how the Patriots offense chooses to distribute the ball this year. I will add to this article closer to the draft. Much of drafting Danny Amendola will depend on where people are drafting him in mock drafts, and how he is ranked and then perceived by drafters. If Amendola stays healthy he could definetly be an impressive piece of your fantasy team, and a number one receiver.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Fantasy Football 2013: Wes Welker
Wes Welker has went from being a New England Patriot, to being a Denver Bronco. He has left Tom Brady, and will now be catching throws from Peyton Manning. Welker changing teams is one of the interesting moves from the off season.
In the last five years Wes Welker had only had one year with under 1,000 receiving yards. His averages over the last five years are nothing short of amazing. Welker averages 14.30 fantasy points a game. He has never missed more then 2 games in a season. He averages 111 yards a game, and scored a touchdown about every 2 games with an average of .49 touchdowns a game. Clearly Wes Welker is a dominant fantasy force. How will he effect the Denver Broncos and how will his own numbers be affected?
The Denver Broncos had an interesting offense last year. They had a powerful offense. Peyton Manning distributed the ball effectively. He had two favorite targets. Demaryius Thomas who had 28% of the receptions for WR/TE, and 203.8 fantasy points (33% of WR/TE). His other favorite target was Eric Decker who accounted for 25% of WR/TE receptions as well as 29% of the fantasy points with 184.4. The other significant receivers and tight ends we're Brandon Stokely who had 13% of receptions and 84.4 fantasy points, Jacob Tamme who had 16% of receptions with 67.5 fantasy points, as well as Joel Dreessen who had 12% with 65.6 fantasy points.
Clearly Thomas and Decker are the core of the Denver attack. How will Welker fit in? I did some number crunching and tried to come up with an estimation of his effect on the teams receiving numbers. Some people have been saying that Welker will hurt Decker's numbers more then Thomas'. I am not one hundred percent certain who will have the more severe number drop. I am fairly certain that Thomas will amass over 200 fantasy points again. I believe the maximum any of the trio would be able to produce would be around 185 fantasy points. I believe one of the receivers will be around 180 points, another around 170, and another around 150. These numbers we're found by shaving receptions from Tamme, Dressen, Decker, and Thomas to account for Welker replacing and having a heightened impact compared to Stokely. If Welker had 82 receptions, 916 yards, and 9 touchdowns he would produce 146 fantasy points.
It is hard to predict exactly what Welker's impact will be on the Broncos. However it is clear to me that he will take away some receptions that would have went to Decker, and Thomas. Welker should be able to get at least 140 fantasy points at the low end of the spectrum, 180 points at the high end. Welker getting 140-150 points would see Decker and Thomas achieving 160+ fantasy point years respectively, Welker getting above 170 points would see a serious drop in stats to Decker and/or Thomas. I would draft Wes Welker as one of my fantasy football receivers, I would not draft him in the first two rounds. I will update this post closer to draft time, when mock draft data is available, and his draft position is more defined.
In the last five years Wes Welker had only had one year with under 1,000 receiving yards. His averages over the last five years are nothing short of amazing. Welker averages 14.30 fantasy points a game. He has never missed more then 2 games in a season. He averages 111 yards a game, and scored a touchdown about every 2 games with an average of .49 touchdowns a game. Clearly Wes Welker is a dominant fantasy force. How will he effect the Denver Broncos and how will his own numbers be affected?
The Denver Broncos had an interesting offense last year. They had a powerful offense. Peyton Manning distributed the ball effectively. He had two favorite targets. Demaryius Thomas who had 28% of the receptions for WR/TE, and 203.8 fantasy points (33% of WR/TE). His other favorite target was Eric Decker who accounted for 25% of WR/TE receptions as well as 29% of the fantasy points with 184.4. The other significant receivers and tight ends we're Brandon Stokely who had 13% of receptions and 84.4 fantasy points, Jacob Tamme who had 16% of receptions with 67.5 fantasy points, as well as Joel Dreessen who had 12% with 65.6 fantasy points.
Clearly Thomas and Decker are the core of the Denver attack. How will Welker fit in? I did some number crunching and tried to come up with an estimation of his effect on the teams receiving numbers. Some people have been saying that Welker will hurt Decker's numbers more then Thomas'. I am not one hundred percent certain who will have the more severe number drop. I am fairly certain that Thomas will amass over 200 fantasy points again. I believe the maximum any of the trio would be able to produce would be around 185 fantasy points. I believe one of the receivers will be around 180 points, another around 170, and another around 150. These numbers we're found by shaving receptions from Tamme, Dressen, Decker, and Thomas to account for Welker replacing and having a heightened impact compared to Stokely. If Welker had 82 receptions, 916 yards, and 9 touchdowns he would produce 146 fantasy points.
It is hard to predict exactly what Welker's impact will be on the Broncos. However it is clear to me that he will take away some receptions that would have went to Decker, and Thomas. Welker should be able to get at least 140 fantasy points at the low end of the spectrum, 180 points at the high end. Welker getting 140-150 points would see Decker and Thomas achieving 160+ fantasy point years respectively, Welker getting above 170 points would see a serious drop in stats to Decker and/or Thomas. I would draft Wes Welker as one of my fantasy football receivers, I would not draft him in the first two rounds. I will update this post closer to draft time, when mock draft data is available, and his draft position is more defined.
Sunday, April 07, 2013
Fantasy Football 2013: Greg Jennings
Greg Jennings is no longer a Green Bay Packer. He has left the Green and Yellow, to don the Purple of the Minnesota Vikings. How will this impact Jennings fantasy value in 2013?
Greg Jennings could have a very productive year in Minnesota. Jennings has always been a favorable target in the red zone. Over the past five years Jennings had been thrown to in the Redzone 71 times, hauled in 41 catches, with 21 of them being touchdowns. Half the time he gets a Redzone reception it is for a touchdown. Jennings can provide the Vikings another option besides Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph.Percy Harvin is no longer a Viking, hopefully Jennings can fill the void.
An important indicator of a receivers skill is yardage. A receiver who consistently puts up yardage will benefit you in fantasy football. He is less likely to blank the board for you. Greg Jennings has impressive career averages. Over the last five years Jennings has averaged 72 yards a game, a touchdown every two games, and an impressive 10.53 fantasy points a game.
I believe Christian Ponder is a decent quarterback. He has a premier running back in Adrian Peterson, and will benefit from the addition of Jennings. Ponder played well when Harvin was healthy last year, and should return to form with Jennings. My biggest concern is Greg Jennings health. In 2012 he played only 8 games, 2011 he played 13. If Jennings can remain healthy he will be a welcomed addition to your fantasy team. The only drawback is his injuries from the past two seasons. I would still draft him, but not over reach and take him early. I would not draft many wide receivers in the first two rounds, but is covered in my old articles, and will be covered in my 2013 draft strategy.
Greg Jennings could have a very productive year in Minnesota. Jennings has always been a favorable target in the red zone. Over the past five years Jennings had been thrown to in the Redzone 71 times, hauled in 41 catches, with 21 of them being touchdowns. Half the time he gets a Redzone reception it is for a touchdown. Jennings can provide the Vikings another option besides Adrian Peterson and Kyle Rudolph.Percy Harvin is no longer a Viking, hopefully Jennings can fill the void.
An important indicator of a receivers skill is yardage. A receiver who consistently puts up yardage will benefit you in fantasy football. He is less likely to blank the board for you. Greg Jennings has impressive career averages. Over the last five years Jennings has averaged 72 yards a game, a touchdown every two games, and an impressive 10.53 fantasy points a game.
I believe Christian Ponder is a decent quarterback. He has a premier running back in Adrian Peterson, and will benefit from the addition of Jennings. Ponder played well when Harvin was healthy last year, and should return to form with Jennings. My biggest concern is Greg Jennings health. In 2012 he played only 8 games, 2011 he played 13. If Jennings can remain healthy he will be a welcomed addition to your fantasy team. The only drawback is his injuries from the past two seasons. I would still draft him, but not over reach and take him early. I would not draft many wide receivers in the first two rounds, but is covered in my old articles, and will be covered in my 2013 draft strategy.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Rashard Mendenhall To Arizona Cardinals (Fantasy Football 2013)
Rashard Mendenhall has followed former Offensive Co-Ordinator Bruce Arians to the desert. Last season Mendenhall only played in six games. The two enjoyed success when Arians was in Pittsburgh. How will this signing impact Mendenhall's fantasy value? If you strike out 2008 (4 games, under 100 yards) and 2012 (only 60 total touches) you have three years of healthy Mendenhall data.
Many interesting numbers can be found regarding Rashard Mendenhall based on the 2009,2010, and 2011 seasons. When Mendenhall is healthy he averages 12.1 fantasy points a game, and 189.73 fantasy points for the year. Those are very respectable numbers. Mendenhall could be a viable number two fantasy back, or an excellent flex player if he can replicate those numbers.
The variable in this equation is the team he has arrived on. The Cardinals are my favorite NFL team, but I examine them with no bias. They had a terrible offensive year. The running game was especially poor. All of the Cardinals running backs amassed 169.75 fantasy points for the 2012 season. They averaged out to 9.98 points a game last year. That is ever single running back on the team combined. The Cardinals had a very bad year on offense, facing issues both passing and running the ball.
I believe Mendenhall will be good for 179.74 fantasy points this season. I determined this by averaging Mendenhall's healthy numbers and the Cardinals 2012 rushing statistics. 179.4 fantasy points would rank 13th for the 2012 season. This would place Mendenhall's as the best 2nd level RB in football. 179.74. Some people may find the 180 point number to be ambitious, but I can guarantee that he will hit 150 points if healthy. Would I take Mendenhall in the 2nd round of a twelve man draft? No. If I need a 2nd running back or a flex option I would snag him at value. If the Cardinals can shore up their offensive line through the draft or free agency I would consider snagging him at value. He may have a great season.
Many interesting numbers can be found regarding Rashard Mendenhall based on the 2009,2010, and 2011 seasons. When Mendenhall is healthy he averages 12.1 fantasy points a game, and 189.73 fantasy points for the year. Those are very respectable numbers. Mendenhall could be a viable number two fantasy back, or an excellent flex player if he can replicate those numbers.
The variable in this equation is the team he has arrived on. The Cardinals are my favorite NFL team, but I examine them with no bias. They had a terrible offensive year. The running game was especially poor. All of the Cardinals running backs amassed 169.75 fantasy points for the 2012 season. They averaged out to 9.98 points a game last year. That is ever single running back on the team combined. The Cardinals had a very bad year on offense, facing issues both passing and running the ball.
I believe Mendenhall will be good for 179.74 fantasy points this season. I determined this by averaging Mendenhall's healthy numbers and the Cardinals 2012 rushing statistics. 179.4 fantasy points would rank 13th for the 2012 season. This would place Mendenhall's as the best 2nd level RB in football. 179.74. Some people may find the 180 point number to be ambitious, but I can guarantee that he will hit 150 points if healthy. Would I take Mendenhall in the 2nd round of a twelve man draft? No. If I need a 2nd running back or a flex option I would snag him at value. If the Cardinals can shore up their offensive line through the draft or free agency I would consider snagging him at value. He may have a great season.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Updates
I am currently working on tons of random math and different spreadsheets for this site. I will be expanding on and defining my draft strategy for the upcoming year. I have also examined players and their three years of data to try to see who has consistent performance. If there are any topics you readers want analyzed leave a comment and let me know!
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Best Fantasy Football Players 2012
Best Fantasy Performers of 2012
These are the fantasy performers who
achieved numbers greater then the average of the Top 5 at their
position. I took the Top 5 performers by fantasy points, added up
their points, divided that number by five. Any player who has a point
total that exceeds the Top 5 average had a truly amazing season.These
are the Fantasy Football Studs from 2012.
Quarterbacks
The average of the Top 5 Quarterbacks
was 405.3 points. Three quarterbacks put up Fantasy numbers that made
them truly advantageous to have on your team.
Drew Brees
The Saints did not make the
play offs, however Brees had the best numbers of any quarterback.
Wins and losses don't matter as much in fantasy football as they do in the
normal game of football. Brees put up an incredible 437.4 points. He
threw for the third highest yardage total of all time with 5,177
putting his current season behind he and Brady's 2011 year. He also
lead the NFL with 43 touchdowns . He was tied for most interceptions
thrown in the NFL with 19... Who cares! He threw 43 touchdowns,
5,177 yards, and had 405.3 total fantasy points. Barring a very
unfortunate injury Brees should be a fantasy stud for several more
years. He was the best fantasy quarterback of 2012.
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers had an extremely productive fantasy year putting up 409.1 points. He threw for 4,303 yards and 39 touchdown passes. Rodgers should continue to be a fantasy all star for a few more years. He has great receivers around him, and seems to be able to get points regardless of who is on the field. Rodgers did not have a receiver break 1,000 yards this year, and still threw for over 4,000 yards. He dealt with tons of injuries, and showed he can distribute the ball and still run a successful offense.
Rodgers had an extremely productive fantasy year putting up 409.1 points. He threw for 4,303 yards and 39 touchdown passes. Rodgers should continue to be a fantasy all star for a few more years. He has great receivers around him, and seems to be able to get points regardless of who is on the field. Rodgers did not have a receiver break 1,000 yards this year, and still threw for over 4,000 yards. He dealt with tons of injuries, and showed he can distribute the ball and still run a successful offense.
Tom Brady
Brady fell just below the 405.3 average, but was within a point of finishing at 404.6 fantasy points. He dealt with injuries to his Tight Ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Brady had an impressive year and like the other two quarterbacks mentioned, above is a great addition to your fantasy team. Brady puts up great fantasy numbers every year.
Brady fell just below the 405.3 average, but was within a point of finishing at 404.6 fantasy points. He dealt with injuries to his Tight Ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Brady had an impressive year and like the other two quarterbacks mentioned, above is a great addition to your fantasy team. Brady puts up great fantasy numbers every year.
Runningbacks
The average for the Top 5 Runningbacks
is 267.14. If you eliminate Aadrian Peterson's amazing 2,000 plus
yard season and 309.4 fantasy point season you have an average of
249.68.
Adrian Peterson
His story has been well documented. He came back from a major injury, surgery, and had a phenomenal year. He rushed for a ridiculous 2,097 yards. Peterson was just nine yards away from Eric Dickerson's all time record of 2,105 yards. He was the best player at any position in terms of distancing himself from the #2 man at a position point wise.
His story has been well documented. He came back from a major injury, surgery, and had a phenomenal year. He rushed for a ridiculous 2,097 yards. Peterson was just nine yards away from Eric Dickerson's all time record of 2,105 yards. He was the best player at any position in terms of distancing himself from the #2 man at a position point wise.
Arian Foster
He was the second best runningback fantasy wise. The Texans have relied on his running for the last few seasons. He had 1,411 yards with 15 touchdowns this year, and put up 256.1 points in the 2011 season. Foster is a runningback who has delivered for those who have spent a high draft pick on him. I expect good things from him in the upcoming year.
He was the second best runningback fantasy wise. The Texans have relied on his running for the last few seasons. He had 1,411 yards with 15 touchdowns this year, and put up 256.1 points in the 2011 season. Foster is a runningback who has delivered for those who have spent a high draft pick on him. I expect good things from him in the upcoming year.
Doug
Martin
He was a true breakout performer this year. The Buccaneers drafted him in the first round, and he was well worth the pick. He had 1,454 yard on the year, and scored 11 rushing touchdowns. His 264.6 fantasy points were 3rd best, and top for rookie runningbacks. Anyone who took Doug Martin can say that they got their moneys worth.
He was a true breakout performer this year. The Buccaneers drafted him in the first round, and he was well worth the pick. He had 1,454 yard on the year, and scored 11 rushing touchdowns. His 264.6 fantasy points were 3rd best, and top for rookie runningbacks. Anyone who took Doug Martin can say that they got their moneys worth.
Honorable
Mentions
These two players would be elite when you remove Adrian Petersons insanely high total from the average of the Top 5. Marshawn Lynch 250 points. Alfred Morris 246.3 points.
These two players would be elite when you remove Adrian Petersons insanely high total from the average of the Top 5. Marshawn Lynch 250 points. Alfred Morris 246.3 points.
Wide
Receiver
The
average for the Top 5 wide receivers was 212.34. There were three
very talented receivers who beat the Top 5 average or were incredibly
close.
Calvin
Johnson
An impressive 226.4 points making him the best wide receiver. He had an absolutely mammoth amount of yardage. He broke Jerry Rice's single season receiving yard record. He had 1,964 yards on the year. The only thing that slightly limited his fantasy points was his low touchdown output. He only had 5 touchdowns on the year. In 2011 he had 16 touchdowns, and around 300 less yards, but ended with more fantasy points. Johnson is going to be the best fantasy wide receiver for quite some time. Detroit was terrible this year, they only had four wins. However, as with Drew Brees, wins do not matter in Fantasy Football. I can't predict how the Lions will do next year, but I can predict Calvin Johnson will have an incredible year once again.
An impressive 226.4 points making him the best wide receiver. He had an absolutely mammoth amount of yardage. He broke Jerry Rice's single season receiving yard record. He had 1,964 yards on the year. The only thing that slightly limited his fantasy points was his low touchdown output. He only had 5 touchdowns on the year. In 2011 he had 16 touchdowns, and around 300 less yards, but ended with more fantasy points. Johnson is going to be the best fantasy wide receiver for quite some time. Detroit was terrible this year, they only had four wins. However, as with Drew Brees, wins do not matter in Fantasy Football. I can't predict how the Lions will do next year, but I can predict Calvin Johnson will have an incredible year once again.
Brandon
Marshall
He was definitely the favorite target of Jay Cutler. Marshall had an extremely productive year. He amassed 216.6 fantasy points. He had 118 catches, 1,508 yards, as well as eleven touchdowns. He will prove to be an excellent fantasy option as long as Jay Cutler is throwing him the ball. He would do well in any offense, but he and Cutler seem to have really good chemistry.
He was definitely the favorite target of Jay Cutler. Marshall had an extremely productive year. He amassed 216.6 fantasy points. He had 118 catches, 1,508 yards, as well as eleven touchdowns. He will prove to be an excellent fantasy option as long as Jay Cutler is throwing him the ball. He would do well in any offense, but he and Cutler seem to have really good chemistry.
Dez
Bryant
Dez Bryant put up 209.7 fantasy points. He has 92 catches, 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns. He had a very good year, and although he started off slow, he delivered for those who needed him to late in the season. He should continue to be a stellar fantasy option for the next few years.
Dez Bryant put up 209.7 fantasy points. He has 92 catches, 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns. He had a very good year, and although he started off slow, he delivered for those who needed him to late in the season. He should continue to be a stellar fantasy option for the next few years.
Tight Ends
The
average of the Top 5 Tight Ends was 137.94. Three amazing fantasy
Tight Ends emerged.
The
elite Tight Ends can make a significant difference in your number of
wins for the year.
Rob
Gronkowski
He had slightly less points for the year then Jimmy Graham. 145 against Graham's 152.2. The amazing thing about Gronk is he achieved his point total in only 11 games! He was hurt which was very unfortunate. Gronk achieved 13.2 points a game vs Graham's 10.1 points a game. If Gronk had stayed healthy he was on pace to break 200 fantasy points. He should be a strong fantasy performer again next year.
He had slightly less points for the year then Jimmy Graham. 145 against Graham's 152.2. The amazing thing about Gronk is he achieved his point total in only 11 games! He was hurt which was very unfortunate. Gronk achieved 13.2 points a game vs Graham's 10.1 points a game. If Gronk had stayed healthy he was on pace to break 200 fantasy points. He should be a strong fantasy performer again next year.
Jimmy
Graham
Jimmy had 152.2 fantasy points. He is a favorite option of Drew Brees. The Saints
Jimmy had 152.2 fantasy points. He is a favorite option of Drew Brees. The Saints
did
not make the playoffs, but Graham still had an excellent year. As
long as Drew Brees is the Saints quarterback, Jimmy Graham should
continue to be a top three fantasy tight end.
Tony
Gonzalez
He has had quite a remarkable career. Matt Ryan has plenty of options in the high powered Falcons offense. Gonzalez was still able to put up 930 yards and 8 touchdowns, even with all the other options in the Falcons offense. He and Matt Ryan clearly have chemistry as he was thrown to 124 times, and hauled in 93 catches. Gonzalez has had a great career and should continue to right up until retirement.
He has had quite a remarkable career. Matt Ryan has plenty of options in the high powered Falcons offense. Gonzalez was still able to put up 930 yards and 8 touchdowns, even with all the other options in the Falcons offense. He and Matt Ryan clearly have chemistry as he was thrown to 124 times, and hauled in 93 catches. Gonzalez has had a great career and should continue to right up until retirement.
Kicker
The
Top 5 kickers averaged out to 144 fantasy points. Many kickers are
worthwhile fantasy options. A select few put up exceptional numbers
that make them more beneficial to have then other kickers.
Stephen
Gostkowski
The New England Patriot kicker produced 153 fantasy points. He kicked 66 PAT's, the runner up was Denver's kicker who kicked 55. The Patriots offense score so much that Gostkowski kicks more 1 point PAT's then anyone else. They are not worth as much as field goals, but still add up. Gostkowski was 29 of 35 in regular field goals. As long as he is the Patriots kicker, he should continue to have good fantasy years.
The New England Patriot kicker produced 153 fantasy points. He kicked 66 PAT's, the runner up was Denver's kicker who kicked 55. The Patriots offense score so much that Gostkowski kicks more 1 point PAT's then anyone else. They are not worth as much as field goals, but still add up. Gostkowski was 29 of 35 in regular field goals. As long as he is the Patriots kicker, he should continue to have good fantasy years.
Lawrence
Tynes
Kicker for the New York Giants. He put up 145 fantasy points. He was 33 of 39, with 46 PAT's. It must be stressful being Tom Coughlin's kicker, he pulls it off though. I know that is not the best fantasy analysis, but it's true!
Kicker for the New York Giants. He put up 145 fantasy points. He was 33 of 39, with 46 PAT's. It must be stressful being Tom Coughlin's kicker, he pulls it off though. I know that is not the best fantasy analysis, but it's true!
Team
Defense
The
top 5 defenses averages out to 125.4 points. Only two teams surpassed
this mark. In fact the average was so high due to one spectacular
defense.
Chicago
Bears
Da BEARS. They put up a remarkable 143 fantasy points. The Bears scored 9 defensive touchdowns. If you had the Chicago Bears defense on your fantasy squad you had a distinct advantage. The Bears were 17 points better than Denver, who was the 2nd best defensive team. The Bears put up a remarkable 41 sacks, 20 fumble recoveries, and had 24 interceptions. They were the best defense in the NFL. Next year's performance could change. They will still have a stellar group of defensive players, but no longer have Lovie Smith as coach. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the team.
Da BEARS. They put up a remarkable 143 fantasy points. The Bears scored 9 defensive touchdowns. If you had the Chicago Bears defense on your fantasy squad you had a distinct advantage. The Bears were 17 points better than Denver, who was the 2nd best defensive team. The Bears put up a remarkable 41 sacks, 20 fumble recoveries, and had 24 interceptions. They were the best defense in the NFL. Next year's performance could change. They will still have a stellar group of defensive players, but no longer have Lovie Smith as coach. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the team.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos put up 126 fantasy points. They lead the NFL with 52 sacks, and had strong play from linebacker Von Miller. The Broncos also benefit from teams having to play catch up football. With Peyton Manning at the helm, other teams are often playing from behind.
The Broncos put up 126 fantasy points. They lead the NFL with 52 sacks, and had strong play from linebacker Von Miller. The Broncos also benefit from teams having to play catch up football. With Peyton Manning at the helm, other teams are often playing from behind.
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