Fantasy Football 2013: Wes Welker

Wes Welker has went from being a New England Patriot, to being a Denver Bronco. He has left Tom Brady, and will now be catching throws from Peyton Manning. Welker changing teams is one of the interesting moves from the off season.

In the last five years Wes Welker had only had one year with under 1,000 receiving yards. His averages over the last five years are nothing short of amazing. Welker averages 14.30 fantasy points a game. He has never missed more then 2 games in a season. He averages 111 yards a game, and scored a touchdown about every 2 games with an average of .49 touchdowns a game. Clearly Wes Welker is a dominant fantasy force. How will he effect the Denver Broncos and how will his own numbers be affected?


The Denver Broncos had an interesting offense last year. They had a powerful offense. Peyton Manning distributed the ball effectively. He had two favorite targets. Demaryius Thomas who had 28% of the receptions for WR/TE, and 203.8 fantasy points (33% of WR/TE). His other favorite target was Eric Decker who accounted for 25% of WR/TE receptions as well as 29% of the fantasy points with 184.4.  The other significant receivers and tight ends we're Brandon Stokely who had 13% of receptions and 84.4 fantasy points, Jacob Tamme who had 16% of receptions with 67.5 fantasy points, as well as Joel Dreessen who had 12% with 65.6 fantasy points.

Clearly Thomas and Decker are the core of the Denver attack. How will Welker fit in?  I did some number crunching and tried to come up with an estimation of his effect on the teams receiving numbers. Some people have been saying that Welker will hurt Decker's numbers more then Thomas'.  I am not one hundred percent certain who will have the more severe number drop. I am fairly certain that Thomas will amass over 200 fantasy points again.  I believe the maximum any of the trio would be able to produce would be around 185 fantasy points. I believe one of the receivers will be around 180 points, another around 170, and another around 150. These numbers we're found by shaving receptions from Tamme, Dressen, Decker, and Thomas to account for Welker replacing and having a heightened impact compared to Stokely. If Welker had 82 receptions, 916 yards, and 9 touchdowns he would produce 146 fantasy points.

It is hard to predict exactly what Welker's impact will be on the Broncos. However it is clear to me that he will take away some receptions that would have went to Decker, and Thomas. Welker should be able to get at least 140 fantasy points at the low end of the spectrum, 180 points at the high end. Welker getting 140-150 points would see Decker and Thomas achieving 160+ fantasy point years respectively, Welker getting above 170 points would see a serious drop in stats to Decker and/or Thomas. I would draft Wes Welker as one of my fantasy football receivers, I would not draft him in the first two rounds. I will update this post closer to draft time, when mock draft data is available, and his draft position is more defined.