What is a bust? RB's

What is a bust? One definition from the dictionary is that a bust is “to ruin financially”. The first two rounds of a fantasy football draft can either make or break your season. These rounds are where you must pick players who are projected to have great seasons. Last year saw a crazy amount of busts at the running back position. 

My definition of a bust may differ from others. I view the Top 12 RB’s picked from last year’s season and see which of these running backs finished in the Top 12 for points. It can be argued that a RB picked with the first five picks of the draft should have higher expectations but for my purposes I’m examining how many within the Top 12 for ADP finish in the Top 12 for Fantasy Points.  

Name	Pick	Final Rank	Points	Difference	Result
Adrian Peterson	1.02	2	230.7	71.3	+
LeVeon Bell	1.03	47	87.2	-72.2	-
Eddie Lacy	1.03	25	120.6	-38.8	-
Jamaal Charles	1.04	49	84.1	-75.3	-
Marshawn Lynch	1.05	56	67.7	-91.7	-
CJ Anderson	1.08	30	116.3	-43.1	-
Jeremy Hill	1.09	14	153.3	-6.1	-
DeMarco Murray	2.01	18	140.1	-19.3	-
Matt Forte	2.03	9	170.7	11.3	+
LeSean McCoy	2.07	17	144.7	-14.7	-
Justin Forsett	2.09	43	91.4	-68	-
Lamar Miller	2.09	6	184.9	25.5	+

The benchmark for my study was 159.4 fantasy points, the points for the 12^th RB at the end of the year. Last year was a very bad year for running backs. Adrian Peterson was the only RB drafted in the first round who truly delivered. Matt Forte and Lamar Miler were backs drafted in the second round who delivered solid fantasy points.

The elite running backs from the 2015 season could not get healthy and thrive. LeVeon Bell  and Jamaal Charles tore their ACL’s. Eddie Lacy had an ankle injury and could never really seem to get things going. Marshawn Lynch was injured and limited before retiring at the end of the season. Demarco Murray suffered from... well from playing for Chip Kelly’s Eagles. Various factors held back running backs in 2015.    

This has lead many fantasy owners I have spoken with to have a new WR heavy approach to drafting. I wanted to figure out if last year was an anomaly or if RB’s bust that hard every year.

Year	Success	Bust
2015	3	9
2014	8	4
2013	5	7
2012	7	5
2011	6	6

By my measurements last year was an exceptionally bad year for RB’s. I believe this year will be more predictable than last year. I plan to measure the other positions used in fantasy football and publish my findings as soon as possible.

Offseason

Every fantasy football off season I say the same same thing; that the upcoming season is going to be vastly different than the last. I feel this is especially true this year. LeSean McCoy has went to the Bills, Nick Foles has went to the Rams, Julius Thomas went to Oakland, Torrey Smith to San Francisco, Shane Vereen to the Giants, Jimmy Graham to Seattle and Demarco Murray to Philadelphia.

The best fantasy running back of 2014 has left the Cowboys to go to divisional rival Philadelphia. If Demarco Murray moving to the Eagles doesn't show you there was plenty of change this off season I don't know what will. Many first, second, and third round fantasy players have changed teams.  How will these players number be effected? That is a question I will seek to solve closer to fantasy season.

The snow is melting where I live, the NFL draft is almost upon us, my friends are arguing about last years fantasy season, fantasy football will be upon us in less than six months. I forgot to mention the defensive players who have suddenly retired. Poor 49ers fans. The retirement of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland will no doubt impact IDP leagues. It will be interesting to see how everything pans out. I will be conducting tons of research this off season. I will be posting a draft guide and draft strategies as I have the last few seasons. I hope everyone has been enjoying the fantasy football off season.

2014 Fantasy Season Review

This fantasy football season was full of ups and downs.  I accomplished something that few people have done in competitive fantasy leagues; I won my third Playoff Championship in a row. I did not have remarkable success in all of my leagues.  Both leagues where I possessed the first overall pick saw me not making the playoffs.  I learned many important lessons this fantasy football season. Here is a quick recap of how I performed in each league.

12 Team IDP League

10-3 Regular Season  (13-3 including playoffs)

I finished second in the regular season and won my third playoff championship in a row. I draft incredibly well in this league. The draft is conducted in person. I picked twelfth in the draft.  I come to every draft prepared. I create an Excel Spreadsheet, study scoring systems, then make my picks based off Value Based Drafting principles.  I also benefit from understanding how and when to draft defensive players.  The way in which I draft defensive players is one of the factors that allows me to be so successful.  I understand the scoring system in the league. 5 IDP players are required each week. 3 of any defensive position you want, with 2 players having to be Defensive Back’s.  JJ Watt had 239.96, 1^st among defensive players and 68 points ahead of the 2^nd ranked player. I drafted JJ in the fifth round. Harrison Smith was the best defensive back in terms of fantasy points with 142.50, I took him in the eighth round.

The most important time of the fantasy football season is the draft. If you are in a fantasy league with IDP you need to figure out the leagues scoring system and figure out where to draft defensive players. Plenty of player don’t understand where to draft IDP’s. Only my two quarterbacks, Le'Veon Bell , and Demaryius Thomas scored more points than JJ Watt.  That example should show you the importance of IDP’s. My all time record in this league is 31-8, 40-8 if you include the playoffs. I will admit that other factors played into my success this year. I traded Ahmad Bradshaw for Kelvin Benjamin to shore up my receiving corps while Megatron was hurt, I also chose to abandon Colin Kapernick and picked up Ryan Tannehill off waivers late in the season. My back to back picks of Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas were also extremely important.  I’m hoping to make it four championships in a row next year!

12 Team Flex

5-9 No Playoffs

I had the first pick of the draft and selected LeSean McCoy.  His slow start to the season lost me many games. I had an excellent pick in Le’Veon Bell, he was the second best running back in terms of fantasy points. Multiple things hurt me in this league. My third round pick was Drew Brees who only ended up as the sixth best quarterback. I had hoped for more from Brees. McCoy had an abysmal start to the season. I had a horrible receiving corps. Larry Fitzgerald and Cordarelle Patterson were my starters on opening day…  I did not have good performances from my receivers this year.  It was not my year in this league. If you pick first in the draft and your first pick of the draft does not perform well you are doomed. After picking McCoy I had to wait 23 picks to pick again. Those 23 picks are why I would rather have a later pick. You can get guys who slide in draft position late in the first round.

12 Team Standard

3-10 No Playoffs

I picked first in the draft for the 12 team Standard league.  I once again selected LeSean McCoy.  My other running back was Giovanni Bernard, who I handcuffed by selecting Jeremy Hill.  My biggest mistake was selecting Matthew Stafford in the 5^th round. Stafford ranked as the 15^th best quarterback and was a horrible pick. Selecting Stafford in the 5^th also hindered my receiving corps. My draft day receiving corps was made up of Michael Crabtree, Terrance Williams, and Marques Colston. I lost some close games early in the year. I could have had a few more wins with some luck, but in the end I just did not have a very good team. I told myself never to over draft a marginal fantasy quarterback then I did. This leagues draft was my final draft of the year. I feel as if I made some of my picks in this league based off picks I made in my other leagues. I felt like I wanted a different team than I had in my other leagues. I had the chance to draft Le'Veon Bell but picked Bernard so I would have variety and not have the same back in three leagues. I will not make a mistake like that ever again. You should never have your team in another league influence your decision for a team in a separate league.

I hope everyone enjoyed their respective fantasy football seasons. I will once again be doing a draft guide and posting my draft spreadsheets. I plan to do a ton of research this off season and am hoping to have my best fantasy football year yet. I plan to have a ton of important and useful information on this site to help with next seasons draft. Enjoy the off season everyone! Come here when you start prepping for next seasons draft!