Are you unsure of who to draft in the first round? Do you seek guidance in your Fantasy Football quest? Do you yearn to know which gridiron warrior can lead you to glory? The answers to these questions follow. I outline who I believe you should pick from each draft spot in the first round. I am using a 12 team league for this analysis. I believe most owners should take a running back in the first round. Running backs are the position that have the least amount of depth. It does not matter whether you are playing in a standard league with three wide receivers, or a league with a flex. The difference between having a Top 12 Running Back and a lower tier running back is enormous. I use this example from last year.
| 12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson | 24th Ranked RB: Willis McGahee | Point Difference |
| 182.9 | 119.2 | 63.7 |
If you compare Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson the jump from the best running back in the league to the 12th is even greater.
| 1st Ranked RB: Adrian Peterson | 12th Ranked RB: Chris Johnson | Point Difference |
| 309.4 | 182.9 | 126.5 |
I attempt to draft without personal bias and to get the best draft results you should as well. The example above displays the importance of drafting an elite running back. As the draft continues on I believe it is important to draft elite players. You do not necessarily have to draft back to back running backs. All you have to do is draft the player who will out perform his peers. My draft strategy is assembled after doing some number crunching, examining previous year stats, and examining the upcoming years projections. This guide however is not a thesis on my fantasy football beliefs but a quick guide on who I believe should be taken in the first round.
1st PICK
Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson is an amazing running back. Many players who had an early draft pick last year opted for another running back. His draft stock dropped last year due to his recovery from a ACL and MCL tear. A.P showed the entire football world that he was back and better then ever. He fell just nine yards shy of breaking the single season rushing record rushing with 2,097 yards. He put up an amazing 309.40 fantasy points. The next best running back was short of A.P's fantasy point production by 44.8 points. The running back position has the highest fall off from elite to average. One key element of my draft strategy is to have an elite running back. Running backs are a commodity that flies off the draft board. I believe Peterson is the best running back or player you can take in the first draft spot. He has emerged as the best running back in football. He has not let a serious injury hamper his career, lead the NFL in rushing last year, led all RBs in fantasy points, and should have another amazing year. He is aptly nicknames all day, and if you pick him first he may lead you all the way to a championship.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 269.91 | 279 | 272.4 | 309.4 |
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2ND PICK
Doug Martin
Doug Martin had an impressive rookie campaign. He amassed 264.6 fantasy points. Arian Foster edged him by a very small margin of fantasy points. Foster beat him by .2 of a point. Martin made a huge impact last year, and is clearly the number one running back in the Tampa Bay offense. He has Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks healthy which will help the Buccaneers offensive line. Martin should be able to put up great numbers this year, and the sites I have referenced have him ranked in the Top 5 for projected running back fantasy points. While Peterson was my definite number one pick, I had more difficulty deciding who should be taken with the 2nd pick. Doug Martin and the Buccaneers have the 3rd easiest schedule for running backs, while Arian Foster and the Texans have the 4th. What puts Martin ahead of Arian Foster on my draft board is the lack of any injuries clouding his potential output for the season.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 237.08 | 226 | 247.2 | 264.6 |
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3rd PICK
C.J. Spiller
Spiller has cemented himself as the number on back in Buffalo. Spiller managed to put up 218.3 fantasy points last year. He did this with only 250 touches. His touches should go up this year, which will result in even more fantasy points for the 4th year back. As a team, Buffalo is in weird spot. They have not enjoyed success in recent years. E.J. Manuel, Kevin Kolb, and Jeff Tuel are the three quarterbacks taking snaps for the Bills. E.J. Manuel just hurt his knee, Kolb has been a bust in years past, Tuel is an undrafted rookie. Buffalo will have to rely on Spiller in order to win games. Expect big things from Spiller this year.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 234.85 | 227 | 237.6 | 218.3 |
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4th PICK
Arian Foster
Arian Foster has scored over 250 fantasy points yearly, for the past three seasons. He is currently dealing with a back problem, and he will be missing all of the preseason. He claims he will be ready for the regular season. I would believe the man, and not let the injuries deter you from drafting Arian Foster. He has
consistently performed over the past few seasons, and has made big impacts for the fantasy owners lucky enough to draft him. Foster get the ball constantly. In 2010 he had 393 touches, in 2011 he had 331, last year he had 391. A player getting the ball frequently gives him more opportunities to amass fantasy points. He is similar to Adrian Peterson in respect to the fact that he is one of the few elite running backs who can exceed 230 fantasy points, and has done so for the past three years.I would take Arian Foster higher but his current injury dropped him two spots. With your first pick in the draft you ideally want a player who is going into the season healthy, and who you believe will be playing all year. While Foster is not playing in the preseason, I believe he will have a great season. I would rather take a chance on Foster producing big numbers then draft any of the other running backs slotted after him on my draft board.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 255.82 | 261 | 221.9 | 264.8 |
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5th PICK
Marshawn Lynch
Lynch had an excellent year in 2012. He had 250.6 fantasy points. I believe that this kind of performance is repeatable. Some people are projecting Lynch to not repeat these numbers, I believe he will. The Seahawks finished 3rd in Rushing Yards, and 9th in total points. Russel Wilson's success at quarterback will not hinder Lynch, it will help him. The more Seattle's offense clicks the more yards and touchdowns Lynch can gain. In 2012 the Seahawks had two games where they absolutely annihilated their opponents. In those two games Lynch still put up remarkable numbers with limited opportunities. When they beat the Cardinals 58-0, he had 11 attempts, 30.8 fantasy points. When they beat the Bills 50-17 he had 10 attempts, 18.7 fantasy points. Lynch gets his numbers in blow outs, close games, any game. I believe his success will continue.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 212.33 | 233 | 224.3 | 250.6 |
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6th PICK
Ray Rice
Ray Rice is sliding in many fantasy football Mock Drafts. I believe he still has what it takes to be a Top 5 running back. Rice scored 296.8 fantasy points two years ago, 222.1 last year. Analysts are curious if the emergence of Bernard Pierce will damage Rice's output. I do not think it will be significant enough to stop me from picking him. Baltimore has lost Dennis Pita to injury, Anquan Boldin to the 49ers, and do not have the most amazing WRs in the league. Ray Rice could see more receptions this year, and I believe will exceed the 222 fantasy points he put up last year. Hey, diddle diddle, Ray Rice up the middle!
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 203.58 | 232 | 225.0 | 221.1 |
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7th PICK
Alfred Morris
Alfred Morris had an amazing rookie year. He entered the season as a sixth round draft pick and emerged as the NFL's second leading rusher. He finished 5th in fantasy points for a running back with 246.3. His main knock would be he only had eleven receptions for 77 yards with zero touchdowns. Although he is not a receiving threat, he is an amazing running back to have on your fantasy squad. He rushed for 1606 yards. He is a vicious runner and plays in an dynamic offense with RG III. Draft him if you have the chance!
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 206.16 | 219 | 232.2 | 246.3 |
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8th PICK
Calvin Johnson
Calvin Johnson is coming off a record breaking season. He hauled in 122 catches for 1,964 yards. He only scored five touchdowns and still managed to put up 226.4 fantasy points. My philosophy is to make sure I have an elite running back while drafting. Calvin Johnson is the only wide receiver who I would take in the first round. I believe taking Calvin Johnson in the 8th spot is worth doing. He will pull in numbers that warrant his drafting. Having Calvin Johnson is the safest bet you can have for production at the wide receiver position. If you draft him here you must make sure you shore up your running game in the upcoming rounds.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 211.10 | 236 | 234.5 | 220.4 |
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9th PICK
LeSean McCoy
LeSean McCoy has had some huge fantasy years. In 2011 he had 1,309 rushing yards, 17 rushing touchdowns, 315 receive yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. He gained 282.4 fantasy yards. He missed games last year due to a concussion, and the Eagles had a dreadful year. The Eagles now have a new coach, and McCoy could deliver an excellent fantasy year. He managed 151.3 points in 12 games, that equates to 12.58 fantasy points a game. The Eagles will utilize McCoy under Chip Kelly and if you can draft him as late as ninth do it!
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 218.38 | 200 | 223.1 | 151.3 |
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10th PICK
Trent Richardson
Richardson had a solid rookie campaign. He rushed for 957 yards, 11 touchdowns, and earned 203 fantasy points. He is clearly the number one running back for the Browns. He should get plenty of touches this year, he is a threat running and catching the ball. Last year he rushed 267 times, and hauled in 51 catches on 70 targets. Richardson battled injuries and saw limited touches early last year, he also missed the entire preseason. If he can stay healthy, the sky is the limit. If the Browns can stay in games and muster any sort of offense he should exceed his numbers from last year by a large amount.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 223.03 | 226 | 213.5 | 203.7 |
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11th PICK
Jamaal Charles
Jamaal Charles finished with 210.9 fantasy points last year, finishing eighth in fatasy points for running backs. Two years ago he suffered an ACL tear in week two and missed the remainder of the season. Charles was able to return strong, and although he was distant from his 241.5 fantasy points he achieved in 2010, he still had a productive year. His issue holding back his fantasy point scoring is a lack of touchdowns. He is a threat both rushing and catching the ball, and could have a very productive year. Andy Reid is the new coach in KC, and Alex Smith is the new quarterback. Both of these factors could lead in an increase in Charles' numbers.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 229.06 | 228 | 222.1 | 210.9 |
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12th PICK
Matt Forte
Matt Forte's forte is not scoring touchdowns. However he does put up a respectable amount of fantasy points. Forte put up five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown last year. If he scored more touchdowns he could be a true fantasy beast. He 1,094 yards rushing and 340 yards receiving. Hopefully new Bears Co-Ordinator Marc Tressman utilizes Forte, and he amasses more fantasy points. Forte is a solid pick at the end of the first round. He could deliver over 200 fantasy points and at the low end should deliver 170.
| Yahoo Projected Points | ESPN Projected Points | FF Today Projected Points | 2012 Points |
| 209.67 | 182 | 196.8 | 179.4 |
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