Fantasy Football Strategy 2012

 UPDATED 2014 GUIDE

I have been analyzing and writing about fantasy football since June. I had written about my fantasy team last year, however I was not as into the analytical and strategy side as I currently am. The fantasy draft season is almost over and I have decided to compile links to my various articles on one page.

These numbers are based off of fantasy points from last year. I obtained the stats I used to make my calculations from fftoolbox.com .

• Top 5 QB's =386.66 QB's 5-10=288.24
• Point difference of 98.42
• Top 12=323.05 13-24=203.225
• Point Difference 119.82
  

• Top 5 RB's= 264.58 RB's 5-10=195.08
• Point difference of 69.5 
• Top 12=221.88 13-24=163.1
• Point Difference of 58.78
  

• Top 5 WR=218.48 5-10=178.44
• Point Difference=40.04
• Top 12=192.15 Next 12=145.57
• Point Difference= 46.57
  

• Top 5 TE=165.92 5-10=116.26
• Point Difference=49.66
• Top 12=134.65 13-24=81.76
• Point Difference=52.89
  

These numbers could be replicated using Yahoo's Points, ESPN's Points, really any point system unless it was horribly balanced. These numbers are the foundation of how I draft. The key to these numbers is the point differences. It is important to have a solid all around team. Ideally you would have the best player at every position. That is simply not possible. Point differences give us plenty of essential information that can help with forming strategies. These numbers are why I will personally not draft a WR in the second round of a fantasy draft, the only exception for me is Calvin Johnson. These numbers are why I believe it is key to have a elite quarterback. These numbers are why I believe you need two solid running backs, with the hopes of having one in the top 10. These numbers are why I believe Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham warrant early round selections.

2012 Fantasy Football Strategy Articles

Quarterback Importance: Why Aaron Rodgers is worth a high pick 

Tight End Drafting and Value: Gronk and Jimmy

Importance of Running Backs

The Calvin Johnson Rule: Wide Receiver Drafting

My 10 Person Live Draft with Max PPG

General Fantasy Football Tips

10th Pick.10 Person League: Various Strategies (Mock Drafts)

General Strategy Mock Drafts (From June some picks I would no longer make, strategy still solid)

Gronk and Jimmy: Elite Tight Ends

Tight End Strategy Fantasy Football 2012

Rob Gronkowski had 17 receiving touchdowns last year, and 1327 yards receiving. Jimmy Graham had 11 touchdowns and 1310 yard receiving. They both had exceptional years. This year Gronkowski is predicted to put up 195 points. That would put him 1 point ahead of Julio Jones. This would make him the second best non QB or non RB option. The other interesting aspect of the Tight End position is there are only so many who produce many points. We will examine this soon. Before that we will look at how strong Graham and Gronkowski performed last year.

2011 Fantasy Points from Yahoo

Top 5 WR

1. Calvin Johnson 263.20
2. Jordy Nelson 216.30
3. Wes Welker 213.90
4. Victor Cruz 205.90
5. Larry Fitzgerald 189.10

Top 5 TE

1. Rob Gronkowski 240.90
2. Jimmy Graham 195
3. Aaron Hernandez 135.50
4. Tony Gonzalez 129.50
5. Jermichael Finley 124.70

As you can see Gronkowski put up tons of fantasy points. He was second to Calvin Johnson in terms of non RB/QB players. In 2011, Rob Gronkowski had a better fantasy year then EVERY SINGLE WR besides Calvin Johnson.  Below are the predictions for this year, all courtesy of Yahoo.

 2012 Predictions from Yahoo

Top 5 WR

1. Calvin Johnson 252
2. Julio Jones 194
3. Hakeem Nicks 181
4. Greg Jennings 180
5. Larry Fitzgerald 177

Top 5 TE

1. Rob Gronkowski 195
2. Antonio Gates 174
3. Jimmy Graham 173
4. Aaron Hernandez 141
5. Jason Witten 126

I am unsure if Gates will put up 174 points this year. Even if he does, the Tight End position has a steep drop off once it goes beyond the top three. Elite tight ends are worth a second round pick. Gronkowski and Graham can give you points that the high end receivers do, the other players in your league will not have the same kind of production from the Tight Ends they draft. The point difference between the elite tight ends and the rest is large. If you see Rob Gronkowski in the second round and believe he will help your team draft him. In a ten man league I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers in the first, Gronkowski in the second, and Marshawn Lynch in the third. That was an extremely successful draft. If you can draft Gronkowski or Graham in the second round do it. You can find 150-170 point wide receivers to meet your needs, there is not an abundance of Tight Ends.  Gronkowski could put up well over 195 fantasy points, Graham and Gates also have the potential for big years. Aaron Hernandez is also a good later round option. Tight Ends are an interesting position in fantasy. There are only so many decent ones. It is an important position to have a decent player, but it is an incredible advantage if you can get an elite one.

The Importance Of Running Backs

Averages!

• Top 5 RB's= 264.58 RB's 5-10=195.08
• Point difference of 69.5 
• Top 12=221.88 13-24=163.1
• Point Difference of 58.78
  

• Top 5 WR=218.48 5-10=178.44
• Point Difference=40.04
• Top 12=192.15 Next 12=145.57
• Point Difference= 46.57
  

The numbers above display the bigger gap in talent at the RB postion compared to WR. There are many mid range wide receivers who can get you a healthy amount of points. Running backs are a more limited commodity. The 20^th ranked RB by predicted points is BenJarvus Green-Ellis at 171 fantasy points. The 1^st ranked runningback is Arian Foster at 305 points, 2^nd is Lesean McCoy at 266 points. If you are in a league with a flex I would recommend attempting to draft three starting runningbacks. Runningbacks who get a lot of carries and touchdowns put up more consistent numbers from week to week then secondary receivers. It is important to draft a runningback in the first two rounds. This is especially true in a 12 man league. In 12 men leagues runningbacks go extremely fast. I participated in three mock drafts recently. These are the runningbacks who were drafted in the first two rounds of twelve team mock drafts.

Running Backs Drafted In 1st and 2nd Round

Arian Foster

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy

Darren Mcfadden

Chris Johnson

Matt Forte

Marshawn Lynch

DeMarco Murray

Adrian Peterson

Steven Jackson

Maurice Jones Drew

Jamal Charles

Fred Jackson

Ryan Mathews

You want atleast one of these runningbacks on your team. Even if you plan to use a WR in your flex spot, it is still of great importance to have atleast one good runningback. Matt Forte is predicted to put up 218 points. Shonn Greene is predicted to put up 171. The difference in having Matt Forte to Shonn Greene is much more significant then having Brandon Marshall 155 points compared to Wes Welker 136 points. It is much easier to find receivers who can fulfill your needs later in the draft then it is to find running backs.

Quarterback Importance: Why Aaron Rodgers is worth a 1st round pick

The traditional view in fantasy football has been to grab a high point producing runningback in the first round. I recently grabbed Aaron Rodgers as the fifth pick in a ten man league. The league rewards 6 points for TD's, some leagues only reward 4 points. Regardless of the points given for touchdowns, an elite quarterback is a serious asset to your fantasy team. I pulled the numbers from the fftoolbox.com with their 2011 fantasy points. I was able to generate these numbers.

Averages!

• Top 5 QB's =386.66
• QB's 5-10=288.24
• Point difference of 98.42

The average of the Top 5 QB's is 386.66, the average for the 5^th to 10^th fantasy point producers is 288.24. It is clearly a big difference in having a top 5 QB on your team versus someone from the 6 to 10 range.

I believe Aaron Rodgers is going to have a great year. On Yahoo he is predicted to put up 425 points, the next best quarterback is 361 points (Drew Brees). Rodgers is definitely worth a first round pick. I also believe Brady, and possibly Brees warrant an early pick. Brady and Brees have different projections depending on which website you reference, I personally believe Brady will have the better year. Drafting a QB in the first depends on how many teams are in your league. In a 10 man league I would definitely take Rodgers or Brady in the first. In a 12 man league I would take Rodgers or Brady but be worried about my running game due to the two extra people picking in the first round. In a ten man league there will be opportunities to take a RB in the second round. In a 12 man league the options might be a bit more sparse. Aaron Rodgers is a good draft pick. The difference between having him and a guy like Matt Ryan is over 100 projected points. Taking a quarterback in the first round is fine, you just have to be prepared to draft very intelligently. You have to have several potential picks each round, and you CAN NOT ignore your runningback situation. Here are the Top 10 Quarterbacks for this year based off Yahoo projections. I personally believe Tom Brady is projected to low.  To summarize; it is a good thing to draft an elite quarterback, just be prepared to draft smart, and look for valuable players in every round.

Top 10 Quarterbacks based off Yahoo Predictions

1. Aaron Rodgers 426
2. Drew Brees 361
3. Matt Stafford 337
4. Cam Newton 335
5. Tom Brady 332
6. Peyton Manning 310
7. Matt Ryan 309
8. Tony Romo 304
9. Phillip Rivers 282
10. Eli Manning 276

The Calvin Johnson Rule and Wide Receiver Drafting

The Calvin Johnson Rule

And it was written... I will not draft a wide receiver in the first two rounds... Unless he bears the nickname MEGATRON. 

If Calvin Johnson does what he is predicted to do this year, he will put up the 20^th most fantasy points. Who is in front of him? 17 quarterbacks and 2 runningbacks. Yahoo believes he will put up 249 fantasy points. The next closest WR is over 50 points behind him, it's Julio Jones. Calvin Johnson is the only wide receiver who I believe warrants a draft pick in the first two rounds. I have seen Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall go in the second round. The problem with grabbing receivers in the second round is you are missing out on other more important commodities. The point difference amongst the average of the Top 5 WR vs the 6-10 WR is the smallest. Whether or not you think Marshall and Julio Jones will have big years, it is only really worth taking either of those WR's if you think they will put up Calvin Johnson like numbers. I would much rather grab a runningback or elite quarterback in the first and second rounds and then rely on receivers like Percy Harvin, Wes Welker, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker. There are plenty of great receivers who can be had in the third and fourth rounds. Don't waste a pick in the first two, unless it's Calvin Johnson. You will see from the numbers below that Calvin is truly an exceptional point producer and far exceeds other wide receivers.

Last Years Top 5 WR (Yahoo Fantasy Points)

• Calvin Johnson 263.20
• Jordy Nelson 216.30
• Wes Welker 213.90
• Victor Cruz 205.90
• Larry Fitzgerald 189.10

Top 5 WR Predicted Points 2012 (Yahoo Fantasy Points)

• Calvin Johnson 252
• Julio Jones 194
• Hakeem Nicks 181
• Greg Jennings 180
• Larry Fitzgerald 177